YOUR P.D.M. (POINTS DON'T MATTER) UPDATE

At the start of the season I posted on how the points don't matter in NFL games as far as winning or losing a bet(s). This is a known fact (unknown to most) year after year. Just pick the outright winner of the game and don't worry about the points. Have a knack for picking game winners straight up ?.....well, If you do take a look. After 4 weeks in the NFL the PDM total so far are : 52-7-2 (13-0-0 in week 4). I will be back at mid season with your next update, till then, best of luck to you all.   Ice Man 

BTW...... last year PDM total was : 211-42-4.

This won't sit well with many of our - "getting the best line" - obsessed brethren 

Nope .....it will not ! ....but it is what it is.

it's the same in college--about 75% the past 3 years.

 

what is P.D.M , can you please explain

Spider-P.D.M. means that the winner of the game covers the spread. So if you like a fav., don't worry about the spread. If you like a dog, take the money line, don't worry about the points.

Is he saying bet the dogs you like on the moneyline

or

if you like a dog, don't let line movement scare you off, if a dog covers the spread, the movement didn't matter?

 

52-7-2 (13-0-0 in week 4).........What is that a record of?

does this take into account double reverse trap line movement?

I usually throw out games where the line is 7 or more, and a significant number of games are at least 7 points margin of victory. There are even a noteworthy number of games where the margin is at least 10 points. I agree with Ice Man. As a starting point, go with who you will think will win the game, except in the case of the Bucs playing the Steelers.

52-7-2 (13-0-0 in week 4).........What is that a record of?

52 game winners covered the spread-7 game winners lost the spread-two game winners landed on the spread.

Thank You

So are you not going to post your weekly picks, with the PDM in mind?

People can't read in this thread.  

interesting thread..... for example if you think Arizona +7 against denver has a value just bet Zona ml....

i might parlay Zona and Rams ml this week than.

 

I have never tracked PDM in college games, but have been told that the % are much much lower, not that a few years couldn't be in line with the NFL %'s. NFL is year in and year out.  Good luck to you. 

Exactly, ICE MAN posted this last year, I went back and checked, sure enough he was right, 89% chance POINTS DONT MATTER so far this season, took the Chefs ML and Bolts -12 with confidence this past weekend, good luck fellas

Thats right, points don't matter 83% of the time. But that 17% is where you will NEVER know which games will hit on losing but covering. So playing ML on dogs while profitable can hurt you. Lets say you play 4 dogs ML and 1 dog wins outright, 1 lose ATS and 2 covers ATS. Depending on the value of the ML play won you're in the hole when had you played the points yours be 3-1. Instead you're 1-3. So IMO thats a very stupid way to look at it is playing ML on dogs simply because you DONT know which games will hit and which will win.

Yes; No?

OP,

Points did matter alot this week for me. Had rams +6.5, texans +6.5.

but i see your point.... i am going to keep a close eye on your system.

Any time the favorite covers the spread, your Points Don't Matter (P.D.M.) total increases.

Any time the underdog wins the game, your (P.D.M.) total increases.

The only time it doesn't increase is when a favorite wins the game but doesn't cover the spread.

Since a majority of all games have a spread of four or even three points or less, this is a very small window.   Meaning, the chance that the favorite will win the game AND yet will win by less than spread probably won't happen.  The likelihood of another outcome is very high.

Thus, naturally the overall "record" for P.D.M. will seem very "impressive."

Unfortunately, this doesn't help you.  It doesn't.  You still have to decide whether to take the favorite or the dog.

Last year, favorites covered the spread 49.21% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 47.24% of the time.  (3.54% pushes)

In 2012 the numbers are similar.  Favorites covered the spread 46.46% of the time.  'Dog's covered the spread 51.97% of the time.  (1.57% pushes.)

In 2011, favorites covered the spread 45.70% of the time and underdogs covered the spread 50.39% of the time.  (3.91% pushes.)

THOSE percentages are meaningful.  I'm sorry, but a record of 52-7-2 after Week 4 is meaningless... it doesn't help you.

A few more percentages, from my database:

In 2013 favorites won straight up 68.77% of the time.  Underdogs won straight up 31.23% of the time.

In 2012 favorites won straight up 64.43% of the time.  Underdogs won straight up 35.57% of the time.

In 2011 favorites won straight up 66.41% of the time.  Underdogs won straight up 33.59% of the time.