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    All Forums | Politics

    Are 90 million Americans not working or not looking for work?

    Stiln
    Peraski
    14daroad
    lordspoint
    rick3117
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    Stiln
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 12:07 PM ET #1

    MOSTLY FALSE - FACT CHECKED


    The total U.S. population age 16 and over is at least 243 million. Subtracting the nearly 156 million Americans in the labor force in June 2013 -- that is, those who were either working or looking for work -- leaves 87 million Americans, which is close to 90 million.

    However, the 90 million number is padded, since this number includes a lot of Americans who wouldn’t be expected to be working. Specifically:

    • People age 16 to 17, who likely are in high school: 9 million

    • People who are enrolled in either two- or four-year colleges: 21 million

    • People age 65 and older, who have reached retirement age: 40 million people

    That means 20 million people are of normal working age, not in college and not working. That’s less than one-quarter the amount repeatedly cited in the blogosphere.

    So the 90 million number is exaggerated. Even so, the idea that fewer people are joining the workforce is something that worries economists.

    All things being equal, economists like to see more people working because it helps economic growth (though not at the expense of dropping out of school, which can limit future employment opportunities and earnings potential).

    To gauge these trends, economists can calculate the labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the population that is either working or looking for work, and they can calculate the employment to population ratio, which is the percentage of the 16-and-over population that is currently employed. Both statistics generally track each other, but not in lockstep.









    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jul/30/blog-posting/are-90-million-americans-not-working-or-looking-wo/
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    MOSTLY FALSE - FACT CHECKED


    The total U.S. population age 16 and over is at least 243 million. Subtracting the nearly 156 million Americans in the labor force in June 2013 -- that is, those who were either working or looking for work -- leaves 87 million Americans, which is close to 90 million.

    However, the 90 million number is padded, since this number includes a lot of Americans who wouldn’t be expected to be working. Specifically:

    • People age 16 to 17, who likely are in high school: 9 million

    • People who are enrolled in either two- or four-year colleges: 21 million

    • People age 65 and older, who have reached retirement age: 40 million people

    That means 20 million people are of normal working age, not in college and not working. That’s less than one-quarter the amount repeatedly cited in the blogosphere.

    So the 90 million number is exaggerated. Even so, the idea that fewer people are joining the workforce is something that worries economists.

    All things being equal, economists like to see more people working because it helps economic growth (though not at the expense of dropping out of school, which can limit future employment opportunities and earnings potential).

    To gauge these trends, economists can calculate the labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the population that is either working or looking for work, and they can calculate the employment to population ratio, which is the percentage of the 16-and-over population that is currently employed. Both statistics generally track each other, but not in lockstep.









    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jul/30/blog-posting/are-90-million-americans-not-working-or-looking-wo/
     
    Peraski
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 12:14 PM ET #2

    ok... so you're saying the workforce is 20 million.  according to the us census there are 7.2 million teachers in the united states.   so you're telling me that 1/3 of our workforce are teachers?  

    https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/cb11-ff15.html

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    ok... so you're saying the workforce is 20 million.  according to the us census there are 7.2 million teachers in the united states.   so you're telling me that 1/3 of our workforce are teachers?  

    https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/cb11-ff15.html

     
    Peraski
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 12:42 PM ET #3

    my apologies... I mis read your numbers
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    my apologies... I mis read your numbers
     
    14daroad
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 4:50 PM ET #4

    loggers and pundits have said that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. That’s a real number, but it includes high schoolers, college students and retirement-age Americans, leaving perhaps 20 million a better approximation.


    Right because nobody, actually zero people, in college or over the age of 65 are looking for work.

    That's a "better approximation" when you're left wing like the people at Politifact.

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    loggers and pundits have said that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. That’s a real number, but it includes high schoolers, college students and retirement-age Americans, leaving perhaps 20 million a better approximation.


    Right because nobody, actually zero people, in college or over the age of 65 are looking for work.

    That's a "better approximation" when you're left wing like the people at Politifact.

     
    Stiln
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 4:54 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad:

    loggers and pundits have said that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. That’s a real number, but it includes high schoolers, college students and retirement-age Americans, leaving perhaps 20 million a better approximation.


    Right because nobody, actually zero people, in college or over the age of 65 are looking for work.

    That's a "better approximation" when you're left wing like the people at Politifact.



    You sound like you're going bananas....

    And yet you provide 0 evidence to refute Politifact's claims..

    0 Indeed it's funny!
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    Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad:

    loggers and pundits have said that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. That’s a real number, but it includes high schoolers, college students and retirement-age Americans, leaving perhaps 20 million a better approximation.


    Right because nobody, actually zero people, in college or over the age of 65 are looking for work.

    That's a "better approximation" when you're left wing like the people at Politifact.



    You sound like you're going bananas....

    And yet you provide 0 evidence to refute Politifact's claims..

    0 Indeed it's funny!
     
    14daroad
    14daroad
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 5:09 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by Stiln:



    And yet you provide 0 evidence to refute Politifact's claims..



    Poltifact's claim is self-refuting.

    If you want to believe there are zero people in America in college or over the age of 65 looking for work, knock yourself out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stiln:



    And yet you provide 0 evidence to refute Politifact's claims..



    Poltifact's claim is self-refuting.

    If you want to believe there are zero people in America in college or over the age of 65 looking for work, knock yourself out.
     
    Stiln
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 5:13 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad:


    Poltifact's claim is self-refuting.

    If you want to believe there are zero people in America in college or over the age of 65 looking for work, knock yourself out.


    You're really dumb
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    Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad:


    Poltifact's claim is self-refuting.

    If you want to believe there are zero people in America in college or over the age of 65 looking for work, knock yourself out.


    You're really dumb
     
    Stiln
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 5:14 PM ET #8

    Bloggers and pundits have said that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. That’s a real number, but it includes high schoolers, college students and retirement-age Americans, leaving perhaps 20 million a better approximation. We rate the claim Mostly False.


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    Bloggers and pundits have said that 90 million Americans either aren’t working or aren’t looking for work. That’s a real number, but it includes high schoolers, college students and retirement-age Americans, leaving perhaps 20 million a better approximation. We rate the claim Mostly False.


     
    lordspoint
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    Posted: Jul. 31, 2013 - 11:55 PM ET #9

    The unemployment rate stands at 7.6%.
    That doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work.
    Not a bright picture regardless of what is said in the blogosphere. Who believes shit reported by most bloggers anyways
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    The unemployment rate stands at 7.6%.
    That doesn't include those who have stopped looking for work.
    Not a bright picture regardless of what is said in the blogosphere. Who believes shit reported by most bloggers anyways
     
    rick3117
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2013 - 10:26 AM ET #10

    ........ So what you are saying is unemployment is not a problem?

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    ........ So what you are saying is unemployment is not a problem?

     
    rick3117
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    Posted: Aug. 1, 2013 - 10:30 AM ET #11

    If only 20 million are unemployed (some of which aren't looking for work), and since the demographics you provided are apparently all not looking for work.

    I think you have just solved the unemployment problem.

    Somebody call Barry and tell him he fixed it.

    It actually wouldn't surprise me if we see this emerge as Clinton-surplus-esque talking point. 

    If you cook the numbers enough. we could be below 1% unemployment.

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    If only 20 million are unemployed (some of which aren't looking for work), and since the demographics you provided are apparently all not looking for work.

    I think you have just solved the unemployment problem.

    Somebody call Barry and tell him he fixed it.

    It actually wouldn't surprise me if we see this emerge as Clinton-surplus-esque talking point. 

    If you cook the numbers enough. we could be below 1% unemployment.

     
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 8, 2013 - 3:22 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:

    ........ So what you are saying is unemployment is not a problem?


    when is unemployment not a problem?
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    Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:

    ........ So what you are saying is unemployment is not a problem?


    when is unemployment not a problem?
     
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 4:12 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Peraski:

    my apologies... I mis read your numbers

    I respect your character in being able to apologize...

    often when someone makes a mistake they spazz out and go psycho flooding threads with cut/pasted links, and rolling head emoticons...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peraski:

    my apologies... I mis read your numbers

    I respect your character in being able to apologize...

    often when someone makes a mistake they spazz out and go psycho flooding threads with cut/pasted links, and rolling head emoticons...
     
    thirdperson
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 9:28 AM ET #14

    Stiln may be suggesting that unemployment rate might not be as bad as some believe.  According to U.S. labor department, current 7.4% unemployment rate is the lowest in 4-5 years.  This is close to 5-6% range that economists consider acceptable for full employment and inflation control of economy.
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    Stiln may be suggesting that unemployment rate might not be as bad as some believe.  According to U.S. labor department, current 7.4% unemployment rate is the lowest in 4-5 years.  This is close to 5-6% range that economists consider acceptable for full employment and inflation control of economy.
     
    esplanade
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 12:02 PM ET #15


    Reply
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    Villemure30
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 12:53 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

    Stiln may be suggesting that unemployment rate might not be as bad as some believe.  According to U.S. labor department, current 7.4% unemployment rate is the lowest in 4-5 years.  This is close to 5-6% range that economists consider acceptable for full employment and inflation control of economy.

    Huh?

    7.4 is close to the 5-6% range?

    7.4 is an added 1.4 to 2.4% , 
    Or close to an extra 25%

    that's pretty significant

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    Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:

    Stiln may be suggesting that unemployment rate might not be as bad as some believe.  According to U.S. labor department, current 7.4% unemployment rate is the lowest in 4-5 years.  This is close to 5-6% range that economists consider acceptable for full employment and inflation control of economy.

    Huh?

    7.4 is close to the 5-6% range?

    7.4 is an added 1.4 to 2.4% , 
    Or close to an extra 25%

    that's pretty significant

     
    rick3117
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 2:55 PM ET #17

    The new part time work force will boost these numbers as well.
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    The new part time work force will boost these numbers as well.
     
    Villemure30
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 4:22 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by Villemure30:


    Huh?

    7.4 is close to the 5-6% range?

    7.4 is an added 1.4 to 2.4% , 
    Or close to an extra 25%

    that's pretty significant

    and actually 2.4 percent higher than 5 so that is 48%
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    Quote Originally Posted by Villemure30:


    Huh?

    7.4 is close to the 5-6% range?

    7.4 is an added 1.4 to 2.4% , 
    Or close to an extra 25%

    that's pretty significant

    and actually 2.4 percent higher than 5 so that is 48%
     
    dl36
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 8:51 PM ET #19

    yeah I agree it was a stretch... but far better then double digits...

    do you disagree with what he said about the numbers being the lowest in 4-5 years?
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    yeah I agree it was a stretch... but far better then double digits...

    do you disagree with what he said about the numbers being the lowest in 4-5 years?
     
    lordspoint
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 11:54 PM ET #20

    It may be the lowest in 4-5 yrs mainly due to the large # that have dropped out of the workforce/stopped looking for work
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    It may be the lowest in 4-5 yrs mainly due to the large # that have dropped out of the workforce/stopped looking for work
     
    lordspoint
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    Posted: Aug. 10, 2013 - 11:57 PM ET #21

    Unemployment declined from 7.6 percent in June because more Americans found jobs, and others stopped looking and were no longer counted as unemployed. Still, Friday's report from the Labor Department pointed to a less-than-robust job market. It suggested that the economy's subpar growth and modest consumer spending are making many businesses cautious about hiring. The government said employers added a combined 26,000 fewer jobs in May and June than it previously estimated. Americans worked fewer hours in July, and their average pay dipped. And many of the jobs employers added last month were for lower-paying work at stores, bars and restaurants
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    Unemployment declined from 7.6 percent in June because more Americans found jobs, and others stopped looking and were no longer counted as unemployed. Still, Friday's report from the Labor Department pointed to a less-than-robust job market. It suggested that the economy's subpar growth and modest consumer spending are making many businesses cautious about hiring. The government said employers added a combined 26,000 fewer jobs in May and June than it previously estimated. Americans worked fewer hours in July, and their average pay dipped. And many of the jobs employers added last month were for lower-paying work at stores, bars and restaurants
     
    thirdperson
    thirdperson
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    Posted: Aug. 11, 2013 - 7:28 AM ET #22

    On the positive side, the difference between 5% and 7.4% is 2.4%.  Looking at the big picture, 92.6% employment rate only has to rise by 2.5% to reach ideal 95%.   Higher than 95% would be inflationary.
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    On the positive side, the difference between 5% and 7.4% is 2.4%.  Looking at the big picture, 92.6% employment rate only has to rise by 2.5% to reach ideal 95%.   Higher than 95% would be inflationary.
     
     
    Villemure30
    Villemure30
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    Posted: Aug. 11, 2013 - 9:04 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

    yeah I agree it was a stretch... but far better then double digits...

    do you disagree with what he said about the numbers being the lowest in 4-5 years?

    If the numbers were legit after Bush & now, yes

    The one thing I'm unclear of though is this including govt jobs or just private sector.

    Also still confused when unemployment "drops" when at some point those that no longer collect benefits still are unemployed but are no longer counted as unemployed
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    Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

    yeah I agree it was a stretch... but far better then double digits...

    do you disagree with what he said about the numbers being the lowest in 4-5 years?

    If the numbers were legit after Bush & now, yes

    The one thing I'm unclear of though is this including govt jobs or just private sector.

    Also still confused when unemployment "drops" when at some point those that no longer collect benefits still are unemployed but are no longer counted as unemployed
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