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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Why are people so against buying points

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    chillinghard09
    jesron1269
    jpot34
    wizardofroz
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    chillinghard09
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 1:14 AM ET #1

    I know overtime you lose money on the tax but if buying points equals buying wins then what's the problem with it?

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    I know overtime you lose money on the tax but if buying points equals buying wins then what's the problem with it?

     
    jesron1269
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 1:26 AM ET #2

    Because it is a losing proposition in the long run. The higher the juice the more the hit to your bankroll with each loss. 

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    Because it is a losing proposition in the long run. The higher the juice the more the hit to your bankroll with each loss. 

     
    jpot34
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 1:36 AM ET #3

    @chillinghard09

     You lose by buying points also. Kills your chance for profitability over a season.

    6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS!
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    @chillinghard09

     You lose by buying points also. Kills your chance for profitability over a season.

     
    wizardofroz
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 1:43 AM ET #4

    Making your normal bet, and SELLING points as well for a much smaller bet or part of a parlay, is the way to go IMO.

    And to echo jesron's thoughts above, BUYING points is foolish IMO, and the extra juice will quickly DESTROY your bankroll.

     

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    Making your normal bet, and SELLING points as well for a much smaller bet or part of a parlay, is the way to go IMO.

    And to echo jesron's thoughts above, BUYING points is foolish IMO, and the extra juice will quickly DESTROY your bankroll.

     

     
    ActionMagnet
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 3:12 AM ET #5

    On occasion being selective yes there’s value in buying up or down a point.

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    On occasion being selective yes there’s value in buying up or down a point.

     
    OddShaad
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 3:45 AM ET #6

    Most of the time it doesn't matter, combined with the reasons given earlier in the thread it's better to judge the line movement during the week and take it from there. Like tonight for example.

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    Most of the time it doesn't matter, combined with the reasons given earlier in the thread it's better to judge the line movement during the week and take it from there. Like tonight for example.

     
    tech65
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 4:14 AM ET #7

    Do whatever helps you win. 

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    Do whatever helps you win. 

     
    elitecap
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 5:49 AM ET #8

    cost about 35% extra in juice to buy up 1.5 points in NFL. 

    how many games this season would buying up 1.5 points have made a difference in the spread?

     

    not enough to where it’s worth paying 35% extra juice a bet for, and that’s where you’ll ultimate lose long term and deplete your bankroll. It’s better to just take your losses with the original lines.

     

    *this applies if you bet consistent units per game over a long period of time*

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    cost about 35% extra in juice to buy up 1.5 points in NFL. 

    how many games this season would buying up 1.5 points have made a difference in the spread?

     

    not enough to where it’s worth paying 35% extra juice a bet for, and that’s where you’ll ultimate lose long term and deplete your bankroll. It’s better to just take your losses with the original lines.

     

    *this applies if you bet consistent units per game over a long period of time*

     
    King-Muaj
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 8:20 AM ET #9

    Love buying points...it works wonders for me...lolan_roll_laugh

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    Love buying points...it works wonders for me...lolan_roll_laugh

     
    vanzack
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 9:08 AM ET #10

    Simple case of paying too much for what you are getting.

    The points you are buying have a price.  That price is too high in relation to the value of the points you are buying.

    It is like going to buy a new car, and paying the dealer to put tint on for triple the price of the cost of the tint.  Sure, the tint is great - but the price you are paying is way too expensive.

    Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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    Simple case of paying too much for what you are getting.

    The points you are buying have a price.  That price is too high in relation to the value of the points you are buying.

    It is like going to buy a new car, and paying the dealer to put tint on for triple the price of the cost of the tint.  Sure, the tint is great - but the price you are paying is way too expensive.

     
    njsupreme1
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 9:20 AM ET #11

    Nothing wrong with buying points in certain games to get off key numbers....

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    Nothing wrong with buying points in certain games to get off key numbers....

     
    tpr09
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 9:28 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

    Because it is a losing proposition in the long run. The higher the juice the more the hit to your bankroll with each loss.

    This sums it up.  However I do buy .5 depending on the juice for some games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jesron1269:

    Because it is a losing proposition in the long run. The higher the juice the more the hit to your bankroll with each loss.

    This sums it up.  However I do buy .5 depending on the juice for some games.

     
    buttas
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 9:44 AM ET #13

    -110

    -110

    and -110 always for a side (spread/total)

    less than -110 you may be on the wrong side, or you may be on the right side but wrong #, OR you may have the right # right side at a discount.

     

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    -110

    -110

    and -110 always for a side (spread/total)

    less than -110 you may be on the wrong side, or you may be on the right side but wrong #, OR you may have the right # right side at a discount.

     

     
    JDD
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 9:46 AM ET #14

    Lotta times, if I find myself tempted to buy points, like last night for example, because I was never gonna bet on Denver but I was not crazy about laying 4 or 4.5, it normally pays off to wait for a live line.  

    If the dog drives early, the live line will almost certainly overreact and give you a much closer to even money moneyline, or a better spread.  

    If the fave goes up early, whatever, no bet is fine.  Or just be patient, parity usually takes over during the game nowadays anyway.

    Last night was kind of the perfect example for this, I didn't wanna pay -210 ML, or lay -4, and buying it down to -2.5 was just too close to the ML and felt dumb.  So I waited and ended up getting the ML at -135, another line +4.5 @ -112, and a -2.5 line later on @ -110......which were all better priced options than what Vegas offered me from the start.  

    Just got lucky really, doesn't always present itself perfectly like that.  If I was really sharp I could've gotten the Bolts ML at nice plus odds when they were down 10.  Those lines were out there.  I didn't have the balls or foresight for that, and I probably got too excited and pounced too early on the ML and +4.5.  It can be difficult to buy when the market is falling, but that is really one of the best ways to beak the book.  They know it is against our human nature to do it.  

    I think it is good that people look at the options, and do not just take the Vegas line, but consider your live options and also consider passing entirely if the weather is not perfect for your lean.

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    Lotta times, if I find myself tempted to buy points, like last night for example, because I was never gonna bet on Denver but I was not crazy about laying 4 or 4.5, it normally pays off to wait for a live line.  

    If the dog drives early, the live line will almost certainly overreact and give you a much closer to even money moneyline, or a better spread.  

    If the fave goes up early, whatever, no bet is fine.  Or just be patient, parity usually takes over during the game nowadays anyway.

    Last night was kind of the perfect example for this, I didn't wanna pay -210 ML, or lay -4, and buying it down to -2.5 was just too close to the ML and felt dumb.  So I waited and ended up getting the ML at -135, another line +4.5 @ -112, and a -2.5 line later on @ -110......which were all better priced options than what Vegas offered me from the start.  

    Just got lucky really, doesn't always present itself perfectly like that.  If I was really sharp I could've gotten the Bolts ML at nice plus odds when they were down 10.  Those lines were out there.  I didn't have the balls or foresight for that, and I probably got too excited and pounced too early on the ML and +4.5.  It can be difficult to buy when the market is falling, but that is really one of the best ways to beak the book.  They know it is against our human nature to do it.  

    I think it is good that people look at the options, and do not just take the Vegas line, but consider your live options and also consider passing entirely if the weather is not perfect for your lean.

     
    User854910
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 10:27 AM ET #15

    Post Deleted
    Don't let the book set the number
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    buttas
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 10:41 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:

    Quote Originally Posted by njsupreme1: Nothing wrong with buying points in certain games to get off key numbers.... Nothing wrong with passing on a game where you contemplate buying points is my take on the topic

    an_light

    If u gotta buy points it’s probably best to pass.. you missed out. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:

    Quote Originally Posted by njsupreme1: Nothing wrong with buying points in certain games to get off key numbers.... Nothing wrong with passing on a game where you contemplate buying points is my take on the topic

    an_light

    If u gotta buy points it’s probably best to pass.. you missed out. 

     
    Tressel33
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 11:06 AM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by chillinghard09:

    I know overtime you lose money on the tax but if buying points equals buying wins then what's the problem with it?

     

    I guess because they must win all the time, and feel it doesn't matter if they choose the winning side and end up pushing. I would rather lose a little juice, and win my whole bet, as opposed to pushing and winning nothing. That's just me though 

    CatchMyPick
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    Quote Originally Posted by chillinghard09:

    I know overtime you lose money on the tax but if buying points equals buying wins then what's the problem with it?

     

    I guess because they must win all the time, and feel it doesn't matter if they choose the winning side and end up pushing. I would rather lose a little juice, and win my whole bet, as opposed to pushing and winning nothing. That's just me though 

     
    njsupreme1
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 11:37 AM ET #18

    @unplucked_gem

     Agreed...like last night's game! 

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    @unplucked_gem

     Agreed...like last night's game! 

     
    Crater
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 12:02 PM ET #19

    If you take Pinnacle`s lines as a reference and you consider their lines to be pretty sharp, buying points is not that much of a big deal.

    They usually charge 2,5-3% juice on the main spread line and 3,5-3,8% juice on the other handicaps. That loss of about 0,8-1% juice equals to around 3 or 4 tics on a line around evens ( so -108 instead of -105 for example).

    So essentially, you are losing some EV but mostly you are playing with variance, which you should not direct your attention to too much on the long run, if you keep it calm and steady.

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    If you take Pinnacle`s lines as a reference and you consider their lines to be pretty sharp, buying points is not that much of a big deal.

    They usually charge 2,5-3% juice on the main spread line and 3,5-3,8% juice on the other handicaps. That loss of about 0,8-1% juice equals to around 3 or 4 tics on a line around evens ( so -108 instead of -105 for example).

    So essentially, you are losing some EV but mostly you are playing with variance, which you should not direct your attention to too much on the long run, if you keep it calm and steady.

     
    PepeFrog
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 12:09 PM ET #20

    Buying points via teasers has been profitable for me. moneybag

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    Buying points via teasers has been profitable for me. moneybag

     
    Aronrogers
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 12:44 PM ET #21

    Like anything else you need to know when to buy .I win most of the time maybe 80% of the time but I pick my spot's I don't do it a lot

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    Like anything else you need to know when to buy .I win most of the time maybe 80% of the time but I pick my spot's I don't do it a lot

     
    Freddy66
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 5:58 PM ET #22

    3 in the NFL and 3 and 7 in college, only if your book has decent prices on buying those numbers. 

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    3 in the NFL and 3 and 7 in college, only if your book has decent prices on buying those numbers. 

     
    ThirdEye4747
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 6:00 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronrogers:

    Like anything else you need to know when to buy .I win most of the time maybe 80% of the time but I pick my spot's I don't do it a lot

    You win 80% of the time? an_roll_laugh

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aronrogers:

    Like anything else you need to know when to buy .I win most of the time maybe 80% of the time but I pick my spot's I don't do it a lot

    You win 80% of the time? an_roll_laugh

     
    camby700
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 6:11 PM ET #24

    Ive never bought points in my life but i can see the reasoning when line are in the 3 and 7 range

    peace_5

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    Ive never bought points in my life but i can see the reasoning when line are in the 3 and 7 range

    peace_5

     
     
    vanzack
    vanzack
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    Posted: Oct. 18, 2022 - 6:47 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by Freddy66:

    3 in the NFL and 3 and 7 in college, only if your book has decent prices on buying those numbers.

    Not anymore.

    2 and 6 are the new 3 and 7.

    peace_5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freddy66:

    3 in the NFL and 3 and 7 in college, only if your book has decent prices on buying those numbers.

    Not anymore.

    2 and 6 are the new 3 and 7.

    peace_5

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