College Totals For This Weekend

S Miss-UAB                             Under 59.5

Arkansas State-Iowa                 Under 45

UCLA-Stanford                          Under 45.5

Kansas State-Iowa State            Under 48

Air Force-Navy                           Under 47.5

Mississippi-Vanderbilt                 Under 44

Georgia Tech-Mississippi State   Under 46.5

Auburn-Tennessee                     Under 51

Two pro sides

Detroit +10

Denver +3

GL - I'm looking at the CAL / USC under as well.

Auburn +2.5

Northwestern +8

Idaho +3.5

 

Auburn by 10-14

Northwestern by 3-4

Idaho by 3-7

8 totals, 3 sides

Did not play these but these looked interesting

Alabama by 24-27

Anyone curious about the Irish?

 

Notre Dame  by 14-17  (Total Points 46)

Have this game 21- 18 Minnesota

Too close to call on the side and personally won't bet the under here

Alabama                Under    45.5

Wisconsin              Under    49.5

Connecticut            Under    45

Marshall                 Under    47

Western Michigan   Over      60

Texas Christian      Under    43.5

Utah State             Under    52.5

Here is how I have these games

Georgia Tech +3

Idaho +3.5

New Mexico State +12

Georgia Tech by 10-14

Idaho by 7-13

New Mexico State by Pick to 10

7 totals, 3 sides

Will be back with possibly two more totals

Anyone curious about Nebraska and Missouri?

I have Nebraska from 7-10 (Total 46 points)

Someone posted they have Nebraska-1...and yes I occasionally use Bookmaker...however couldn't get that opening number..

At -1 it looks solid, even at -3 but at -3.5 I am currently seeing I will happily pass.. 

Best places to get a serious bet in Vegas....

Southpoint Hotel...hands down any sport all year round unlike the rest of the corporate bookies out there, Burt will always take care of you

Originally I had the Cornhuskers from 7- 10 and the total at 46

Looks like this one will be a doozy and add the inclement weather to pick up at kickoff..will be taking the under here...passing on the side

Also played and early total on the Florida LSU matchup..

Nebraska Under 50.5

Florida     Under 45

Gonna catch this one early...

 

Michigan State -3.5

 

Michigan State by 10-14

Just recently someone asked for a serious discussion on this game and mentioned many cappers in the know felt this game to be Nevada -6.5 points and thats where it opened.

I have this game Nevada by 13 and the total is dead cold at 54. A few points variance on the total but I'm not holding my breath there. Notice that the line has moved to 10.5 and 57, 56.5 on the total.

I would be very surprised if any sharp went under that key number of 56 as the total like I said is dead cold at 54.

Anyway I hope this explains the line movement to some asking, I am passing this game, mainly because this week I could not bet early as usual, but enough action for me tomorrow and Sunday.

Adding another one in the NFL for Sunday..

NYG Under 38

9 totals, 3 sides pending

ok...i do have action on tonights game, dinner at the Bellagio later if the game goes under 56.5, no action really though

Don't worry the lines will get sharper then you and I will be all glory betting the overs, just give them a few weeks

Really don't want to give it away but you seemed really interested in totals action and your reasons were that it was easier to cap the totals then the sides. Very true, but a lot of times you will see great opportunities on the sides as teams are overvalued or undervalued. Whereas the totals line is very sharp, but like you said when properly handicapped, much more consistent. It's a catch 22, but I'll take my chances also on something more consistent, rather than a side that is off by two touchdowns but variance comes into play much more often.

A little about this game, as I said my number is 13 at home and the total at 54 with an 8 point variance on the total. Notice the lines moving in that direction and earlier I mentioned about that key number of 56. Here is where a lot of people don't understand the movement of the lines.

Everyone knows that the book needs balanced action. What that depends on is a strong opening number, one that will not move. Unfortunately Roxy and his cohorts are not what the old oddsmaker at Churchill was in the 70's. Roxy could not hold a candle to Bob Martin.That was bookmaking !!

Even in the NFL, Roxy is pushed around as you see his lines move like crazy. Prime examples this week is Buffalo being pushed off a 7 to a 6, San Francisco off a 3 to a 2.5, New England from 4 to a 3, Jacksonville 3 to a 1, and Indy from 1 to a 3.5. Thats the biggest market in the US and he is getting muscled by sharps daily.

You wouldn't find that with Bob Martins line. Research it. You won't find that even in his college basketball lines. Which brings up this game tonight. Remember the key number is 56 here with the number handicap at 54 with a 8 point variance.

When I say this "variance" that is what i mean by luck scores. Or depending on chance here. If you look at the numbers now, you see all kind of buy back action around this 56. A KEY number.

What enables them to risk the juice is a clean handicap with the variance. Even sharps know that this variance come into play. Thats why if a sharp bought the under at 58, with that "variance", and books so eager to balance theie money moved to a 56, which you have seen and will see until gametime, this sharp will buy back his bet, or even just half of it to take that chance at a tie at 56 and and under at 58.

I have just seen bookmaker drop to a clean 56 with 2 hours to go.

Do i see a 55.5?

In this game, though I have just dinner bet on it, there are a few situations that point to the under. Sharps know this angle and are playing it. I am aware of it but will not bet the angle unless the numerical handicap is 4-7 points off the total. Just because I am very selective. These sharp angle players are saying these angles are sharper than the handicap and it won't come close to this 54.

I prefer to only bet with certain angles, tried and tested, and use a numerical handicap also.(Just because I'm a numbers guy) 

But actually this angles is very solid numbers wise and as a fun bet I am one the under...just for dinner though fyi if that opening number was 61 I would have automatically played it..However this week on Sunday I was a full schedule, so anyway I am not in a rush ..so many games to play and I just had a few moments to write about this game...and I have a full card this weekend also..

The NBA is in a few weeks, and the first 4 weeks of those totals is pure money..I will be doing NCAA till then ...

I read somewhere that an old capper who made the Illini a pick game at home...makes me wonder...the best angle you can use with a numerical handicap is always bet the home team...not every home team..but those to handicap the number

But in this case I have MSU by 14...the one and only road team I am playing this week..we shall see how strong that number is..

ps bluesplayer I have added you as a friend..you can send me a message or add me if you want to chat totals...I'm an open book

Good info, thanks for taking the time.

Did manage to catch the last quarter there and was thinking about my post...the handicap at 54 and the potential middle had Nevada punched it in late..if so there would have been 58 points..

For the books a nightmare..risking a side by even putting a 56 out there just to balance the action...very funny at times..

Two missed field goals at the end could have made it 54 which is what I called or 57 if they both hit...a middle..pay under 58.5, 57.5, over 56, over 56.5..damn line was pushed to 59 and then back down to 56...actually yesterday it was a 55.5 at 7pm EST yesterday hours prior..that is what a sharp number can do to the bookmaker if he is just trying to "balance" his book..like I said..when Bob Martin set a line, he knew exactly the odds and there was no cat and mouse game that a sharpie could beat him at 7 days a week..then you took a position and he took a position...thing was you always paid the juice..

Now the advantage players can take two sides of the game or total, and put the book at risk..not exactly what they designed the game to be..

Now it's so funny, because even at the big places in Vegas, you actually have an accountant that sits behind a computer, and when he gets high a certain amount, the line automatically moves..no thinking behind it..no skill involved in taking a bet..just move the line and cross a few numbers, a who cares attitude I guess

Anyway just have a few moments before I go to bed..when I am in Vegas as most people do  I have my (breakfast)cereal at 10pm and dinner at about 7am...then hit the sack till noon...but want to explain a few selections and my thoughts on the game...no one really cares but oh well

Here are the totals..

Alabama and Miss...total a clean handicap at 38 points (7 point variance but like I said will not be holding my breath here) 45.5 was the number and system play here also make this a position I took early...watch the number drop till game time..

Wisconsin and OSU...clean handicap at 40..variance at 15 but also a system play here to back up the numerical handicap..15 points variance is huge...but I don't think that will come into play...number is 49.5..another note if you are interested in the side...OSU is 7-8 and I'm wondering why they are 16..passing there though..

Connecticut and Pittsburgh...handicap is at 41..there  variance is 7 points...I don't expect that to be an issue here..number has actually moved to 47 and I wish I would have waited....but looks like someone is wrong lol...

Marshall and Tulane...the handicap is at 36 with a 9 point variance...even with this variance you are still going under the 47 posted..

Western Michigan and Tulane...here is where numbers stop and I go against the grain...handicap is at 45 with 12 point variance..even with the variance you are looking at 57..well below the 60 I bet into...but here i am assuming Western Michigan puts up 28-31 by themselves...that will push the number above what was posted..

I will explain later why people lose by a half a point..but I hope not in this case..because i am on the over also

TCU and Air Force...handicap is at 33 points with a 11 point variance..fyi TCU handicaps at 2-3 if you are interested...I am not...total only here and not expecting a track meet in that cold ..

Florida and LSU....handicap at 38 points...9 point variance to the over...I am not holding my breath there with the injury and this doozy in Baton Rouge LA..

Utah State and New Mexico State..handicap is at 45 with a 9 point variance...system play on Utah State on the road and laying the lumber...

Sides..

Michigan State...looks to roll on the road by 14 points..watch the number move to 4.5 and higher as we approach..betting early is great, though in this case I don't think that will matter..

Georgia Tech +3...handicap from 14-16 points on the road grabbing three..4 hours till game time and watch the number drop back down with a buy back to the right side..

Idaho +3.5...handicap at 12 on the road catching the 3.5....

New Mexico State +12...handicaps from pick to 10 catching 12 points..

One more thing about line movements....in  the case of Georgia Tech and Florida State..sharpies have pushed this number to 55.5 and waiting for followers to take it to that key number again...56....9 hours before game time for followers to jump on the bandwagon..should that number be pushed to 56...there will be buy back action..all of it and then some...I also will be on that game to go under 56 as it handicaps at a clean 42 with a 12 point variance..56 is my number that I will be playing...system play on Florida State at home to go under this number..

Oregon and UCLA...I am looking for 47..might find that in Jerusalem nevertheless game handicaps at 43 with a 10 point variance...I am not that concerned with the variance...just getting a 47...most likely not but will keep my eyes open today..

Ball State and Temple...handicap at 43 with a 12 point variance...number is 47.5 and moving upward..but a few angles point to the under here...the numerical handicap and angle play looks decent here for the under regardless of the 12 point variance..

Ohio and Akron...total handicaps at 46 with a 10 point variance..usually with that kind of variance I am looking for all the pieces in the puzzle to come together..it looks like an under..but being close to the number with that kind of variance and not having the proper situation..I would not be suprised to see it close to the number or going over here..crapshoot here and I will pass..has a few angles to the under as well as the numerical handicap..but not all and very close to the number here..I thought about playing this but only for a few seconds...we shall see..

I just wanted so say a few things about line movement and how you can take advantage of this..especially when it crosse key numbers..

Case and point...W Michigan and Toledo has gone to 63.5...most places...This is a key example of why people lose...though I hope not today...my number was 60 earlier in the week.

Having or learning to make a line...you can discern which way the line will move...63 is a key number why would you bet over  63.5 when you could have gotten 60 earlier in the week? Unless you have the game in the 70s or 80s...which i think will happen ...

New Mexico State...Opened at 11 and false moved to 12.5 and then 13...hoping people would follow..not sure how many did...having a handicap on the game alows you to take the best number...my case 12..not the best but I took what I could and not follow a fake move with Utah State..

Look also at Wisconsin and OSU..the number was steamed to 49.5,..if you had a strong handicap you would have known this to be a fake move..moving it past 47, 48, 49, and then back down to 47 which it is now at...the game handicaps at 40 with a 15 point variance hence the insurance made artificially by steaming the total higher..I am not concerned though about the variance though..

Basically having a strong number and restricting yourself with a lot of leeway when betting a spread is the best way to go...

sometimes I see some cappers say they have the favorite by 4 points so they say okay..I'll play the side..minus 3 points...just giving yourself too much leeway for variance..or "luck" as they say..

as in the case of last night..number was at 54...61 was my trigger...though the under won, why take that chance..had Nevada gone in with a few minutes left it would have gone over 56...but aha...because of the 7 point difference minimum that I set...61 in this case..it still would have gone under had the punched it in...just giving yourself room is the best way to go..

Like today in the Oregon game...will i find probably not..if I do I will be playing...if it goes under which it most likely will, will I get irritated...not really..because i know i am saving a lot of coin and headache with getting dumped on by key numbers and the bounce of the ball..

In the case of Georgia Tech and FSU it is only a matter of time before I see a 56...thats when I play...win lose or draw it's my number or no way..

Ok a few minutes before the Illini gets their doors kicked in..

Enjoy the games ...

Tressel just needs to be examined if he cant guard against a  fake field goal within the ten yard line

21 points off variance...cmon man...

ahhh thats why they play...

Second  Week

Totals

Nebraska    Under 50.5

Alabama     Under 45.5

Wisconsin   Under 49.5

Marshall      Under 47 

Western Michigan Over 60

TCU Under 43.5

Florida Under 45

Utah State Under 52.5

Connecticut Under 45 Push

Georgia Tech Under 56( They scored 56 in the first quarter I think)

Sides

Michigan State -3.5

New Mexico State +12

Idaho +3.5

Totals this week  8-1

Sides 3-0

Georgia Tech +3 But how i like to say...I am not holding my breath lol

Last two weeks the totals have gone 14-2-2

Sides 6-0 ....1 pending 

NFL a split...

But more importantly...if you read the articles...you will see a very clean tight handicap...thats way more important..

the projected total and variance...if you can cap totals you can prolly cap sides too...it just fits together like glue..

See the projection on TCU and the total there..Ball State..Alabama and Florida...etc...even Oregon..it will make a lot of sense

But you know you're good when you bet against your own handicap like in the Western Michigan game...and play a road team angle..I thought from 28-35...boy this angle goes way up in my book as they put up almost 60 themselves..

And like an old pro used to tell me... if they only make picks..and if they can't tell you the line, the handicap and by how much, or where to bet it at and when to back off...then they're all in the same boat.

Anway ...more sushi at the Bellagio tonight...Yay

great results man

THANKS BUDDY .....YOU ARE THE MAN  !

Thanks so much for all the picks.

 

YOU ARE A SUPPERMAN