I would suspect the Falcons will have a regression to the mean this season.
They were not as good as their 13-3 record last year, that according to my info and the info of other web sites that have proven to be fairly accurate.
The last time Atlanta posted a good record in 2011 my info and the other web sites had them not as good as their record then as well and a regression to the mean happened the following season, and back to earth they came.
They need help on defense for one thing.
I would suspect the Falcons will have a regression to the mean this season.
They were not as good as their 13-3 record last year, that according to my info and the info of other web sites that have proven to be fairly accurate.
The last time Atlanta posted a good record in 2011 my info and the other web sites had them not as good as their record then as well and a regression to the mean happened the following season, and back to earth they came.
They need help on defense for one thing.
I'll add to this, last season Atlanta led the league in games defined as clutch wins, 7.
And they led the league in clutch win record %, 7-3, 70%.
History shows 80% of teams with 6 such wins regressed the following season in overall wins by about 10% and they regressed in clutch wins by 3.75 fewer clutch wins the following season.
teams with 6+ clutch wins would win 61% of clutch situations on ave then regress to winning just 36% of clutch situations the next year.
In other words, clutch wins seem to be more luck then skill and are not very repeatable.
77.1% of teams with 6+ clutch wins made the playoffs that season but just 52.3% of those teams would make the playoffs the following season, big regression.
By the way, Colts were also 7-3 in clutch wins.
Also, the last time Atlanta had 6 clutch wins was 2010, and they regressed the following season in both overall record and clutch wins.
I'll add to this, last season Atlanta led the league in games defined as clutch wins, 7.
And they led the league in clutch win record %, 7-3, 70%.
History shows 80% of teams with 6 such wins regressed the following season in overall wins by about 10% and they regressed in clutch wins by 3.75 fewer clutch wins the following season.
teams with 6+ clutch wins would win 61% of clutch situations on ave then regress to winning just 36% of clutch situations the next year.
In other words, clutch wins seem to be more luck then skill and are not very repeatable.
77.1% of teams with 6+ clutch wins made the playoffs that season but just 52.3% of those teams would make the playoffs the following season, big regression.
By the way, Colts were also 7-3 in clutch wins.
Also, the last time Atlanta had 6 clutch wins was 2010, and they regressed the following season in both overall record and clutch wins.
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