Bigballer

Got roughed up last time posting going 0-2

Still up overall with a 6-3 record

Rolling with a doggie today Angels +120

Adding TB Rays -130

Pepiot has been stellar the last 2 months, and TB may be one of the best teams over the last month. 16-6 last 22 games, beating some good teams like the Tigers and Mets. I like this trend, TB 13-5 following a game where they gave up less than 1 run. Balt is also 3-7 following 1 day of rest. 

Some leans below. I do like the TB Under but rarely will I ever bet a side and an Under on the same game.

Mets ML
TB Under 8.5
SD Under 9
Yanks -1.5

6-1-1 record since posting, all of those at -120 juice or under and a nice doggie hitting the other day  

Sticking with the White Sox Game 1 Home overs trend which is winning at a 11-2 clip this year. I'm sure this will even out at some point, but Roupp has not been impressive on the road this year, likewise with Civale overall.

Chisox Over 9

Cheers 

May add one of my leans later

Marlins 

I have unusual amount of games I like today, I typically limit my plays to 1-2 plays per day.

Going to add 1 more play, and post the other plays I like

Tiges/A's Over 8.5 - Had this over yesterday, back to the well here. Tigers have hit 10 straight overs, I see this continuing. Tigers 7-1 Over after scoring 10+ previous game, A's are 12-4-2 Over after allowing 10+ previous game. I like Lopez, but he's young, and that A's bullpen keeps getting hit. Over is the way to look

Leans:

Rays ML

Rays Under 9

Marlins +1.5

Philly 1st 5 -1/2

Mets ML

Sea/Min Over 7.5

Adding one more...

Jays/Cleve Over 8

Jays are 10-2 Over after scoring 8+ runs previous game

Have been running well since posting plays, 5-0-1 record with most of those cashing easily

Taking a flier on the White Sox at half my usually bet size. It is the Chisox after all, which is never a great bet. 

This is a fade of Gallen, and AZ's last game of a long road trip. Not to mention, Suarez and Carroll being out of the lineup.

I usually have supporting trends, but nothing notable for this one. Chisox have surprisingly bounced back well at home off game 2 losses however.

Chisox +142 

Been cruising as of late 

Both teams coming off a rest day, they're a combined 14-1 to the over after 1 day of rest (Tigers 7-1, As 7-0-1)

Skubal is on the mound, so I'd look for most of the runs to come from the Tigers

Tigers 4-2-2 Over when -200 fave or more

As 4-0 Over when +200 dog or more (Small sample., but A's have given up an average of 11.7 runs in those 4 games)

Took the Over 7 -125 

Should note, there could be T-storms at some point, so a delay is possible

Another winner 

Brings Chisox Home Game 1 overs to 11-2 on the season 

White Sox are 10-2 to the over in Game 1s at home. 5-1 to the Over first game back at home off a Road Series.

A trend like this could eventually even out, but the White Sox do play unusually well in Game 1s, especially at home. They actually have a winning record 7-4 game 1s at home.

Shane Smith 5-2 Over at home this year

E-Rod 5-1 Over away this year

Hit the over 9 already this morning

Tom Hanahan Over Ump 9-3 to the over this year.

That may even out at some point, but I see a number of trends supporting the over today.

Stros 8-4 to the over after scoring 1 or fewer

Halos 6-2 to the over after scoring 9+

Looking at 1 more play, Stros/A's Under 10

A lot of over trends supporting A's, and some Under trends supporting Houston here. But with two young pitchers pitching well, and an Under Ump, I'll take a shot with the under on a higher total tonight.

Looking at Mets/Braves Under 9 

Strider is 1-1 at home O/U, but 5-1 to the Under this year in all his starts

Holmes is 5-2 to the Under in Away games, 8-6 to the under in all starts

ATL is 6-2-1 to the Under, after allowing 1 or fewer runs the previous game

NYM are 6-3 to the Under after scoring 1 or less runs previous game

This trend I like particularly, NYM are 10-3 to the under in away games, after a loss, and when playing the same opponent

No sweat bet  

Ryne Nelson 5-1 to the over in Away games this year

Gausman 5-1 to the over in Home games this year

Jays are 9-2 to the over after scoring 8+ runs the previous game

Detroit 13-11 when + money this year. It's been profitable