Truest Championship

Excited for this week at Philly Cricket. Gettin this in now, write up later 

Daniel Berger (45-1)

Adding another outright. I’ll be back tonight with a write up..

Hideki Matsuyama (30-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Daniel Berger (+280)

This week I’ve had the pleasure to research and break down a new pga tour golf course which is refreshing. The Truist Championship will be held at Philly Cricket club which is a golf course with a lot of history and one I’m excited to see the worlds best navigate. Philly Cricket Club is a par 70 measuring out at just 7,119 yards. It’s a parklands style golf course with subtle undulations in Pennsylvania that is relatively simple off the tee and on approach, while the real challenge comes as you get closer to the greens. While I don’t think this will be a brutally tough challenge for these guys given the fact it is a short course with a lot of wedges into greens, but it certainly has its quirks on and around the greens that should give a lot of these guys fits. I’ll break down below what I believe to be key this week based on research and content that I’ve digested.

This golf course is quite easy off the tee, with wide fairways and lack of a huge penalty when missing them. The primary defense off the tee are some of the tricky bunkering that is littered throughout. The rough is relatively thick which in combination with the bunkers would lead me to focus more on accuracy off the tee than distance. But it is certainly not a pre requisite for me as missing the fairways appears to be far from a death sentence at this venue. With this being such a short course I don’t see a path for longer players off the tee to gain any significant edge. Shorter players will still have a ton of wedges into greens. Off the tee is not something I’ll be putting a lot of weight on but I do think more accurate players will have a little bit of an edge as they will likely have better angles into these small green surfaces.

I think approach play, as usual, will be the most reliable way to separate on this golf course. As I mentioned above, these green surfaces are quite small and have very difficult green side surrounds. Guys that can consistently dial in with the wedges will be rewarded by not having to scramble from tricky spots and difficult bunkers into firm and fast greens. Not to mention the subtle undulations on these greens will require players to be precise on approach in order to hit the correct quadrants for manageable birdie looks. I expect players that are flushing the wedges this week to climb up the leaderboard and the majority of my weight will go into recent approach play and long term proximity from 100-150 yds.

The aspect of this golf course that will truly challenge these players are the green side surrounds and the fast, bent grass green surfaces. Lots of difficult green side bunkering and chipping into small, quick greens will be a chore this week for these guys. Even with the fact that these guys will be hitting a ton of wedges into greens, these  greens being so small and fast with undulations should result in players having to get up and down pretty often. I am certainly looking for players with a serviceable around the green game. I will also be looking for guys that have had past success on putting on fast, undulating greens (Augusta National comes to mind). Overall I want players that are dialed in on approach, good long term wedge players, and a solid short game. This is a tricky week as we have not seen this golf course in pga tour play, but super excited to see how this place plays.

He was on an absolute heater in January. Hideki still has some gas in the tank, I would be surprised if he doesn’t bag another win before the end of the season.

Thanks for the write up, good detail in there.

He absolutely flushed the irons last time out. And maybe the best in the world around the greens. I think off the tee will be devalued this week which also plays into his hands as he’s neither super long or accurate.  I like how this sets up for him, just needs to get the putter going 

Top 20 (ties included):

Brian Harman (+160)

Denny McCarthy (65-1)

Top 20 (+140)

Spieth +2950…

S.Stevens 130/1…

M.Thorbjornsen 145/1…

Break a legg…

After scrutinizing your write-up, I took a look at PGA short game stats and bought some stock in:

Rai

Si Woo Kim

Min Woo Lee

Sung Jae Im

Old friend Shane Lowry (I root for the guy, and bet on him to win The Open years ago)

Which leads to the question, Lowry has been a regular in Top 25s and occasionally Top 10s the last two years, but hasn’t won in a while. Is he due or is he cruising without taking home trophies?

I thought he was due last year. Then this year. Now I’m wondering if I am just wrong.

I really think he’s due to win one and I like this golf course for him. Always a good bet on a short set up as his wedge game is legit. He’s in consideration for me this week 

Just a PSA. This should be a pretty wet golf course as it has gotten quite a bit of rain. What I thought should be firm and fast greens may not come to fruition. Probly even a bigger emphasis on approach play and putting in my opinion 

Full card, GL 

Outrights:

Hideki Matsuyama (30-1)

Shane Lowry (37-1)

Daniel Berger (45-1)

Denny McCarthy (65-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Russell Henley (+230)

Hideki Matsuyama (+240)

Daniel Berger (+280)

Top 20 (ties included):

Denny McCarthy (+140)

Brian Harman (+160)

Akshay Bhatia (+175)

Hi Rollz; I have a proposition for you and could you please contact me at B O B B Y W 6 0 @ Y A H O O or 7 0 2 4 1 5 5 2 2 9 & if the latter please text 1st so I recognize who it is...Thx

Positionals not looking particularly great, but we do have Lowry in the thick of things. Let’s see if he can hold up on the weekend 

Good luck with Lowry. 

Me, I'd love an epic Nick Taylor comeback!

I would not mind that. Ive got him in DFS this week quite a bit. Thanks my friend

What a bummer, thought we had the winner with Lowry and he once again fades on the weekend. Nothing stings more than a 2nd place on an outright. Positionals all fall apart as well for essentially a nothing burger week.  I was able to get a hedge down on straka to make a chunk of my money back but still a losing week nonetheless. Excited for the PGA next week and hopefully a bounce back 

Thanks Rollz, that was a fun one. I didn't have time to hedge on Straka due to Mother's Day events, but I did sneak in a much-needed nap between holes 15-17 only to wake up and see Lowry choke lol. It was a little annoying, but wasn't really mad or anything. That's golf sometimes. 

I bounced back and did my homework on PGA Championship and already made my bets last night. Will post those under one of those threads.

Sorry Rollz, Lowry, Morikawa & Fleetwood are loot burning mofos. I won't bet them, if I get beat by them congratulations...

I bet JT going into yesterday and he chokes 3 weeks after winning... That event was his, he just had to make an effort, missed 2 very makable putts for a pro and hit some horrific iron shots. Onto the PGA!