I am not knocking anyone’s pick at all.
I get that some folks just want a play to have action. I have no problem with that at all.
But I see a lot of folks playing Carolina tonight at -160/-165 or so.
To me, you have to consider if you have a positive edge in this situation or not.
At this number the implied probability is 61.5%.
If you look at the season’s records at home and away, the L10 in this situation and the head-to-head at the opening lines at that time — you see a different picture.
Then when you consider the power ratings, goalies, expected goals, current form -- it also clouds the picture a bit.
These simulations and models would have me put the line at -147/-150 or so.
This means I think you would be betting into a negative edge and not a positive edge. Around a -1.5% negative edge.
For you to realize a reasonable edge of +4.5% you would have to originally have placed the line at around -200.
If you consider that all of their games this season have gone to OT except for the opener where Carolina jumped out early after being rested, it shows a tighter game might be considered a likelihood.
I get that some folks just want a play. I just do not see value or an edge here. I even think Carolina most likely wins. But if there is one game Philadelphia wins, I think it might be this one.
I see a very slight positive edge on the U5.5. But not really enough to play it either.
Again, I understand it is the playoffs and folks just want to play.
I just want a good close series. So, sort of would lie to see Philadelphia tighten the series up tonight.
So no problem, if folks just play it for action.
Good luck to all that have either team tonight.
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