Yes. they're done. They climbed the mountain last year, and now they're fat & happy. Toronto are hungry, unlike Florida. More importantly Toronto is fresh, unlike Florida (54 playoff games under their belts the last 2 years & a bit vs. Toronto's 18).
Florida's consecutive playoff runs to the SCF were built on one thing: defense. The last 3 completed post seasons, Florida conceded 4+ goals in a game vs. Eastern Conf. opponents only 8 times in 43 games. So far these playoffs they've conceded 4+ goals 3 times in their just their last 5 games.
In the following game off those previous 8 instances their defense gave up an avg. of 1.75 GA, on 7 of those 8 occasions holding their opponents to 2 goals or less. Against Eastern Conf. opponents they never once conceded 4+ goals in consecutive games, but here they've already conceded 2 x 4+ goal totals in consecutive games vs. Toronto (none of which were empty netters).
Finally, Florida's defense never started any series against an EC opponent slowly during their two SCF runs. In 6 playoff series wins vs. EC opponents over the last 2 seasons, Florida conceded a miserly avg. of 2.08 GA over the opening two of a new series. Their avg. for this current series' first 2 games = 4.50 GA.
It takes more energy on defense than it does offense. Two deep playoff runs and these guys are done. The cracks are showing badly. In the 22-23 playoff series meeting between these 2 teams, Toronto's offense only managed to score 10 goals over 5 games against Florida's defense. They managed half of that total in just game 1 without needing an empty netter. They're 1 short of matching that total after just 2 games, again no empty netter.
I will wait for Florida to put in their one huge effort of this series in game 3 to ensure they don't get swept, then I'll put a big bet on Toronto to win the series at much better odds than they are now. People will believe Florida's back after their expected g3 win, but it'll be smoke and mirrors. IMO their game 3 defensive effort will betray how long they'll make this series last for. 2 goals or less, 6 games minimum. 3 goals, no more than 6 games. 4+ goals again? Be lucky to see a game 6.
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