brn2loslive2win

Is this a common theme in your betting strategy? To sell multiple points? Are the amount of points that you sell based on key numbers? What would make you sell to -7 instead of -6.5? Would you agree that selling to -6.5 gives you a better chance of winning(understood that the price is significantly better when you lay 7)? Would you consider in that scenario to make two bets, one at -6.5 and one at -7 just as added protection?

Ty for the insight. I always enjoy reading your posts 

5-7

-0.93u

As posted in last week’s thread:

Sea -7 -105 1u

TB -7 -105 1u

Cin +4.5 -110 1u

GB -8 -110 .5u

Adds:

GB -7.5 -105 .5u

Car +6 -110 1u

LAR +3.5 -112 1u

Was -3.5 -110 .5u

Looks like the under was the play

@jowchoo

 So only one anchor in Seattle this week?

5-6

+0.22u

LV +3.5 pending 

Early plays for wk 3:

Cin +4.5 -110 1u

GB -8 -110 .5u

Sea -7 -105 1u

TB -7 -105 1u

2-2 

-0.2u

As posted in last week’s thread-

Cin -3.5 -105 2u

Bal -11.5 -110 .75u

Dal -4.5 -110 .75u

Ten +5.5 -110 .75u

Det -4.5 -105 1u

Pit -3 -105 .5u

LV +3.5 -115 1u

Added:

AZ -6.5 -115 1u

Yes I spent an entire season doing these with very little success. The question always becomes which side to tease. For example, this weekend you could have Baltimore +1.5 or Cleveland +24.5. Either of those could fail miserably. 

Last week you may have had Miami +14.5. Loss.

If it was that easy you’d be hearing about people winning on these regularly. 

You’re also going to need 5-6 teams to keep your vig at a reasonable cost. 4 team 13 point teasers will cost you.

@DogbiteWilliams

@jowchoo

 What do you guys do when you have two conflicting queries? Skip the bet?

I’ll say this, when you win people get over the strange ways that you present yourself. But when you lose with painted fingernails on a field full of warriors…you look pretty fckn stupid.

@UnderdogKing

 Nice work congrats on a winning first week 

I think it’s worth noting that you went 14/18 78% on the teaser sides. Totals were the killer this week. Ty for putting in the work and for sharing with the forum. GL going forward. 

Do you expect that your weekly teasers will come at a price of -125?

@jowchoo

 With tonight’s game you have a chance to go roughly 65% no? 

Have you tracked the success of the satellites sides vs totals? If so do you mind sharing?

It certainly was and goes to show why betting early can be so critical to your success. Bet ahead of the line movement and find indicators of which way it will go and you will be rewarded.

HFA was worth less than 3 before Covid. And it’s different for every team imo and should be accounted for differently for every road opponent. There is no standardized amount for HFA.

@bigred84

 Definitely. What had to happen between the deflected TD and the Derrick Henry fumble was the only way buffalo comes out on top. Fluke plays happen. It is what it is. Baltimore played a great game on the road and was the better team.

2-2

-0.2u 

Next week:

Cin -3.5 -105 2u

Bal -11.5 -110 .75u

Dal -4.5 -110 .75u

Ten +5.5 -110 .75u

Det -4.5 -105 1u

Pit -3 -105 .5u

LV +3.5 -115 1u

@vanzack

 GL this year VZ

This is a sad day for covers. Vanzack has done nothing but give valuable insight on sports betting for years on covers. The fact that year after year people came on covers, trolled his posts, kicked him while he was down, and disrespected one of the most intelligent people on this forum just speaks to the overall quality of the humans on this planet. What a shame. Ty Vanzack for everything you’ve done for the insufferable covers community over the years.

I’d like to know if I’m approaching this with the correct mindset. Along with my usual weekly wagers I participate in a high stakes pick’em pool (ATS) with weekly and season long prizes. I take a similar approach to all of my wagers. 

1. Use multiple avenues to handicap games (personal power ratings, professional power ratings, +EV)

2. Line shopping (best price, best number)

3. Betting early and attempting to find CLV 

My questions to some of the more experienced guys on covers are these-

1. In a pick’em pool should all picks be considered (+100/-100) even money wagers? As a correct pick =1 point and technically no vig is paid on a wrong pick. 

2. The lines on each game are out and locked on Tuesday of every week. This gives me an opportunity to get excellent CLV. Should this be a determining factor on a selection? 

Ex: pool spread is Phi-6.5/Dal +6.5

Actual closing line Phi-8 -110 (give or take) 

Does it make sense that the mindset is the opportunity to bet (select) Phi -6.5 at +100? In which case Phi must be the play. My personal opinion would have been to take Dallas +8.5 -110 in a real wager. But with the opportunity to play Philly-6.5 with no implied vig I selected Philly and took a loss.

For those of you who understand what I’m getting at, is this the logical way to approach this type of gambling situation? FYI I took a beating in this pool last year taking underdogs, even by taking advantage of better lines in a majority of games.

0-0

NO +6 -110 1u

Det +2.5 -110 1u

Ind -2 +100 1u

Was -6 -110 1u