Saturday
-4.5 Orlando at Birmingham, 34 O/U
+5.5 Salt Lake at San Diego, 36 O/U
Sunday
+1.5 Memphis at Atlanta, 38.5 O/U
+2.5 San Antonio at Arizona, 40 O/U
I tried to sneak in $55 to win $50 bets on -3.5 Orlando and +6 Salt Lake, got in a total of $220 to win $200 on both those games and then they moved the Orlando line a full point and the Salt Lake game a half point. Didn't change the juice to -115 or -120, they straight moved the points!
Betonline really doesn't want my action it seems. Should have spaced my bets out a bit more, but I figure with other people betting the lines maybe they would have moved anyway.
I think the over/unders have moved low enough to not really be great plays anymore. There are supposed to be thunderstorms in Birmingham and Atlanta, and fair weather in San Diego and Arizona.
If I had to lean one way or the other I'd say you could still make a case for betting the under in all 4 games.
Reasoning:
ORL/Birm under - Bad weather, Birm offense is really bad, Birm defense is good but overrated, both teams running the ball a lot of late.
SL/SD under - SD starting QB Philip Nelson is out, possibly for season. SD backup QBs a big drop off. Both teams strong running games. Both teams strong defenses.
Memp/ATL under - Bad weather, improved QB play on both teams but still way too many stupid penalties by both offenses. ATL defense held Hotshots to 11 points on the road. The O/U is slightly higher on this game 38.5.
SA/AZ over - In week 4 AZ lost to ATL 14-11 and SA beat Birm 12-11, so 25 total points in 1 game and 23 in the other? With a 40 O/U I'm thinking the safer bet is the under.
Conclusions:
I like Orlando -4.5, bad weather or no bad weather. Birmingham's mediocrity has been exposed against San Antonio and the point spread does not reflect this. Orlando can/will point up red zone TDs against Birmingham's stingy defense. Birmingham's offense is enemic, through 4 weeks QB Luis Perez still had 0 TD passes. Don't expect 2 yard Richardson to make the difference vs the best team in the AAF.
I like Salt Lake +5.5, they're a much stronger team with Josh Woodrum at QB and all of their WRs healthy. SD QB situation took a huge hit and the point spread should be closer to a pick em.
If I had to pick Memp/ATL I'd lean slightly towards Memphis +1.5. Both teams have improved at QB with Mettenberger and Murray, but I think Memphis is the better team overall. They both have 1 win and 3 losses now, but ATL's losses have all been by double digits, and Memphis has one double digit loss and one 2 point loss and one 4 point loss. I'd either bet Memphis or avoid.
In the SA/AZ game I'll lean AZ. Still a lot of talent on the team, and although I don't think they're a whole lot better than San Antonio, they are at home and they should have no lack of motivation after losing to the worst team in the AAF. Bet AZ or avoid.
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