First game of the round between the Pigs and the Dragons. As I posted in my last thread the Dragons seem to be one team I am having dificulties getting a read on. They clearly have the firepower on offense with Tez and especially Jingles stepping up this season but what concerns me backing them is that they are liable to go for spells of scorign droughts during games. The Pigs are proving they are no one hit wonder this season led by the best player in the NBL right now IMO Hinson.
Will need to look into this one a bit more, if I do play it it's going to be small.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall YTD (29-19-0) +32.30 units
First game of the round between the Pigs and the Dragons. As I posted in my last thread the Dragons seem to be one team I am having dificulties getting a read on. They clearly have the firepower on offense with Tez and especially Jingles stepping up this season but what concerns me backing them is that they are liable to go for spells of scorign droughts during games. The Pigs are proving they are no one hit wonder this season led by the best player in the NBL right now IMO Hinson.
Will need to look into this one a bit more, if I do play it it's going to be small.
Been thinking about this one all day and even though I hate laying those DD spreads even for such a dominant team as the Kings at home I'm going to pull the trigger considering this is a revenge spot for them and are well rested against a Pigs team who played a couple of days ago. I won't be suprised if the Pigs keep it close at the start but for the Kings to run away with it in the end.
Kings -12 over Razorbacks (3)
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Been thinking about this one all day and even though I hate laying those DD spreads even for such a dominant team as the Kings at home I'm going to pull the trigger considering this is a revenge spot for them and are well rested against a Pigs team who played a couple of days ago. I won't be suprised if the Pigs keep it close at the start but for the Kings to run away with it in the end.
Rod I tail you on both these bets today. Good for me as I can pass work by following bets
Also you are very class poster. Even when you lose in NBA or even NBL you never make excuse or complain about bad decisions in matches. Many posters here do opposite. You are still easily best NBA bettor I have seen on internet I also had Bulls against Suns and we were very bad luck. Only 6 points behind with 50 seconds left and they also had ball then stupid Hinrich lose ball and fouls.
Bonne chance. Sorry for long post just want to say thank you
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Rod I tail you on both these bets today. Good for me as I can pass work by following bets
Also you are very class poster. Even when you lose in NBA or even NBL you never make excuse or complain about bad decisions in matches. Many posters here do opposite. You are still easily best NBA bettor I have seen on internet I also had Bulls against Suns and we were very bad luck. Only 6 points behind with 50 seconds left and they also had ball then stupid Hinrich lose ball and fouls.
Bonne chance. Sorry for long post just want to say thank you
This is now the Dragons 3rd game in 4 days and 2nd on the road which is a brutal schedule. My main concern whenever backing the Sixers is the fact they don't play any defense however in this case it cancels itself given the fact the Dragons are in the same boat and expect some tired legs in the second half which should translate into some easier looks for the Sixers backcourt.
Breakers +9.5 over Taipans
u192.5 Taipans v Breakers (3)
Second time in a row I am backing the Breakers in Australia
However I can not justify this line at all for the home team. They have one of the if not the most anaemic offenses in the league, their roster whilst talented is dysfunctional because of the number of changes every week with injuries. Tucker has been ruled out since last week, Catt will not be suiting up either meaning more pressure on Black and Jawai to carry this team's scoring. The scoreline last week against a jaded Hawks team who themselves were on a B2b flattered them as it was only in the last few minutes the Taipans were able to pull away. Both played a dour game in the opening week of the season and nothing really has suggested since that it will be different tonight scoring wise. Breakers offense at home is inflated compared to its road numbers. I had this line at 6.5/7 there will take the additional 2 points.
Comments on the other 2 games bit later
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Saturday night...
Sixers -2 over Dragons
This is now the Dragons 3rd game in 4 days and 2nd on the road which is a brutal schedule. My main concern whenever backing the Sixers is the fact they don't play any defense however in this case it cancels itself given the fact the Dragons are in the same boat and expect some tired legs in the second half which should translate into some easier looks for the Sixers backcourt.
Breakers +9.5 over Taipans
u192.5 Taipans v Breakers (3)
Second time in a row I am backing the Breakers in Australia
However I can not justify this line at all for the home team. They have one of the if not the most anaemic offenses in the league, their roster whilst talented is dysfunctional because of the number of changes every week with injuries. Tucker has been ruled out since last week, Catt will not be suiting up either meaning more pressure on Black and Jawai to carry this team's scoring. The scoreline last week against a jaded Hawks team who themselves were on a B2b flattered them as it was only in the last few minutes the Taipans were able to pull away. Both played a dour game in the opening week of the season and nothing really has suggested since that it will be different tonight scoring wise. Breakers offense at home is inflated compared to its road numbers. I had this line at 6.5/7 there will take the additional 2 points.
Hey Rod, agree with the sixers, but I took them straight. On the other side with the Cairns / Breakers total though. Yes I agree that the Taipans offense is dysfunctional, but I also think it is inconsistent. Jawai has shown that on his day he can put up good numbers, and Black is experienced enough to pick up some of the slack that Cat would provide. Tucker has been a non-event so far, so I don't thonk he makes much difference to this game.
Breakers are hardly the leagues most defensively minded side, so I think 191.5 is not without reach. .
Good luck mate, one of us will be laughing at least
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Hey Rod, agree with the sixers, but I took them straight. On the other side with the Cairns / Breakers total though. Yes I agree that the Taipans offense is dysfunctional, but I also think it is inconsistent. Jawai has shown that on his day he can put up good numbers, and Black is experienced enough to pick up some of the slack that Cat would provide. Tucker has been a non-event so far, so I don't thonk he makes much difference to this game.
Breakers are hardly the leagues most defensively minded side, so I think 191.5 is not without reach. .
Good luck mate, one of us will be laughing at least
Perhaps this total has some buffer added to it since it is a home game for the Crocs however it still doesn't IMO factor the Crocs new style of play that they seemingly have acquired during the 4 road games they have played starting a fortnight ago against the Kings. There is a definite shift from the small trigger happy shooting play to a more physical and structured offense. The totals on all 4 road games. The round 7 games against the Kings and Tigers totalled 185 and 158 points respectively. However the more relevant numbers are in round 8 where the Crocs beat both the Hawks and Dragons, two of the more weaker defensive teams in the league with total points of 188 and 200. Pretty simplistic look at it but gives me enough confidence to have a ping at the under even at home of anything above 200 against a Slingers team that struggles to register the points on the road.
Wildcats -13 over Hawks (3)
u200.5 Cats v Hawks (3)
I was deliberating about this one for a while because of the fact that the Cats really are not in a position to be laying that many points to anyone in the league right now. However situationally this has the hallmarks of a blowout:
-The Fish talking up the fact that there is a revenge angle during the week as the Cats were dealt a hiding by the Hawks at the gong earlier in the season.
- Hawks played in Auckland on Thursday and had to make the journey across to Perth the next day, apart from the travel up to Singapore that is the longest haul to make in this league
- One of the keys to the Hawks' victory a month ago was Matt Campbell and the offense he brings to the table for the Hawks. He is not there tonight, and coupled with the fact that injuries are starting to take a toll in the roster we are effectively in the same scenario as last weekend when the Hawks played the Taipans. Again I wouldn't be suprised if this was a case of the Cats pulling away in the second half to get the cover.
Whilst the Cats lost against the Bullets last week, they did hold a 17 point lead late into the 3rd quarter before Ere and Bruton started bombing away from the outside. But that is the nature of the Bullets, they can rack up the points in a hurry. Faced with a similar situation tonight I don't see the Hawks being able to replicate that given they simply dont have the offense to do so.
The total's play is really just tacked onto the side bet with any kind of potential blowout.
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Moving on to the last two games
u202.5 Crocs v Slingers (3)
Perhaps this total has some buffer added to it since it is a home game for the Crocs however it still doesn't IMO factor the Crocs new style of play that they seemingly have acquired during the 4 road games they have played starting a fortnight ago against the Kings. There is a definite shift from the small trigger happy shooting play to a more physical and structured offense. The totals on all 4 road games. The round 7 games against the Kings and Tigers totalled 185 and 158 points respectively. However the more relevant numbers are in round 8 where the Crocs beat both the Hawks and Dragons, two of the more weaker defensive teams in the league with total points of 188 and 200. Pretty simplistic look at it but gives me enough confidence to have a ping at the under even at home of anything above 200 against a Slingers team that struggles to register the points on the road.
Wildcats -13 over Hawks (3)
u200.5 Cats v Hawks (3)
I was deliberating about this one for a while because of the fact that the Cats really are not in a position to be laying that many points to anyone in the league right now. However situationally this has the hallmarks of a blowout:
-The Fish talking up the fact that there is a revenge angle during the week as the Cats were dealt a hiding by the Hawks at the gong earlier in the season.
- Hawks played in Auckland on Thursday and had to make the journey across to Perth the next day, apart from the travel up to Singapore that is the longest haul to make in this league
- One of the keys to the Hawks' victory a month ago was Matt Campbell and the offense he brings to the table for the Hawks. He is not there tonight, and coupled with the fact that injuries are starting to take a toll in the roster we are effectively in the same scenario as last weekend when the Hawks played the Taipans. Again I wouldn't be suprised if this was a case of the Cats pulling away in the second half to get the cover.
Whilst the Cats lost against the Bullets last week, they did hold a 17 point lead late into the 3rd quarter before Ere and Bruton started bombing away from the outside. But that is the nature of the Bullets, they can rack up the points in a hurry. Faced with a similar situation tonight I don't see the Hawks being able to replicate that given they simply dont have the offense to do so.
The total's play is really just tacked onto the side bet with any kind of potential blowout.
I also had Bulls against Suns and we were very bad luck. Only 6 points behind with 50 seconds left and they also had ball then stupid Hinrich lose ball and fouls.
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