Red's Daily Plays!

@archtown

Thanks for letting me know? == You win!

Hey red,

been looking at a bunch of different books! Quite a bit of choices, wanted to ask though are there any ones you’ve thought were most helpful! Ive ordered a few !

Actually, I can't recommend any particular book, because I didn't create my power ratings using any book model. My method is very similar to Jeff Sagerins. I usually come up with the same numbers as he does, except for the 34 method, which tweaks the numbers, to where I feel I have an advantage. The younger modern day handicappers use very sophisticated data to build their power ratings. I am archaic, so I still use the same analytics that I did 35 years ago. If it isn't broke, don't fix it. You can say it's the KISS way of building a power rating. The most important thing you need to understand is that the present day odds-makers are on top of everything. The day of comparing your power ratings against theirs, and being a winner, are long since over IMO. Without my tweak, I would never find value. The lines are just too sharp. So, unfortunately, you can have the best power rating there are to make, yet it will still not enable you to beat the number the odds-makers put out. Sagerin, Massey & Ken Pomroy have the best power rating there are. Yet, using them as your only tool, will not help you pick winners. Sad but true. Without my tweak, I would be a like a fish out of water. That's the bottom line. I hope this post does not discourage you, but you asked me a question, so I am trying to give you the most honest answer I can. It is extremely hard to be a consistent winner, when wagering on sporting events. It's like trying to be a grand master in chess. Some people just have the knack for certain endeavors. I was a loser for many of my teenage years before I figured out how to beat the line, more often than not. Many years of hard work & being fortunate enough to have great mentors. Hitting 56% of your wagers at - 110 should be your goal. I have been very lucky to be at 60% against the number, so far this season. Luck plays a HUGE part in gambling, sometimes it goes your way, other times it will not. There's nothing you can do about that fact. But, if you trust your numbers you can still play with confidence, knowing that luck evens out in the long run. I always say, "I am not the sharpest tool in the toolbox". There are a vast number of subjects I know very little about. But I have immersed myself in Gambling my whole life, so I like to think I can pass on some good advice to someone who asks for it. I hope that somewhat answers your question.

@Redlad

 Got it, thanks red! I appreciate it, not discouraged !

After that long winded reply, I'm going to start a new thread.

Nice record!

@KeyMaster

Thanks my friend 

Last 2 Posted Plays 0-2                                       YTD 77W   49L  + 2525    Units Of Profit On Posted Plays.

Wild - 115     Got in on a decent price at bet online. The last I looked, they still had  -119

Oilers-Flyers Under 7 Goals - 115     Bet at Heritage (my nemesis)

Heritage offering me great value on their numbers. The only problem is they beat me 9 times in a row. Four of which were 3 to 1 favorites, who lost their games straight up. I played those on the 3 way line, thank goodness. Yesterday, they tried to lure me into betting the Penguins. This time I passed, & watched the Islanders win without their best player out of the line-up. Since I'm tired of being their personal piggy-bank, I'll only accept their offer, if I can scalp the game. Otherwise, I'm passing. Today's offers, I had a friend bet the other way. These plays will be ==

Redwings + 240 3-way-line     = 1/2 Unit

Golden-Knights-Blackhawks TIE  + 380 3 way-line  = 1/2 Unit

Best Of Luck                               Please Bet Responsibly ======== Let's Go!!

Just covered my behind on an overtime 3 way +350 for 1/2 Unit regarding the Kings-Wild game. I don't like the line movement I'm seeing.

Nice call on the tie in the Blackhawk’s game, tailed and got +405.  

@odog111

We were lucky. The Blackhawks scored with less than a minute to go in regulation. But, I'll take it. Glad you cashed.

Hey red ,

i went with the jets before the line started changing, there were a bunch of reasons why I went with the jets. Is the line movement a good sign ? I got them when they were still -104 now they are -110. Also took the three way win no OT. Was curious on your thoughts !

@Merle_iv

Heavy Hitter is betting the Islanders - 1.5  + 230. I'm going to the game with him later tonight. The Islanders are pretty banged up. So, you have that going for you, but they are coming off a win, without Barzal. The Jets were very lucky to beat the Rangers the other night. They got out shot something like 51 to 21, if my memory serves me correctly. HELLEBUYCK stood on his head, making one great save after another. I lean toward the Islanders, because the Jets have the Avalanche on deck, but I'm not betting the game, so go with your instincts. Good Luck. If you win, I won't have sore ribs. I'll give you another tip concerning the 34 method if you like in another post.

wowwww

@Redlad

 Of course I’d love more into the 34 method ! I’m always here to learn ! 

Yesterday 3-0 but they wound up being all 1/2 Unit wins. So, I want to get my bottom line correct, so I am not accused of fudging my record. + 410 for the night.

YTD   80W   49L   62%    + 2935    Units Of Profit  == Today's Plays

Stars Over 3.5 Goals - 150 ========= I just think the Stars can snap out of their scoring slump, against a weary Blackhawk squad.

Coyotes + 320   3 way line   1/2 Unit

Flames-Coyotes   OT   3 way line  + 4 to 1   1/2 Unit  ==== Not feeling the Flames tonight, we'll see.

Best Of Luck                         Please Bet Responsibly ======== Let's Go!!

I am glad I did switch over too islanders to win 3 way after seeing your post and doing some more research, still trying to come to that conclusion earlier though!

@Merle_iv

I'm glad you switched. I wish I would have followed my own advice. A tough night with the Stars scoring their 4th goal at 60.5 seconds of the 3rd period. That's why I always say LUCK is always an equation in gambling, one can't control. Hopefully the gambling gods will be kinder to me tonight. Keep punching. Study quantum physics. It will enhance your handicapping skills. It's part of the 34 method.

Yesterday 0-2  -250   Tough beat on the Dallas Total= They scored a half a second too late.  YTD 80W 5-1L  + 2685 Units.

Was going to go against the Rangers, but they had 51 shots on goal, last game, so their offense is still putting pressure on opposing goaltenders. Also, the Wings coming off a successful road trip, and haven't seen their families for quite some time, so I'm not sure their focus will be 100%. A pass for me.

My only official play will be the Golden Knights - 125.

I did make some 1/2 Unit plays, but the confidence level on those small wagers are not as high. I will only post those by request.

Best Of Luck ============ Please Bet Responsibly ========= Let's Go!

Got it !! Will get studying, was actually about to take a class on prediction models with sports data, using python. 

@Merle_iv

Good start!

Another close one ! So I’ve probably spent 5-6 hours reading about different theories of quantum physics, how it relates to probability and different theories on it. I’ve seen a lot, most mention something if a hidden factor influencing everything. I’m curious how I can understand it a little more 

@Redlad

Hey Red...congrats/kudos for all your efforts here, and for having a great 60+ percentage.  And I'm not trying to jinx you no way lol...and I definitely agree with the gambling gods perspective that you hold.

Wondering about something, and I would greatly appreciate any light you can shed.  Basically it's a question about if the tail ever wags the dog once the opening lines are offered.  I'm pretty sure we all know the process of line movement, but is it always the bettors' actions and then the line reaction (after the opening line)?  Would the line ever move without external pressure up or down?  Anything you could say (in general or more directly) about this would be terrific.  I'm not thinking of the O/U or even TTs movement, just the ML fluctuation.  I'm not referring to RLM, Red...just the actual line movement either way.  After the opening lines are offered, is it always a reaction or would it ever happen without external pressures?

Thanks very much, Red...and I'm not trying to pry or ask anything that would be considered not for public consumption.  Appreciate you, bud !!!

Cheers  

RED 

@Merle_iv

Now read about Tesla's theories on the number 3