Uncle Ernie's NFL 2018 Week 4

What I am going to start doing is posting my Dynamo ratings, Pass Defense ratings, and Delta ratings. Then on Weds night to Thurs afternoon, I will do the line filtering of 7 points or more. Now the Dynamo ratings are a combination of how many points a team scores and their ball control efficiency factor. These are potential ratings as compared to power ratings. For example, the Dolphins get an "A" grade in the Dynamo metric, but their offense is not as good as the Chiefs, Rams, or Saints. This is how dynamic the Dolphins have been against their opponents this season with each weekly game given a relative merit value for that week. Like in week 2, if a team's dynamic rating for that game is sixth for that week, the team gets 7 merits. Then I add up their merits for week 1, 2, and 3. Then I sort that to highest merit value. Defensive Passer Rating and/or the Delta factor will be supporting whether to go with or against team starting with their Dynamo merit value. For example, the Saints have a high Dynamo merit value, but a low Defensive Passer rating, so there will be times when it is a good time to take the Saints in a game and good times to fade them in a particular contest.

Grade A

Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Dolphins

Grade B+

Bucs, Panthers, Chargers, Redskins

Grade B-

Bengals, Bears, Ravens, Raiders

Grade C+

Niners, Steelers, Falcons, Jets

Grade C-

Titans, Jags, Colts, Giants

Grade D+

Lions, Seahawks, Packers, Browns

Grade D-

Eagles, Texans, Viks, Pats

Grade F

Bills, Broncos, Cowboys, Cards

Congratulations Browns, you are not the worst team in football.

Defensive Passer Rating

Grade A

Seahawks, Jets, Redskins, Jags

Grade B+

Dolphins, Bears, Ravens, Browns

Grade B-

Lions, Vikings, Rams, Panthers

Grade C+

Falcons, Steelers, Eagles, Bengals

Grade C-

Titans, Colts, Pats, Giants

Grade D+

Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Packers

Grade D-

Cards, Chargers, Bills, Niners

Grade F

Chiefs, Bucs, Texans, Saints

In week 3 when a team was in the top 12 of dynamo and defensive passer rating, tailing them went 3-1.

Fading a team in the bottom 12 of dynamo and defensive passer rating went 3-1.

So teams to put a lean on are Redskins, Dolphins, Bears, Ravens, and Panthers.

Teams to fade are Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Cards, Bills, and Texans.

The concept of tailing good performing teams and fading ones is a good one, but watch it fall apart this week. This is for the long run. I was busy with other things and forgot to do this for last week.

Now I just have to muddy the waters with my delta ratings.

Great work! Do you do bet all your leans? Or do you post a final card with your 2-5 best?

thanks in advance

@Belmont3b I usually take my leans and most of the time make them official plays. There are two major things I am looking at. One is how well teams do when they are in the both the top 12 or bottom 12 of dynamo and defensive passer rating. I also took out the bye teams for this week. The Bills and Packers are playing each other and the Redskins and Panthers are on byes, so I can eliminate those teams from the Matchplay Method.

So for the Matchplay picks, this week they are

Dolphins (+6.5)

Bears (-3)

Ravens (+3)

Lions (+3)

Chiefs (-5)

Seattle (-3)

Colts (-1.5)

Now the Matchplay picks are an experiment for this season, just to see how things go.

At the moment, I am filtering out games where the line is 7 or more to build my initial card.

There are so many games that I don't like betting either way this week. When that happens I usually do very poor or very good.

This is usually one of my starting points where I filter out games with the line is 7 or more. This lowers my money risk and analysis time. Also, I am cutting down on back door covers from the other team. In addition the line is off from the result a significant amount of the time. This is my initial card. Many of these games I don't care for betting wise.

Lions (-3) Cowboys

Texans (-1.5) Colts

Bucs (-3) Bears

Bengals (-5) Falcons

Eagles (+4) Titans

Dolphins (-6.5) Pats

Seahawks (+3) Cards

Browns (-2.5) Raiders

Saints (+3.5) Giants

Ravens (-3) Steelers

Chiefs (+5) Broncos

I will provide my initial thoughts on a couple of games at a time.

I think the Lions and Cowboys is a poor betting choice on either side.

In the Texans Colts contest, I lean towards the Colts. I have not examined the performance numbers for this game, but I would bet on the Colts if I had to place a bet. For the time being I would fade the Texans.

Thanks beermugs. I do want to be known as a credible source to make betting decisions.

I am going to skip analysis of the Bucs and Bears game with the qb situation they have. And we can see Fitzmagic going zig zag.

Betting wise I want Winston to play and then fade the Bucs. I think they are a better team with Fitzgerald.

The Bengals Falcons makes me pause.

The Bengals have a dynamo of B- and a defensive passer rating of C+.

The Falcons have a dynamo of C+ and a defensive passer rating of C+.

As a hypothesis, I would expect the Bengals dynamo rating to go down on the road, and the Falcons dynamo rating to go up at home.

The def passer rating of C+ does not give me an edge betting decision wise.

Well I was going to make a longer post, but I have got this Foot Locker ad over most of my comment window...

I am going to skip the Bengals Falcons pick. I am trying to force myself to make a play, and I want things to flow instead of be forced. If I have time, I am going to doublecheck some things.

I am going to wait until the Eagles start playing better. They have to show me something first. They barely beat the Falcons and Colts and lost to the Bucs.

After looking over the rest of the games, for my official picks

I am going for

Saints (-3.5) This is min bet play because of the Saints pass defense.

Ravens (+3) This is a slight lean on the Ravens and a slight fade on the Steelers.

Chiefs (-5) Chiefs are hot on offense at the moment, but have a poor defense like the Saints. The Broncos do not have much going for them.

I do not feel any of these plays are strong bets, but I flat bet at the moment, which works better than giving my picks different unit value.

the Matchplay Method. So for the Matchplay picks, this week they are Dolphins (+6.5) Bears (-3) Ravens (+3) Lions (+3) Chiefs (-5) Seattle (-3) Colts (-1.5) Now the Matchplay picks are an experiment for this season, just to see how things go. At the moment, I am filtering out games where the line is 7 or more to build my initial card. There are so many games that I don't like betting either way this week. When that happens I usually do very poor or very good.[/Quote]

thanks for the info!!!

I was about to do my delta ratings for this week because I think my delta ratings are clever. But one of my betting method concepts is avoid trying to outsmart yourself. Delta ratings are based on the thought football is a game fought in the trenches and the yard per play stat bears that out. Then you examine the difference (delta) between offensive and defensive stats. My experimental formula of delta is (points)/(10 - yards per play). Then you do the difference and then rank the difference.

But instead of looking at delta, I started looking at pywins, which is (points for ^2.37)/(points for^2.37 + points against^2.37).

I did that for each week and gave a merit value for that week. Then added to get the total merit value.

PYWINS Season To Date

Grade A

Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens

Grade B+

Panthers, Jags, Titans, Bears

Grade B-

Bengals, Eagles, Redskins, Bucs

Grade C+

Saints, Seahawks, Browns, Lions

Grade C-

Vikings, Colts, Steelers, Jets

Grade D+

Falcons, Chargers, Packers, Broncos

Grade D-

Bills, Giants, Niners, Texans

Grade F

Cowboys, Pats, Raiders, Cards

I am considering going to best 2 out of 3 categories of dynamo (offense), defensive passer rating (defense), and pywins (overall).