Adelaide v. WCE @ Oval -24.5 / 181.5 Each team's highest-ranked player in Nic Nat and Sloane being out make this a little more unpredictable. And whilst the Eagles have looked awesome these past few rounds, it's hard to believe that Nic Nat wasn't critical in that success. With him out, and away, value is on the Crows in my mind. Love the 1Q line more than the game, but playing both equally. Plays: Crows 1Q -5.5 / -24.5
Other potential leans at the moment:
Blues line Tigers line (would be so "Richmondy", haha!) Suns line Roos line if full line up Pies line
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Adelaide v. WCE @ Oval -24.5 / 181.5 Each team's highest-ranked player in Nic Nat and Sloane being out make this a little more unpredictable. And whilst the Eagles have looked awesome these past few rounds, it's hard to believe that Nic Nat wasn't critical in that success. With him out, and away, value is on the Crows in my mind. Love the 1Q line more than the game, but playing both equally. Plays: Crows 1Q -5.5 / -24.5
Other potential leans at the moment:
Blues line Tigers line (would be so "Richmondy", haha!) Suns line Roos line if full line up Pies line
Oh boy. Crows, at home, clearly on a let down after an all-out last round. Reinforces Suns play.
Geelong v. Melbourne @ Simonds -32.5 / 178.5 Cats should win this and cover, early and in the end. I liked how the Cats came out v Lions last week early (concerned about how they let off immediately after, of course, but it's a Scott-coached team). Dees are going to come out swinging, smarting from the shit level of footy they played last round. But, Dees beating Cats last year gives the Cats focus early. I think the Dees keep this interesting, but I think Cats win early and pul away in the end, at Simonds. Plays: Cats 1Q -7.5 / -32.5
Essendon v. Carlton @ MCG +19.5 / 171.5 Super tough game to cap. Initially thought I'd be Blues laying the points. At the 'G, better coach, more talent. At the same time, last match of the season for both teams, Bombers lost their last one (though covered), and this is over 3 goals. I can totally see Bombers playing a F-U game and going balls to the wall, and Blues being rightfully satisfied with a 1-2 goal win. No value here, but I'm playing the F-U angle. :) Play: Bombers +19.5
Syndey v. Richmond @ SCG -55.5 / 166.5 Since the Carlton "mail-it-in" performance at the SCG, the Swans have lifted. Big time. And now Tippett is back, and playing really well. Make no mistake - Swans win it all this year, and yours truly will be there to witness it. Against the Cats is my guess, but against the Hawks would be sweeter. Swans will win this one comfortably, no question. Tiges will pull the Vietcong gorilla game plan from the start and keep this physical throughout, so value has to be on taking the points. Plays: Tiges 1Q +13.5 / +55.5 / Under 166.5
GC v. Port @ Metricon +18.5 / 187.5 Can't believe I'm about to back the Suns after the shit they've played the past few rounds. And Tom Lynch has been a key to that. Not saying he's a bad player or a weak person, clearly he's a star. But he has shrivelled in big spots, that can't be denied. Staying true to original view on Port, which is to fade them. And this is the perfect spot: away, after a tough loss. Suns win this outright. Plays: Suns +18.5, Suns ML (1/2 unit) / Under 187.5
NM v. GWS @ Etihad +12.5 / 184.5 I've lost some $$ on Giants, thinking they've turned a corner each time. By "turn the corner", I only mean play with the grit and mental will that much more experienced teams play with. Shame on me. They have the talent to win this by 6 goals away, no doubt. We saw what the Roos did to a much better Swans team last round. 4 all-timers now playing their last game at home... balls-to-the-wall fellas. Plays: Roos 1Q +2.5 / 1H +6.5 / +12.5 (1/2 unit)
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Oh boy. Crows, at home, clearly on a let down after an all-out last round. Reinforces Suns play.
Geelong v. Melbourne @ Simonds -32.5 / 178.5 Cats should win this and cover, early and in the end. I liked how the Cats came out v Lions last week early (concerned about how they let off immediately after, of course, but it's a Scott-coached team). Dees are going to come out swinging, smarting from the shit level of footy they played last round. But, Dees beating Cats last year gives the Cats focus early. I think the Dees keep this interesting, but I think Cats win early and pul away in the end, at Simonds. Plays: Cats 1Q -7.5 / -32.5
Essendon v. Carlton @ MCG +19.5 / 171.5 Super tough game to cap. Initially thought I'd be Blues laying the points. At the 'G, better coach, more talent. At the same time, last match of the season for both teams, Bombers lost their last one (though covered), and this is over 3 goals. I can totally see Bombers playing a F-U game and going balls to the wall, and Blues being rightfully satisfied with a 1-2 goal win. No value here, but I'm playing the F-U angle. :) Play: Bombers +19.5
Syndey v. Richmond @ SCG -55.5 / 166.5 Since the Carlton "mail-it-in" performance at the SCG, the Swans have lifted. Big time. And now Tippett is back, and playing really well. Make no mistake - Swans win it all this year, and yours truly will be there to witness it. Against the Cats is my guess, but against the Hawks would be sweeter. Swans will win this one comfortably, no question. Tiges will pull the Vietcong gorilla game plan from the start and keep this physical throughout, so value has to be on taking the points. Plays: Tiges 1Q +13.5 / +55.5 / Under 166.5
GC v. Port @ Metricon +18.5 / 187.5 Can't believe I'm about to back the Suns after the shit they've played the past few rounds. And Tom Lynch has been a key to that. Not saying he's a bad player or a weak person, clearly he's a star. But he has shrivelled in big spots, that can't be denied. Staying true to original view on Port, which is to fade them. And this is the perfect spot: away, after a tough loss. Suns win this outright. Plays: Suns +18.5, Suns ML (1/2 unit) / Under 187.5
NM v. GWS @ Etihad +12.5 / 184.5 I've lost some $$ on Giants, thinking they've turned a corner each time. By "turn the corner", I only mean play with the grit and mental will that much more experienced teams play with. Shame on me. They have the talent to win this by 6 goals away, no doubt. We saw what the Roos did to a much better Swans team last round. 4 all-timers now playing their last game at home... balls-to-the-wall fellas. Plays: Roos 1Q +2.5 / 1H +6.5 / +12.5 (1/2 unit)
STK v. Brisbane @ Etihad -54.5 / 206.5 Sir Nick's last match as Capitaine, so clearly they'll win, and win well. Have to feel they'll be playing open-throttle after that Richmond Communist match (scores were rationed, clearly), but I don't trust them to defend the entire match. Plays: Saints 1Q -12.5 / 1H -26.5
Hawthorn v. Collingwood @ MCG -25.5 / 179.5 Another "weird" game. Hawks lost its key ruck. Pies play a physical game. A lot of points for this Hawks team to be laying v. Pies. But, Hawks off a loss, and Pies off a walk over. Mature team vs. maturing team. Hmmm, I think we know what that equation usually equals. Plays: Hawks 1Q -6.5 / -25.5... Live play watch: Will hammer the live H2 line at HT as Hawks are ridiculous at 'G then and Pies are far better 1H there. :)
Freo v. WB @ Domain +18.5 / 158.5 Christ, don't know what to make of this game. Doggies at the line seems like such a no-brainer that I can't play it. Same with the Over. I think I'll just skip this one altogether.
Best of luck gents!
Erich
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STK v. Brisbane @ Etihad -54.5 / 206.5 Sir Nick's last match as Capitaine, so clearly they'll win, and win well. Have to feel they'll be playing open-throttle after that Richmond Communist match (scores were rationed, clearly), but I don't trust them to defend the entire match. Plays: Saints 1Q -12.5 / 1H -26.5
Hawthorn v. Collingwood @ MCG -25.5 / 179.5 Another "weird" game. Hawks lost its key ruck. Pies play a physical game. A lot of points for this Hawks team to be laying v. Pies. But, Hawks off a loss, and Pies off a walk over. Mature team vs. maturing team. Hmmm, I think we know what that equation usually equals. Plays: Hawks 1Q -6.5 / -25.5... Live play watch: Will hammer the live H2 line at HT as Hawks are ridiculous at 'G then and Pies are far better 1H there. :)
Freo v. WB @ Domain +18.5 / 158.5 Christ, don't know what to make of this game. Doggies at the line seems like such a no-brainer that I can't play it. Same with the Over. I think I'll just skip this one altogether.
Swans out for blood in a revenge game. That Richmond loss at the siren still leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. Possession AND two frees given in the final seconds and the Swans still blew it. I can't wrap my head around it.
Richmond will play that VC gorilla game, as you put it, hahaha, but I think the Bloods will be really for those shenanigans this time around. And once they're through the door, that's it.
Any other insight for the Geelong/Melbourne match? It's on television tonight and I want some action. Hahaha.
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Swans out for blood in a revenge game. That Richmond loss at the siren still leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. Possession AND two frees given in the final seconds and the Swans still blew it. I can't wrap my head around it.
Richmond will play that VC gorilla game, as you put it, hahaha, but I think the Bloods will be really for those shenanigans this time around. And once they're through the door, that's it.
Any other insight for the Geelong/Melbourne match? It's on television tonight and I want some action. Hahaha.
Geelong needs this win to solidify a Top Four spot.
Dees done for the season.
What motivation do the Dees have here? They can play loose now that the pressure is off. Roos leaving and they will want to play hard for him.
35.5 looks a little too much, IMO. But then again, the Cats have everything to play for here and they might not get complacent, as they have been known to do, in the games they get up comfortable on.
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Geelong needs this win to solidify a Top Four spot.
Dees done for the season.
What motivation do the Dees have here? They can play loose now that the pressure is off. Roos leaving and they will want to play hard for him.
35.5 looks a little too much, IMO. But then again, the Cats have everything to play for here and they might not get complacent, as they have been known to do, in the games they get up comfortable on.
Well, I reckon the Dees coming out punching for Roosy tonight. They have a shot, if they win tonight, at one of their best seasons in a long while. I am not buying into the "they have nothing to play for" bent.
That said, Geelong has even more to play for, and margin WILL be on their minds as they are in quite a Top Four battle. Just getting across the line isn't enough.
With that in mind, the side is too difficult to get a read on. So let's look at the total. It jumped from 178.5 to 180.5 and has just gone down in the past few hours to 172.5. These two sides played to over 200 last season at Simonds and Geelong has been putting up some decent totals here all season long.
I have the Dees for a minimum of 70. They won't score less than this unless Geelong plays extremely slow off the mark, which they are the slowest off-the-mark team in the AFL. However, as we've mentioned, they are needing margin, not just a win. So they will be mindful of pace here.
That said, Geelong gets triple digits here easy. That's 170. I am sure we can find 3 points lying around somewhere.
Going to go against the late move and play the Over 172.5.
Good Luck Everyone!
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Well, I reckon the Dees coming out punching for Roosy tonight. They have a shot, if they win tonight, at one of their best seasons in a long while. I am not buying into the "they have nothing to play for" bent.
That said, Geelong has even more to play for, and margin WILL be on their minds as they are in quite a Top Four battle. Just getting across the line isn't enough.
With that in mind, the side is too difficult to get a read on. So let's look at the total. It jumped from 178.5 to 180.5 and has just gone down in the past few hours to 172.5. These two sides played to over 200 last season at Simonds and Geelong has been putting up some decent totals here all season long.
I have the Dees for a minimum of 70. They won't score less than this unless Geelong plays extremely slow off the mark, which they are the slowest off-the-mark team in the AFL. However, as we've mentioned, they are needing margin, not just a win. So they will be mindful of pace here.
That said, Geelong gets triple digits here easy. That's 170. I am sure we can find 3 points lying around somewhere.
Going to go against the late move and play the Over 172.5.
Hey buddy, missed you in here! Just back online and it looks like your total and my line plays should get across. You know, I totally neglected the earlier loss (how I've no idea)...
Cancelled the 1Q play and will likely take Swans. Thanks man.
What channel do you get the game on there?
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Hey buddy, missed you in here! Just back online and it looks like your total and my line plays should get across. You know, I totally neglected the earlier loss (how I've no idea)...
Cancelled the 1Q play and will likely take Swans. Thanks man.
Well, I reckon the Dees coming out punching for Roosy tonight. They have a shot, if they win tonight, at one of their best seasons in a long while. I am not buying into the "they have nothing to play for" bent.
That said, Geelong has even more to play for, and margin WILL be on their minds as they are in quite a Top Four battle. Just getting across the line isn't enough.
With that in mind, the side is too difficult to get a read on. So let's look at the total. It jumped from 178.5 to 180.5 and has just gone down in the past few hours to 172.5. These two sides played to over 200 last season at Simonds and Geelong has been putting up some decent totals here all season long.
I have the Dees for a minimum of 70. They won't score less than this unless Geelong plays extremely slow off the mark, which they are the slowest off-the-mark team in the AFL. However, as we've mentioned, they are needing margin, not just a win. So they will be mindful of pace here.
That said, Geelong gets triple digits here easy. That's 170. I am sure we can find 3 points lying around somewhere.
Going to go against the late move and play the Over 172.5.
Good Luck Everyone!
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Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Well, I reckon the Dees coming out punching for Roosy tonight. They have a shot, if they win tonight, at one of their best seasons in a long while. I am not buying into the "they have nothing to play for" bent.
That said, Geelong has even more to play for, and margin WILL be on their minds as they are in quite a Top Four battle. Just getting across the line isn't enough.
With that in mind, the side is too difficult to get a read on. So let's look at the total. It jumped from 178.5 to 180.5 and has just gone down in the past few hours to 172.5. These two sides played to over 200 last season at Simonds and Geelong has been putting up some decent totals here all season long.
I have the Dees for a minimum of 70. They won't score less than this unless Geelong plays extremely slow off the mark, which they are the slowest off-the-mark team in the AFL. However, as we've mentioned, they are needing margin, not just a win. So they will be mindful of pace here.
That said, Geelong gets triple digits here easy. That's 170. I am sure we can find 3 points lying around somewhere.
Going to go against the late move and play the Over 172.5.
Hey buddy, missed you in here! Just back online and it looks like your total and my line plays should get across. You know, I totally neglected the earlier loss (how I've no idea)...
Cancelled the 1Q play and will likely take Swans. Thanks man.
What channel do you get the game on there?
There's three channels here that play live games. Fox Soccer, Fox Sports 1, and Fox Sports 2,
Or I just catch the other ones online.
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Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:
Hey buddy, missed you in here! Just back online and it looks like your total and my line plays should get across. You know, I totally neglected the earlier loss (how I've no idea)...
Cancelled the 1Q play and will likely take Swans. Thanks man.
What channel do you get the game on there?
There's three channels here that play live games. Fox Soccer, Fox Sports 1, and Fox Sports 2,
Taking Bulldogs today -16.5. Pav's last game but I think we've all seen this round, the teams that have something to play for versus those whom are are walking it out. And it hasn't been pretty. Going with this trend today.
The Doggies will want to move with momentum into the Finals while Fremantle will just want to get Pav his 700th and then hurry back into the sheds to be the first to open his Carlton Mid.
Subiaco hasn't been kind to the Bulldogs as of late, but the wide-open nature of the ground I really think will highlight their strengths against a slow-moving and plodding Freo team. The excellent Doggie mids should have their way all over the pitch here, and as we all know, that is where the game is won.
One telling note, the price for WB 40+ is just a few dimes more than their price for 1-39. For a team favored only in the teens, that is unusual and I reckon the books are insulating themselves against a possible rout here.
Good Luck Everyone!
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Taking Bulldogs today -16.5. Pav's last game but I think we've all seen this round, the teams that have something to play for versus those whom are are walking it out. And it hasn't been pretty. Going with this trend today.
The Doggies will want to move with momentum into the Finals while Fremantle will just want to get Pav his 700th and then hurry back into the sheds to be the first to open his Carlton Mid.
Subiaco hasn't been kind to the Bulldogs as of late, but the wide-open nature of the ground I really think will highlight their strengths against a slow-moving and plodding Freo team. The excellent Doggie mids should have their way all over the pitch here, and as we all know, that is where the game is won.
One telling note, the price for WB 40+ is just a few dimes more than their price for 1-39. For a team favored only in the teens, that is unusual and I reckon the books are insulating themselves against a possible rout here.
I've been thinking of the Saints total game at 205.5 now, which as seemed too high from the start. Had a look at the team totals, with Saints at 129.5 and Lions at 76.5 or 75.5. The Lions' seems reasonable. The Saints' does not, whatever the leaky D of the Lions. At Etihad, Saints have only scored > 110 once, Round 6 v. Dees at 135 pts. Past 3 at Etihad against strong Ds, averaged 71. The previous 5 there, they averaged 105. 4 more goals today?? Not so fast... New play: Saints TT U 129.5
Similarly, Hawks Pies total at 179.5, at the 'G, seems too high. Moore is out, Hawks won't have trouble containing Cloake. I think the Pies struggle to hit 70 and the Hawks land low-mid 90s. New play: Under 179.5
Still don't know what to make of Dockers/Dogs...
Erich
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I've been thinking of the Saints total game at 205.5 now, which as seemed too high from the start. Had a look at the team totals, with Saints at 129.5 and Lions at 76.5 or 75.5. The Lions' seems reasonable. The Saints' does not, whatever the leaky D of the Lions. At Etihad, Saints have only scored > 110 once, Round 6 v. Dees at 135 pts. Past 3 at Etihad against strong Ds, averaged 71. The previous 5 there, they averaged 105. 4 more goals today?? Not so fast... New play: Saints TT U 129.5
Similarly, Hawks Pies total at 179.5, at the 'G, seems too high. Moore is out, Hawks won't have trouble containing Cloake. I think the Pies struggle to hit 70 and the Hawks land low-mid 90s. New play: Under 179.5
Sweated that 1Q win... Should be a 25 pt margin, with Sir Nick of all people giving away a cheap foul with his mate having a set shot from 25 out. Lions goaled a min later
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Sweated that 1Q win... Should be a 25 pt margin, with Sir Nick of all people giving away a cheap foul with his mate having a set shot from 25 out. Lions goaled a min later
I've been thinking of the Saints total game at 205.5 now, which as seemed too high from the start. Had a look at the team totals, with Saints at 129.5 and Lions at 76.5 or 75.5. The Lions' seems reasonable. The Saints' does not, whatever the leaky D of the Lions. At Etihad, Saints have only scored > 110 once, Round 6 v. Dees at 135 pts. Past 3 at Etihad against strong Ds, averaged 71. The previous 5 there, they averaged 105. 4 more goals today?? Not so fast... New play: Saints TT U 129.5
Similarly, Hawks Pies total at 179.5, at the 'G, seems too high. Moore is out, Hawks won't have trouble containing Cloake. I think the Pies struggle to hit 70 and the Hawks land low-mid 90s. New play: Under 179.5
Still don't know what to make of Dockers/Dogs...
Erich
Some very bizarre lines and totals moves this round. Most bizarre I have seen in years. That constant creep-up move from 45.5 to 59.5 on the Swans line an hour before the match was like watching the Wall Street DOW ticker flip around. Or the Geelong/Melbourne total. And all this without any major breaking news on outs or inclusions.
So wild!
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Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:
I've been thinking of the Saints total game at 205.5 now, which as seemed too high from the start. Had a look at the team totals, with Saints at 129.5 and Lions at 76.5 or 75.5. The Lions' seems reasonable. The Saints' does not, whatever the leaky D of the Lions. At Etihad, Saints have only scored > 110 once, Round 6 v. Dees at 135 pts. Past 3 at Etihad against strong Ds, averaged 71. The previous 5 there, they averaged 105. 4 more goals today?? Not so fast... New play: Saints TT U 129.5
Similarly, Hawks Pies total at 179.5, at the 'G, seems too high. Moore is out, Hawks won't have trouble containing Cloake. I think the Pies struggle to hit 70 and the Hawks land low-mid 90s. New play: Under 179.5
Still don't know what to make of Dockers/Dogs...
Erich
Some very bizarre lines and totals moves this round. Most bizarre I have seen in years. That constant creep-up move from 45.5 to 59.5 on the Swans line an hour before the match was like watching the Wall Street DOW ticker flip around. Or the Geelong/Melbourne total. And all this without any major breaking news on outs or inclusions.
If the Doggies line is a trap, then so be it. I've seen enough of this round to make the call.
Thought the Melbourne points were too much (so took the total over). Geelong murdered them.
Richmond getting five weeks pay against the Swans. Swans had the gameline covered at HALFTIME.
Essendon playing to avoid the spoon and GETTING 19.5 against an equally sh!thouse Carlton? Loved them moneyline too. Didn't bite, Essendon pushed them aside by a few goals.
This round might be "what you see is what you are going to get."
So, if the Doggies bet loses, so be it. But after seeing what I've saw this round, it's the play for me!
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If the Doggies line is a trap, then so be it. I've seen enough of this round to make the call.
Thought the Melbourne points were too much (so took the total over). Geelong murdered them.
Richmond getting five weeks pay against the Swans. Swans had the gameline covered at HALFTIME.
Essendon playing to avoid the spoon and GETTING 19.5 against an equally sh!thouse Carlton? Loved them moneyline too. Didn't bite, Essendon pushed them aside by a few goals.
This round might be "what you see is what you are going to get."
So, if the Doggies bet loses, so be it. But after seeing what I've saw this round, it's the play for me!
Did the Swans line move that much in an hour?! Wow!!
I have to admit I fell for the "Here Kitty, Kitty!" total on the Saints. Never (or rarely) play opposite the side that doesn't make sense. There's bound to be a reason for it, and it's not just Joe Public driving it.
I didn't account for the Saints not having to play full-on contested footy in this game, which means less energy expended on D and therefore more available on O. Glad the line plays cleared though.
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Did the Swans line move that much in an hour?! Wow!!
I have to admit I fell for the "Here Kitty, Kitty!" total on the Saints. Never (or rarely) play opposite the side that doesn't make sense. There's bound to be a reason for it, and it's not just Joe Public driving it.
I didn't account for the Saints not having to play full-on contested footy in this game, which means less energy expended on D and therefore more available on O. Glad the line plays cleared though.
If the Doggies line is a trap, then so be it. I've seen enough of this round to make the call.Thought the Melbourne points were too much (so took the total over). Geelong murdered them.Richmond getting five weeks pay against the Swans. Swans had the gameline covered at HALFTIME.Essendon playing to avoid the spoon and GETTING 19.5 against an equally sh!thouse Carlton? Loved them moneyline too. Didn't bite, Essendon pushed them aside by a few goals.This round might be "what you see is what you are going to get."So, if the Doggies bet loses, so be it. But after seeing what I've saw this round, it's the play for me!
I don't know bud... Firstly, have you to thank for the insights on Swannies/Tiges, thumbs up.
When I look at this Doggies match, I can't find a reason for them to win by two goals. What changes for them? You've got a tired and depleted side who has proven everyone wrong time n and out when it matters. My understanding is that they finish 7th regardless.
A loose Freo team, at home...
Doggies ethos and consistency more importantly suggests a solid win... On the other hand, they're humans, have been put through a blender this season, literally, and I just can't put $ behind them. Yet.
I actually think the Under will clear, so will play that:
Dockers/Doggies Under 158.5
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Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
If the Doggies line is a trap, then so be it. I've seen enough of this round to make the call.Thought the Melbourne points were too much (so took the total over). Geelong murdered them.Richmond getting five weeks pay against the Swans. Swans had the gameline covered at HALFTIME.Essendon playing to avoid the spoon and GETTING 19.5 against an equally sh!thouse Carlton? Loved them moneyline too. Didn't bite, Essendon pushed them aside by a few goals.This round might be "what you see is what you are going to get."So, if the Doggies bet loses, so be it. But after seeing what I've saw this round, it's the play for me!
I don't know bud... Firstly, have you to thank for the insights on Swannies/Tiges, thumbs up.
When I look at this Doggies match, I can't find a reason for them to win by two goals. What changes for them? You've got a tired and depleted side who has proven everyone wrong time n and out when it matters. My understanding is that they finish 7th regardless.
A loose Freo team, at home...
Doggies ethos and consistency more importantly suggests a solid win... On the other hand, they're humans, have been put through a blender this season, literally, and I just can't put $ behind them. Yet.
I actually think the Under will clear, so will play that:
For a team favored only in the teens, that is unusual and I reckon the books are insulating themselves against a possible rout here.
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