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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Vegas thinks Falcons are a top team??

    nygjmap
    lancer89074
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    nygjmap
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 10:29 AM ET #1

    What kind of line is -2.5 Cardinals, arguably the best Defense in the league....Its begging for Cards money, So I gave it to them! Cards are the mucb better team here, what am I not seeing?
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    What kind of line is -2.5 Cardinals, arguably the best Defense in the league....Its begging for Cards money, So I gave it to them! Cards are the mucb better team here, what am I not seeing?
     
    lancer89074
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 10:53 AM ET #2

    The books will get hammered with Arizona money...now either the books are giving away money to get in the holiday spirit or else they know that Atlanta will win this game. 

    The line is doing what they want it to do I.E. it generates a huge influx of Arizona money. 

    There is an old saying that when you sit down to play poker and you don't know who the sucker is...it's you. 
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    The books will get hammered with Arizona money...now either the books are giving away money to get in the holiday spirit or else they know that Atlanta will win this game. 

    The line is doing what they want it to do I.E. it generates a huge influx of Arizona money. 

    There is an old saying that when you sit down to play poker and you don't know who the sucker is...it's you. 
     
    nygjmap
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 11:01 AM ET #3

    Lol thats what I was looking at, Vegas doesn't set traps but they do try to get money on both sides, the fact AZ is barely favored means they believe this is the Falcons game
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    Lol thats what I was looking at, Vegas doesn't set traps but they do try to get money on both sides, the fact AZ is barely favored means they believe this is the Falcons game
     
    bk1374
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 11:45 AM ET #4

    No, Vegas does NOT think they are a 'top team', which is why at home they are getting points.  


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    No, Vegas does NOT think they are a 'top team', which is why at home they are getting points.  


     
    lancer89074
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 2:14 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by nygjmap:

    Lol thats what I was looking at, Vegas doesn't set traps but they do try to get money on both sides, the fact AZ is barely favored means they believe this is the Falcons game

    Sometimes they want money on one side and want the whole pie too. Never underestimate the other guy's greed. Those Hoover vacuum cleaners are getting filled up with Arizona money. After last Sunday and the clock mismanagement gifting the Browns with a win, who feels comfortable betting Atlanta? 

    Atlanta is the play IMO.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nygjmap:

    Lol thats what I was looking at, Vegas doesn't set traps but they do try to get money on both sides, the fact AZ is barely favored means they believe this is the Falcons game

    Sometimes they want money on one side and want the whole pie too. Never underestimate the other guy's greed. Those Hoover vacuum cleaners are getting filled up with Arizona money. After last Sunday and the clock mismanagement gifting the Browns with a win, who feels comfortable betting Atlanta? 

    Atlanta is the play IMO.
     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 2:45 PM ET #6

    I think they see Zona for who they are, a much more lucky team than good.

    They get out-played in many meaningful areas, and some by fairly big amounts.

    Zona is not as good as their record would indicate.
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    I think they see Zona for who they are, a much more lucky team than good.

    They get out-played in many meaningful areas, and some by fairly big amounts.

    Zona is not as good as their record would indicate.
     
    mybestbet
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2014 - 10:15 PM ET #7

    Zona is a solid football team. Falcons win this one though.
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    Zona is a solid football team. Falcons win this one though.
     
    worthashot
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 10:11 AM ET #8

    With the over emphasis on the passing game these days, the QB match up here does not favor Arz.  Drew Stanton has more career ints than TDs and he is going up against the famed "Matty Ice."
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    With the over emphasis on the passing game these days, the QB match up here does not favor Arz.  Drew Stanton has more career ints than TDs and he is going up against the famed "Matty Ice."
     
    nygjmap
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 10:21 AM ET #9

    It looks like ATL is the play, the line just went down again and it opened at a pick. Yet, I cant help but think the Cards get their run game finally goin against a terrible Run D and dominate with their Number 1 ranked defense, and Stanton isn't terrible.

    We'll see if the Falcons are the real deal Sunday!
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    It looks like ATL is the play, the line just went down again and it opened at a pick. Yet, I cant help but think the Cards get their run game finally goin against a terrible Run D and dominate with their Number 1 ranked defense, and Stanton isn't terrible.

    We'll see if the Falcons are the real deal Sunday!
     
    Mcmanus
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 10:34 AM ET #10

    On average the Cardinals have given up 18 more yards then they gain per game so I would say they are not as good as their record.
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    On average the Cardinals have given up 18 more yards then they gain per game so I would say they are not as good as their record.
     
    woodsywins1616
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 12:50 PM ET #11

     I was thinking the same thing.  Vegas is in the Christmas spirit practically gift wrapping money for anyone betting on Ari.  I do not understand how a 4-7 team would beat a 9-2 team and the best record in the NFL unless this game is fixed.  I don't care if Atl is at home and Matty Ice is the QB, there is no way they should win this week. BTW Matty Ice has thrown 9 picks in the last 3 games against ARI.  ARI defence will likely outscore Atl if this game is not fixed.  The big caveat here is like was mentioned above Vegas does not like to give away money and this is what worries me that the fix is in.  I am likely going to go like a lamb to the slaughter but I will be backing Ari, screw you fixed Vegas.
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     I was thinking the same thing.  Vegas is in the Christmas spirit practically gift wrapping money for anyone betting on Ari.  I do not understand how a 4-7 team would beat a 9-2 team and the best record in the NFL unless this game is fixed.  I don't care if Atl is at home and Matty Ice is the QB, there is no way they should win this week. BTW Matty Ice has thrown 9 picks in the last 3 games against ARI.  ARI defence will likely outscore Atl if this game is not fixed.  The big caveat here is like was mentioned above Vegas does not like to give away money and this is what worries me that the fix is in.  I am likely going to go like a lamb to the slaughter but I will be backing Ari, screw you fixed Vegas.
     
    saigonbynight
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 1:06 PM ET #12

    Zona is a different team on the road, they got whipped by Seahawks and no #11
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    Zona is a different team on the road, they got whipped by Seahawks and no #11
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 1:09 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

    The books will get hammered with Arizona money...now either the books are giving away money to get in the holiday spirit or else they know that Atlanta will win this game. 

    The line is doing what they want it to do I.E. it generates a huge influx of Arizona money. 

    There is an old saying that when you sit down to play poker and you don't know who the sucker is...it's you. 

    BINGO! ..... I like that way you think Lancer
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

    The books will get hammered with Arizona money...now either the books are giving away money to get in the holiday spirit or else they know that Atlanta will win this game. 

    The line is doing what they want it to do I.E. it generates a huge influx of Arizona money. 

    There is an old saying that when you sit down to play poker and you don't know who the sucker is...it's you. 

    BINGO! ..... I like that way you think Lancer
     
    BainMasters
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 2:49 PM ET #14

    To piggyback on some others comments, I looked at this game closely b/c it screamed take ARI off the tough divisional loss facing one of the leagues worst ranked defenses. There are several things that made me run away.

    Per Pro Football Focus grades: ARI has a bottom 5 graded offense. Literally ranked #27 out of 32. The offense is horrible, and Stanton is NOT an NFL starter. Defensively as spectacularly as they have played at times they have graded only a few pts above average on the season. 

    No matter how bad ATL is defensively and they are bad; they CAN NOT go into the tank on the season b/c they are tied for 1st in the division! They can still win a HOME PLAYOFF game. 

    I think Vegas is inviting ARI money b/c they suspect ATL will use everything they can to win this game and further separate within the division. 

    In 4/5 games PFF has graded Stanton negatively. He is actually worse when he isn't blitzed. What that means is, he doesn't read defensive coverages well. ATL will likely mix up coverages, using run blitzes, and playing coverage behind it. We have seen 2 things the last few weeks.

    Stanton will risk the ball and likely throw an int.

    ATL Desmond trufant is #6 graded corner in the league for the season and #10 the last 4 weeks. He is a ball hawk and can make teams pay for errant throws.

    IMHO if ATL can score first, say 7-0, or 10-0 somehow someway ARI is unlikely to win the game as they cannot play from behind offensively.
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    To piggyback on some others comments, I looked at this game closely b/c it screamed take ARI off the tough divisional loss facing one of the leagues worst ranked defenses. There are several things that made me run away.

    Per Pro Football Focus grades: ARI has a bottom 5 graded offense. Literally ranked #27 out of 32. The offense is horrible, and Stanton is NOT an NFL starter. Defensively as spectacularly as they have played at times they have graded only a few pts above average on the season. 

    No matter how bad ATL is defensively and they are bad; they CAN NOT go into the tank on the season b/c they are tied for 1st in the division! They can still win a HOME PLAYOFF game. 

    I think Vegas is inviting ARI money b/c they suspect ATL will use everything they can to win this game and further separate within the division. 

    In 4/5 games PFF has graded Stanton negatively. He is actually worse when he isn't blitzed. What that means is, he doesn't read defensive coverages well. ATL will likely mix up coverages, using run blitzes, and playing coverage behind it. We have seen 2 things the last few weeks.

    Stanton will risk the ball and likely throw an int.

    ATL Desmond trufant is #6 graded corner in the league for the season and #10 the last 4 weeks. He is a ball hawk and can make teams pay for errant throws.

    IMHO if ATL can score first, say 7-0, or 10-0 somehow someway ARI is unlikely to win the game as they cannot play from behind offensively.
     
    stickwithapick
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 3:17 PM ET #15

    ARI 2-4 ATS last 6 @ ATL

    ATL 5-0 SU last 5 @ home vs ARI

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    ARI 2-4 ATS last 6 @ ATL

    ATL 5-0 SU last 5 @ home vs ARI

     
    nygjmap
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 4:45 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by stickwithapick:

    ARI 2-4 ATS last 6 @ ATL
    ATL 5-0 SU last 5 @ home vs ARI


    Good stats, and as much as Vegas is begging us to take the Cards I think I still might! I know, I know, the line is screaming trap game and all but I believe defense wins games and Arians is a very good coach.

    We may just be reading too much into this, there's a reason the Falcons are 4-7 with one of the softest schedules in the league.
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    Quote Originally Posted by stickwithapick:

    ARI 2-4 ATS last 6 @ ATL
    ATL 5-0 SU last 5 @ home vs ARI


    Good stats, and as much as Vegas is begging us to take the Cards I think I still might! I know, I know, the line is screaming trap game and all but I believe defense wins games and Arians is a very good coach.

    We may just be reading too much into this, there's a reason the Falcons are 4-7 with one of the softest schedules in the league.
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 6:41 PM ET #17

    All true but, the coaching matchup is a complete joke. Arians is Einstein compared to Smith (that alone should make any Falcon backer sick to his stomach). That's why I could never back the Falcons here. This is a no play for me.
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    All true but, the coaching matchup is a complete joke. Arians is Einstein compared to Smith (that alone should make any Falcon backer sick to his stomach). That's why I could never back the Falcons here. This is a no play for me.
     
     
    glyde69
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2014 - 10:44 PM ET #18

    Didn't read any replies so sorry if I'm repeating other posts.

    Stanton on the road isn't very trustworthy. I believe Fitz is out. While Atlanta isn't a very good team, they are right in the mix to take the South and that dome will be rocking in a playoff atmosphere and mixed with an inexperienced QB....I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons lay down the law.

    GL
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    Didn't read any replies so sorry if I'm repeating other posts.

    Stanton on the road isn't very trustworthy. I believe Fitz is out. While Atlanta isn't a very good team, they are right in the mix to take the South and that dome will be rocking in a playoff atmosphere and mixed with an inexperienced QB....I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons lay down the law.

    GL
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