week 2

season-to-date 4-4

Sucky kind of week 1.....some observations......

Philly's new offense isn't much,...they will struggle all season, after losing their very good offensive line coach, I have my doubts whether besides Hurts running the ball out of the pocket that they'll generate anything on the ground.  Depending on rookie receivers to make an air game happen is a dangerous assumption in the NFL.   I don't think they'll win the division.

I said in my last weeks' thread that Cooper Rush was as good as Tua....WRONG!...no pocket presence and could not throw an accurate ball down the field....they could've covered by just handing the ball off 50 times.

The Giants looked very good,...we'll see how their secondary holds up against the Rams....they are still 3rd favorites to win the division...I might take them.

Packers took a game they had, and gift wrapped it to the Vikings.

49ers could win their division unless their whole team gets injured again this year.....they must have a very questionable training/therapy  staff for everyone to be injured year after year.

The Colts' defense is gonna be a problem the whole season.

The Seahawks will be an UNDER team the whole season.

Most surprising team?....the Cardinals were VERY impressive.....oughta be fascinating to see them attempt to take down the champs at home next week.

a)  Week 2 home favorites that will be underdogs their next two games have gone 26-51 ATS....VERSUS Broncos, Cowboys, Patriots, Chargers

b)  Week 2 home favorites whose present opponent will be favorites their next two games have gone 31-54 ATS.....VERSUS Rams, Bills, Texans, Ravens

Play:

1)  Packers -4......do I trust Geno and the Jets to put two straight good games together?...I am paying to say he won't.  Obviously if the Pack decides to give the ball away again this bet loses.

c)  An away favorite who was a playoff team from last season who lost their first game, playing a team that did not make the playoffs off a win....5-0-1 ATS (+18.9), 6-0 straight up (+18.8).....ON Packers

Query text....week=2 and AF and t:wins-o:wins=-1 and tpS(playoffs)>0

d)  Away divisional games week 2 by division.....

  1)  NFC East 24-7 ATS.....though when both teams are off a loss it has only been 6-4 ATS....ON Commanders

  2)  AFC West 21-8-1 ATS....when the visiting divisional rival has equal or greater wins on the season to their present opponent this has been 18-4-1 ATS.....ON Raiders

  3)  NFC Central/North 9-28-1 ATS....though in this situation the Vikings have covered 2 out of 3 with the Bears.

e)  A week 2 home favorite of less than 8 points off a loss who were outyarded in their last game....62-116-7 ATS (-2.7), 95-89 straight up (+1.4)....VERSUS Patriots, Chargers, Cowboys, Texans, Rams.....if these teams have equal wins to their present opponent, this moves to 30-76 ATS....VERSUS Cowboys

Query text....p:TY < po:TY and HF and line >-8 and week < 4

f)  week 2 home favorites off of an away dog loss where they had at least 3 turnovers....27-42-2 ATS....VERSUS Bucs, Patriots

Plays:

1)  Packers -4

Adding.....

2)  Raiders +7.....week 2 away AFC West divisional rivals tend to out-perform expectations.

Adding:

3)  Chiefs -6', -114

Adding:

4)  Giants +7

______________

3)  Chiefs -6'

2)  Raiders +7

1)  Packers -4

5)  Commanders +4

Good luck Indigo.  

Looks pretty solid. As a Packer fan, I think they are very capable to losing outright anytime they face an unheralded team, see Browns last year and damn near everybody else.

I have just found a 55-26-1  ATS angle on the Colts,.....basically playing an away dog off a home dog loss, which is 22-6 ATS after 2015.

The Chiefs do fall into a long-term angle that covers over 63% of the time.

So, we face a quandary,....the Chiefs looked like a Super Bowl team versus the Broncos, and Lamar and company ran all over the Colts.  I may back out of the Chiefs play.

The query text for the angle is listed below.

query text.........week=2 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and line<8 and 7>tpS(W)-opS(W) >-7 and p:HL and AD

The strongest indicators this week are on the Packers and the Commanders/Redskins.

Plays:

1)  Packers -3'

2)  Commanders +3', -105

3)  Raiders +7

4)  Giants +7

5)  Chiefs -6'

There are also indicators on the Titans and the Panthers.

g)  An away favorite that will be an underdog their next two games.....97-154-7 ATS (-4.0), 38.6%, 124-133 straight up (-0.7)....VERSUS Eagles

This has been 20-41 ATS in September, 5-12 ATS in week 3.

Query text.....AF and n:D and nn:D and week < 15