Dallas @ Seattle -1.5 dallas was a play because te line was off. sure, by only a half a point but a half a point off of 3 is the biggest half a point there is. and while it was ugly for most of the game, they got it done fairly easily. that being said, dallas has serious issues. yes, their defense looked good but the giants are a trainwreck on offense right now. seattle is too but seattle has a mobiel QB in wilson while eli is a statue. that will make it a little harder on the dallas defense on the road here. but that dallas offense is a mess. they had a big play early and that was pretty much it for a long time. how many times did the dallas defense, or just the ineptitude of the NYG offense, put dallas in a great position and the offense did nothing. if dallas had an offense, that would have been a 20 point win. instead, NYG get a onside kick and we have to pray they decide to kick the field goal first so we don't get a tie. and i don't see this offense getting much better. the passing game is a mess. the OL is good but not like it was. the running game hasn't gotten going yet. the coaching is questionable. so, unless something changes, this dallas team is not one to bet as a big favorite.
as for seattle. they suck. we said they'd suck. they have a good QB and little else. i don't know if everyone realizes how bad seattle is yet. is ther still a seattle home game premium? let's see. i'd set this at dallas -2. figures they have seattle favored. but 1's and 2's don't matter much. no opinion yet.
NE @ Detroit +6.5 already mentioned detroit. expect them to be more like the team that played SF close than the team that got crushed by the jets. we predicted they will be slightly better than usual and i think that's what they'll be since they do have a running game if they use it. if they didn't get a questionable defensive holding call late in that game, they probably beat SF. and they did it without their best defensive player.
NE's defense is soft. maybe softer than usual. detroit should get their points here. i saw an interesting stat today. brady is the worst starting Qb in the league so far in off target throws to receivers. now, that's not all on him. one, good QB's like brady will intentionally throw off target if the WR isn't open to avoid an int. plus, his receivers are pretty bad. and they just played jacksonville which has a top defense and one of the few who can handle gronkowski. and probably some of it is brady getting old. detroit has a decent secondary but nothing like what jax has. that being said, with NE's weak defense, bad receiving core and no real running game to speak of, i wouldn't be betting them as big road favorites against a team that can score. i'll guess 6.5. just right. i'd lean to detroit. NE reminds me of SF. good offense against questionable defenses but serious issues on defense and not much of a running game.
Pitt @ TB +1.5 ok, i have no idea what TB is doing. no, fitzpatrick isn't the second coming of kurt warner. he'll be coming back down to earth very soon. but will it be this week. pitt's defense is nothing to be scared of and pitt as a team isn't too scary on the road. no reason TB shouldn't get their points. but, pitt is still clearly the better team. TB can't keep beating teams better than them every week with fitzpatrick.
one interesting note. TB is second in the nfl in rushing defense. is that legitimate? they played NO without their top RB and philly where their top RB got hurt. last season, TB was 24th in the league in defensive yards/attempt. pittsburgh is a pretty good rushing team when they want to be. conner had a big game in week one. pitt didn't even bother last week. in any case, i don't think this TB team holds up, on offense or defense. i already know the line, or i did. it opened at 2.5. now it's 1.5. interestingly, if you take off the jerseys, what would the line be. meaning, if you see Road Team X tied the browns and lost to KC giving up a million yards. and Home Team Y beat NO on the road and philly at home, pretty convincingly in both cases, and didn't know anything more, what would the line be? Home team -7?
of course, you can't do that but that should make anyone interested in pitt pause.