Last week was tough.... I did not feel good about last week and I think the mistake I made in retrospect was to play thursday night and pushing it...
The other mistake was to play against NE and IND, both teams with enough offense to break the +13 points ATS...
Last week sucked for +13 points ATS there were 7 losers on the board out of the 16 games... Making the percentage 78.12%.... tough to win that percentage and usually I do better in the middle of the season and then tank again at the end...
I like this week better tho, but I do not think it is great... But here we go...
CHI +0.5 I think CHI wins its home opener and their defense should do well against a weak KC offense...
Although two of the homedogs went down last week I am always inclined to take a look at those first..
MIA +17 I feel like this a home dog worth looking at especially with DAL being a historically overrated team that is coming off of a 45 point performance...
This might also a week to consider a 3 team +10 point teaser with the numbers of the JAX, DEN and PIT games.... But I could add these games into the teasers also, but taking 3 teams to SU might be worth it...
I have to admit I am afraid to play the homedogs playing against IND and CIN and potential for a big game...CIN put up 30+ points in each game last year... TEN has played close and well against IND last year as something to consider...IND might be overrated at this point with their big win against NO...
ARZ +16 is an interesting idea.. SEA last year was 3-5 on the road SU.... and playing against them might be a pick to consider...
Last week was tough.... I did not feel good about last week and I think the mistake I made in retrospect was to play thursday night and pushing it...
The other mistake was to play against NE and IND, both teams with enough offense to break the +13 points ATS...
Last week sucked for +13 points ATS there were 7 losers on the board out of the 16 games... Making the percentage 78.12%.... tough to win that percentage and usually I do better in the middle of the season and then tank again at the end...
I like this week better tho, but I do not think it is great... But here we go...
CHI +0.5 I think CHI wins its home opener and their defense should do well against a weak KC offense...
Although two of the homedogs went down last week I am always inclined to take a look at those first..
MIA +17 I feel like this a home dog worth looking at especially with DAL being a historically overrated team that is coming off of a 45 point performance...
This might also a week to consider a 3 team +10 point teaser with the numbers of the JAX, DEN and PIT games.... But I could add these games into the teasers also, but taking 3 teams to SU might be worth it...
I have to admit I am afraid to play the homedogs playing against IND and CIN and potential for a big game...CIN put up 30+ points in each game last year... TEN has played close and well against IND last year as something to consider...IND might be overrated at this point with their big win against NO...
ARZ +16 is an interesting idea.. SEA last year was 3-5 on the road SU.... and playing against them might be a pick to consider...
I assume that the ravens will be favored and them winning SU makes sense... however the line is not out on alot of books probably due to injuries and this mgiht be a game to take a look at once this is assessed better..
I assume that the ravens will be favored and them winning SU makes sense... however the line is not out on alot of books probably due to injuries and this mgiht be a game to take a look at once this is assessed better..
i dont love miami in that teaser, just risky the way dallas is capable of scoring, kind of like taking the jets last week.
cinci is an easy one id think.saints-i dont think the bucs can beat anybody by 10, probably the rams more than the niners, but like em both. ive never played a 13 pt teaser in my life btw
i dont love miami in that teaser, just risky the way dallas is capable of scoring, kind of like taking the jets last week.
cinci is an easy one id think.saints-i dont think the bucs can beat anybody by 10, probably the rams more than the niners, but like em both. ive never played a 13 pt teaser in my life btw
Eagles-Skins UNDER 52 - Eagles D was outstanding this weekend completely shutting down the Pack...look for them to carry that through in the home opener against a weak Skins team...
Denver+3 - I believe the Raiders are the worst team in the league...An emotional road win last week should carry over for the Broncos..I don't see Oakland being able to score much on the road in Mile High...
Seattle-Cards Under 55.5 - Cards D looked decent in the parts of the game I saw on Monday night...i think seattle will try to run alot in this game...
Eagles-Skins UNDER 52 - Eagles D was outstanding this weekend completely shutting down the Pack...look for them to carry that through in the home opener against a weak Skins team...
Denver+3 - I believe the Raiders are the worst team in the league...An emotional road win last week should carry over for the Broncos..I don't see Oakland being able to score much on the road in Mile High...
Seattle-Cards Under 55.5 - Cards D looked decent in the parts of the game I saw on Monday night...i think seattle will try to run alot in this game...
dl36 - love the Bears game this week - every which way. Will be teasing this game up, the total down, playing the Bears -12, etc.
That said, here's what I like (love) with 13 pts.
Bears +1 - - There is NO way the Chiefs will go into Soldier Field and win. Soldier is becoming a very difficult place for opposing teams to play, and being the home opener and coming off a tough loss, the Bears will come out looking for a blowout. The Chiefs scored 3 points vs. Houston - you think they'r gonna come put up 14+ on the Bears? Probably not. I see the Bears D controlling the game and consistently giving Rexxy and the offense chances from the 50 yd line and in.
Bears OVER 21 Bears will get theirs, like I said they'll be starting near the 50 all game. I see the Bears winning this game 31-6
Also, I will be playing some sort of teaser with:
USC -10 (-4, -3, +3) - - Plain and simple, I don't think USC is going to lose a game all year. I think Nebraska may be able to keep it close early, but with the Trojans coming off a bye week I think they should pull away late and just hammer the Huskers.
IOWA -17.4 (-11.5, -10.5, -4.5) - - Iowa State is terrible. The end.
BENGALS -7 (-1, pk, +6) - - Bengals didn't have too much trouble with the Ravens defense. The Steelers torched the Browns last week, in Cleveland. Who is the Browns QB this week? I see a unfocused Browns team showing up Sunday, and a hungry Bengals team looking to jump out to 2-0.
dl36 - love the Bears game this week - every which way. Will be teasing this game up, the total down, playing the Bears -12, etc.
That said, here's what I like (love) with 13 pts.
Bears +1 - - There is NO way the Chiefs will go into Soldier Field and win. Soldier is becoming a very difficult place for opposing teams to play, and being the home opener and coming off a tough loss, the Bears will come out looking for a blowout. The Chiefs scored 3 points vs. Houston - you think they'r gonna come put up 14+ on the Bears? Probably not. I see the Bears D controlling the game and consistently giving Rexxy and the offense chances from the 50 yd line and in.
Bears OVER 21 Bears will get theirs, like I said they'll be starting near the 50 all game. I see the Bears winning this game 31-6
Also, I will be playing some sort of teaser with:
USC -10 (-4, -3, +3) - - Plain and simple, I don't think USC is going to lose a game all year. I think Nebraska may be able to keep it close early, but with the Trojans coming off a bye week I think they should pull away late and just hammer the Huskers.
IOWA -17.4 (-11.5, -10.5, -4.5) - - Iowa State is terrible. The end.
BENGALS -7 (-1, pk, +6) - - Bengals didn't have too much trouble with the Ravens defense. The Steelers torched the Browns last week, in Cleveland. Who is the Browns QB this week? I see a unfocused Browns team showing up Sunday, and a hungry Bengals team looking to jump out to 2-0.
I see what you are saying about MIA, I personally dont like the number on 17 and would look to take another pick if possible...
miskimike,
I like your unders and the under in the PHI game makes sense and I dont see WAS putting up points..I just hope PHI doesnt decide to...Recent history totals for his match up 3-27 =30 points @ PHI, 19-21=40 points @ WAS, in 2005...
I also see a SU with DEN in this game against OAK based on history and grudges...
SEA/ARZ under is another game to consider..I guess I worry about this one more then the PHI game in terms of offensive potential...
Ill,
I like CHI also, I think that the over might be decent....
I dont play college on teaser, I just dont see as much value there....
CIN is another game to consider as a straight up win, but I feel more comfortable teasing ti to over a TD if possible and perhaps this line is inflated with PIT loss and CIN win last week....
I am thinking with CHI and DEN as good SU winners, this might be a week to really look at taking the 3 team 10 point teaser instead....
I not necessarily that convinced with JAX and PIT which would be logical picks with the +10 points ATS.. But with these two picks as strong SU winners, taking a 3 teamer might reduce the chance of getting burnt...
I see what you are saying about MIA, I personally dont like the number on 17 and would look to take another pick if possible...
miskimike,
I like your unders and the under in the PHI game makes sense and I dont see WAS putting up points..I just hope PHI doesnt decide to...Recent history totals for his match up 3-27 =30 points @ PHI, 19-21=40 points @ WAS, in 2005...
I also see a SU with DEN in this game against OAK based on history and grudges...
SEA/ARZ under is another game to consider..I guess I worry about this one more then the PHI game in terms of offensive potential...
Ill,
I like CHI also, I think that the over might be decent....
I dont play college on teaser, I just dont see as much value there....
CIN is another game to consider as a straight up win, but I feel more comfortable teasing ti to over a TD if possible and perhaps this line is inflated with PIT loss and CIN win last week....
I am thinking with CHI and DEN as good SU winners, this might be a week to really look at taking the 3 team 10 point teaser instead....
I not necessarily that convinced with JAX and PIT which would be logical picks with the +10 points ATS.. But with these two picks as strong SU winners, taking a 3 teamer might reduce the chance of getting burnt...
DENVER............if culpepper plays he doesnt know the entire offense and that will hurt them....Denver is at home and they look to rebound from a so-so performance last week. Raiders really suck and the Broncos Defense is a lot better then DETRIOT.
Culpepper didnt play for a reason last week...I'm not sure what that reason might be but none the less Denver will win this game and you can get them at a steal on a teaser.................
DENVER............if culpepper plays he doesnt know the entire offense and that will hurt them....Denver is at home and they look to rebound from a so-so performance last week. Raiders really suck and the Broncos Defense is a lot better then DETRIOT.
Culpepper didnt play for a reason last week...I'm not sure what that reason might be but none the less Denver will win this game and you can get them at a steal on a teaser.................
Ill, I am thinking that a 3 teamer might be the right play this week.. I think DEN and CHI as SU winners are solid picks... so rather then playing 2 games on the 4 teamer, playing 3 games at +10 points makes more sense...
Part of the numbers I did recently showed that mathematically there is not a significant difference between the 4 team and 3 team and part of this season is being willing to play one or the other when appropriate..
doggie36,
Im with you on DEN..
luckyly,
I hear you on CHI,
CIN a the number to me lacks value as a divisional road dog, but I can see where you are comign from with them winning SU...
BUF played tough and at the +23 number getting 3 TD might be worth it if they can play another close game...
I got GB at +14 which is a poor number imo..
So this is what I got... 3 team 10 point teaser CHI -2.5 DEN pick
then picking trying to find a 3rd pick...
JAX -0.5 makes sense a SU win and coming back at home after a loss that was affected alot by a kicker injury...
PIT pick seems like a good pick with them at home against an inferior BUF team, I just hope that BUF isnt able to keep it close...
BAL pick seems logical but is circles right now....
Ill, I am thinking that a 3 teamer might be the right play this week.. I think DEN and CHI as SU winners are solid picks... so rather then playing 2 games on the 4 teamer, playing 3 games at +10 points makes more sense...
Part of the numbers I did recently showed that mathematically there is not a significant difference between the 4 team and 3 team and part of this season is being willing to play one or the other when appropriate..
doggie36,
Im with you on DEN..
luckyly,
I hear you on CHI,
CIN a the number to me lacks value as a divisional road dog, but I can see where you are comign from with them winning SU...
BUF played tough and at the +23 number getting 3 TD might be worth it if they can play another close game...
I got GB at +14 which is a poor number imo..
So this is what I got... 3 team 10 point teaser CHI -2.5 DEN pick
then picking trying to find a 3rd pick...
JAX -0.5 makes sense a SU win and coming back at home after a loss that was affected alot by a kicker injury...
PIT pick seems like a good pick with them at home against an inferior BUF team, I just hope that BUF isnt able to keep it close...
BAL pick seems logical but is circles right now....
i have jacksonville myself in a teaser.. i'm a little worried about this game but i just can't see the falcons going on the road with harrington and winning in jacksonville, especially since jacksonville lost last weekend and they should be fired up to get their first win at home.
that said, the best 3 team 10 pter i see on the board would be Bears -2, Broncos PK, and Bengals +3
Ravens PK would be my first alternate, then I'd go with the Jaguars
i have jacksonville myself in a teaser.. i'm a little worried about this game but i just can't see the falcons going on the road with harrington and winning in jacksonville, especially since jacksonville lost last weekend and they should be fired up to get their first win at home.
that said, the best 3 team 10 pter i see on the board would be Bears -2, Broncos PK, and Bengals +3
Ravens PK would be my first alternate, then I'd go with the Jaguars
I personally am a little scared with CIN, but perhaps getting points makes sense... This just seems like such a huge public pick as a road fav in a divisional game... I kinda agree with you with BAL over JAX, but I also like the angle of JAX coming out strong after a loss....
badlands...
What I have learned over time is that NFL teasers have been successful for me, perhaps in your experience you have seen differently.
gmitran,
I have betjam also and I do not use it for teaser because of the odds... I use bodog for my teasers that have the 3 team 10 point teaser odds at -110.... Ive heard 5dimes also has good teaser odds...
crovax,
3 team 12 pointers? where do you get those? I used to play 4 team 12 pointers through a local.... what are the odds on that?
So this is what I got... 3 team 10 point teaser CHI -2.5 DEN pick and considering CIN +6, BAL pick, JAX 0.5...
I personally am a little scared with CIN, but perhaps getting points makes sense... This just seems like such a huge public pick as a road fav in a divisional game... I kinda agree with you with BAL over JAX, but I also like the angle of JAX coming out strong after a loss....
badlands...
What I have learned over time is that NFL teasers have been successful for me, perhaps in your experience you have seen differently.
gmitran,
I have betjam also and I do not use it for teaser because of the odds... I use bodog for my teasers that have the 3 team 10 point teaser odds at -110.... Ive heard 5dimes also has good teaser odds...
crovax,
3 team 12 pointers? where do you get those? I used to play 4 team 12 pointers through a local.... what are the odds on that?
So this is what I got... 3 team 10 point teaser CHI -2.5 DEN pick and considering CIN +6, BAL pick, JAX 0.5...
Detroit +10, it's hard for me to picture the Lions getting blown out by the inefficient Vikes at home. You know Mike Martz is roaring to get his troops going
DEN pick: you can't go wrong with Shanahan at home against the team that fired him
GB +14: Packers defense is under-rated and Favre is good for a couple of scores. Too many injuries on Giants side
ATL +23: Bet on Jags when they are dogs and go against them when they are faves
Detroit +10, it's hard for me to picture the Lions getting blown out by the inefficient Vikes at home. You know Mike Martz is roaring to get his troops going
DEN pick: you can't go wrong with Shanahan at home against the team that fired him
GB +14: Packers defense is under-rated and Favre is good for a couple of scores. Too many injuries on Giants side
ATL +23: Bet on Jags when they are dogs and go against them when they are faves
Thanks for the advice on JAX... I agree with you on that and will consider that in my 3 team 10 point teaser... I like DEN at home with the grudge factor of shanahan..
After some consultation with Lippsman about the three teamer I am deciding to go with PIT....BAL is circled on bodog right now and not available to tease... My other thought was to play CIN, but I am considering playing them on a 2nd teaser for less money....
Thanks for the advice on JAX... I agree with you on that and will consider that in my 3 team 10 point teaser... I like DEN at home with the grudge factor of shanahan..
After some consultation with Lippsman about the three teamer I am deciding to go with PIT....BAL is circled on bodog right now and not available to tease... My other thought was to play CIN, but I am considering playing them on a 2nd teaser for less money....
basically with you on all picks.... but I think that +3 on the teaser does not give me much of an advantage of pick... especially with tie being loss... That is why I am going with a 3 teamer this week to avoid the loss, hopefully all picks will hit...
Berserker,
With you on PIT, GL on your other picks... I am little scared on the DAL myself....
basically with you on all picks.... but I think that +3 on the teaser does not give me much of an advantage of pick... especially with tie being loss... That is why I am going with a 3 teamer this week to avoid the loss, hopefully all picks will hit...
Berserker,
With you on PIT, GL on your other picks... I am little scared on the DAL myself....
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