IBPickin

0-5.5   -13 units even. Needed one goal in every game.  Still up a few units this week, but it doesn't feel like it.

My luck is so bad today the feed isn't even working on ESPN+ to watch Betis. They scored in the 3rd minute. It would not surprise me at all to not score again. See y'all tomorrow. I'm going to watch golf and forget about this day. GL.

Well, it's an 0fer unless Real Madrid gets a miracle. -13 units if they don't . Around -1 unit of they do. Disallowed goals, red cards(by Mbappe no less). Disaster.

Last add:

BETIS TT over 1.5 -110  3.3 to win 3

Betis -.25  1.25 to win 1

Betis unbeaten in 9 and have scored 2+ in 7 of them. Big game at home. They are playing all the big guns. Maybe a 10 unit play under different circumstances. GL.

Adding 2 more units to Real Madrid

REAL MADRID TT over 1.5 -130  2.3 to win 2

Odds dropped. That's probably not good, but I will add 2 more at this price. GL.

Add:

REAL MADRID TT over 1.5 -145  4.35 to win 3

They may believe they can come back down 3-0 midweek to Arsenal, but the La Liga games are must win. No Bellingham and Vini starting, but Mbappe and Rodrygo are out there. 1.5 is an auto play for me. They have to stay 3-4 points behind Barcelona until they meet next month to take any shot at the title.

I have 4-5 more plays, but the way this day started for me, I will likely pull the plug if this loses. Maybe Betis TT. I'm up about 20 units this week, and I could potentially be down around 10 for the day if this loses. Know when it's not your day. GL.

Woke up to 1 1/2 losers. No goals last 70 minutes 

Add:

CHELSEA TT over 2.5  -125    1.25 to win 1

No way Chelsea is blowing a 3 goal lead at home in the 2nd leg of the conference league. Goal differential may matter for top 5 in the Premier League though. I like the lineup today and think they run it up as much as possible. GL.

YTD: 56-37.5   +38.85 units

Yesterday 4-3-1 +3.05 units

Bouanga turned a potential bad day into a positive one late... a 12+ unit swing with one strike of the foot to hit his ATG prop and the LAFC TT. 

Playing these early.

ATALANTA/BOLOGNA BTTS  -135  2.7 to win 2

ATL/BOL over 2.25 -130  1.3 to win 1

A win for either side would put them in 3rd in Serie A...a loss 5th or 6th. Bologna has scored in 6 straight with at least 2 in 5 of those. Atalanta has not scored in 3 straight, but I think they get at least one at home today and both teams will score with so much on the line. 

AZ/HERACLES BTTS -145 1.45 to win 1

AZ was shutout last match and has not won in 5 games but did score 8 in the other 4. They are also a .5 favorite. Heracles was shutout in a friendly at home 3 weeks ago.  Before that, it was September since they were last shut out at home. I would play this more if the juice wasn't so high.

Will likely be on Betis and Madrid TTs after lineups, maybe Chelsea and Lyon. Tricky with all of them having return legs in  CL and Europa leagues. Looking at a couple  BTTS in England. GL.

2-3-1 today -2.25 units. Sliding after winning the first 2.

Last adds for the day:

LAFC TT over 1.5 -165    4.95 to win 3

BOUANGA anytime goal  +115     2 to win 2.3

I'm thinking LAFC will be angry at home after blowing it in Miami. Bouanga is long overdue and passed up some shots the other night he normally takes. He'll be letting them fly tonight. There's always the chance of a PK goal for him as well. GL.

2-1. Got the goals from Bayern but not the defense

ADD: BARCELONA 1H ML/JUVENTUS FG ML +120  1.8 to win 1.5

Like Inter earlier, I think Barcelona wants to put this to bed early. Juventus scares me most of the time but should get a win today at home against a bottom feeder. 

Maybe some more MLS later. GL.

Bayern under fire all of the sudden. Not a good start to 2nd half.

Add:

MINNESOTA UNITED PK -135  5.4 to win 4

MINNESOTA UNITED TT over 1.5 +125  2 to win 2.5

Toronto has not won in 15 straight games dating back to last September. I really like this Minnesota United team and will gladly take them at a PK. They have several goal scoring options as well and should get plenty of chances. GL.

2-0 today

Add:

BAYERN 2H -.75 -125  1.25 to win 1

It looks like just a matter of time before Bayern scores. Dortmund doesn't have much punch today. GL.

Add:

INTER MILAN 1H ML -130 1.95 to win 1.5

Tricky spot for Inter after a huge win on the road at Bayern with the return leg Wednesday. No rest today, as they need this one to keep clear of Napoli as the games dwindle down on the season. Looking for them to come out and put this away early. GL.

YTD: 52-34.5   +35.8 units

Yesterday: 3-0 +6.1 units

No complaints here. Both TT's hit before half, and Leipzig tried to blow a 3 goal lead but didn't. Even Reijnders scored.

Slept in after seeing Billy Strings last night. One small play for now.

MONACO ML -110 1.1 to win 1

They can jump Marseille for 2nd with a win. Taking a small shot here at home with Gouri on the bench. GL

YTD: 49-34.5   +29.7 units

Yesterday: 7.5-7  +6.35 units   Was up 6.4 after the 2 early Europa games thanks to Chelsea. Should have just stopped and saved all the angst, but that's no fun! 

Going to an out of town show Friday and won't be around. Playing these:

AC MILAN TT over 1.5 -105  3.15 to win 3

I swear sometimes Conceicao is trying to get fired with the horrible lineup decisions he makes, but it's do or die time. He should have figured out Felix isn't the answer after scoring in his first game with them and nothing since. Gimenez is doubtful, so it should be Abraham, Leao, Reijnders, and Pulisic. Hopefully he has the sense to start them. Not starting Leao is criminal. I don't trust their defense enough to play them to win even though they need it or Udinese's offense enough to play the game total. Just score twice please. I lean Reijnders ATG around +350 as long as he's starting. He usually gets decent cracks at it and is due.

LEIPZIG PK -135 2.7 to win 2

LEIPZIG TT over 1.5 +110  1 to win 1.1

Leipzig need to win to stay in the top 4 race with only 6 left. Wolfsburg is only 3-6-5 at home this year. That's 3 of 14. Getting Leipzig at a PK seems like a deal.

GL. See you Saturday.

5.5-7 Today +4.35 units

Red card killed Rangers/Bilbao. Can't believe Bilbao couldn't score. I wish Inaki would have taken the PK. Might have hit both player props.  Betis played with their food too long. XG over 3 and nothing 2nd half. Man U/Lyon game saved the afternoon with BTTS and Almada scoring at +440.  Glad to have only given a couple units back from the big hit on Chelsea earlier. 

I'm going to give one stab at the Copa Libertadores tonight. If it hits, maybe an 8:30 play. 

INTERNACIONAL -1 -105 1.05 to win 1

INTERNACIONAL/ATLETICO over 2.25 -125 1.25 to win 1

Internacional has not lost in their last 15 matches. They put up crooked numbers in 5 of 6 of those that were at home.  Worst case, 2 goals from them will get a split. GL. 

Adding 2 small props

INAKI WILLIAMS ANYTIME GOAL +220   .5 to win 1.1

THIAGO ALMADA ANYTIME GOAL +440   .5 to win 2.2

GL.

1-1 today +6.4 units. Thank you Chelsea and Madueke. Lazio was a bad pick. Bodo Glimt should advance. They look much, much better. Maybe different on the road next week.

Afternoon adds:

BILBAO/RANGERS BTTS -130 1.8 to win 1.5

BILBAO/RANGERS over 2.5  -105   1.05 to win 1

BILBAO TT over 1.5 even  1 to win 1

Rangers can score proficiently but are equally good at conceding. I hope the Williams brothers are feeling good today.

LYON/MAN U BTTS -150  1.5 to win 1

LYON +.25 -130  1.3 to win 1

Not the Man U of old, but I think they can net one. Lyon has firepower too, and I will take a shot on them at home.

BETIS -1.75 -115  2.3 to win 2

BETIS GAME OVER 3 -140 1.4 to win 1

Don't see why Cucho isn't available, but there is still plenty of offense. They should roll.

TOTTENHAM ML/FIORENTINA ML parlay  1 to win 1.5

Just a little action parlay for plus money. GL.

Adding:

CHELSEA -1 +120 2H  2 to win 2.4

Warsaw showing nothing. I'm trusting Chelsea to bring in Jackson and Madueke here. GL.

YTD: 41.5-27.5   +23.35 units

Yesterday:  5-2  +3.5 units 

Today early:

CHELSEA -1 -105  5.25  to win 5

Legia Warsaw has a few injuries and suspensions, and Chelsea is finally getting healthy with Jackson and Madueke back. Neither is starting today or I would take them 1H and possibly even make it a rare 10 unit play, but I think they will come on at some point and make an impact. They should not lose this game. Push at worst. Lean over.

LAZIO ML +135  1 to win 1.35

Bodo/Glimt is pretty stingy, but I will take a small shot at the better team at plus money. 

Probably a couple more this afternoon. GL.

2 small action adds. I'm bored and can't cap South American soccer 

MESSI anytime goal even   .5 to win .5

BOUANGA anytime goal +250 .5 to win 1.25

Best players for each team and likely PK takers. One of them should score, hopefully both. I would play Bouanga at this price 90% of the time. GL.

2-1 today +.5  

Night adds:

PUMAS/VANCOUVER BTTS -110  1.1 to win 1

PUMAS/VANCOUVER OVER 2.25 even  2 to win 2

Vancouver have scored in 15 of 16 this year and Pumas 17 of 20. I could have waited to see if the total dropped to 2, but I went ahead locked it in at 2.25 with no juice. Pondering Miami to advance at +120, but will wait for lineups. GL.