🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

When I look at upcoming games where one team holds MASSIVE edges over their significantly weaker opponent, over the past 6 weeks my handicapping sheets revealed these results on teams I "circled" for su wins: Week 11: 7 - 1 su Week 12: 6 - 3 su Week 13: 10 - 1 su Week 14: 7 - 1 su Week 15: 9 - 1 su Week 16: 6 - 2 su

>>>>> = 45 - 9  su     ( 31 - 20 - 2 ats )

I subsequently used those indicators to make MOST of my su bet selections. My real bets went 44 - 14 in this 6 week time frame.

This week my handicapping sheets have the following "circled" as having MASSIVE edges over their weaker opponent towards a SU win:

WIN su   Chargers (already won Saturday)

WIN su   Bills

Failure   Colts

WIN su   Eagles

WIN su   Bucs

WIN su   Commandos

WIN su   Lions

>>>>> = 51 - 10  su   and    37 - 21 - 2 ATS!

@fubah2

 Not to shabby

@Trustme99

Good calls!

@Europa

 Yeah, he took a risk for sure when the game that matters most is next Sunday night.

As for the marquee matchup of the week next Sunday night, I may be leaning LIONS since they seem to have escaped injury (luckily!) and are getting a bit healthier....They'll be on HOME TURF, which is key, as the stadium will be packed (indoors)  Fans that night likely to play a roll for lions.

VIKES are 1 - 1 ON THE ROAD @ teams with at least 10 wins and 2 - 2 overall.

LIONS are 2 - 1 on HOMEFIELD vs teams with at least 10 wins and 4 - 1 overall.

*LIONS are +200 pt differential

*VIKES are  +122  pt differential

To achieve those pt diff stats which favor the LIONS:

LIONS have played 8 true road games

while VIKES have only played 7 true road games

and

VIKES have faced 6 teams with winning records.

but LIONS had to face 8 teams with winning records!

and

VIKES pt. differential ON THE ROAD is +35  (7 true road; facing only 3 winning teams)

LIONS pt. differential   at HOME   is  +99  (8 home; facing 5 winning teams!! )

Fair edge to LIONS.....Should be -4.5 favs!

Week 18:

LIONS  -147   *BB

LIONS -1 -135  *BB

WARNING!  I am on an extended HOT STREAK and regression looms!

Definitely for week 18!

@fubah2

 They could go all the way? Bob Costa? Smash Mouth Detroit Bad Ass Lions to the House.

All in.

G.L I'm with ya The Man the myth the legend.

@fubah2

 Copy paste thanks for the report you typed out impressive info my man.

TY!  BoL with your bets this week!

Class move!

ESPN -
FRISCO, Texas -- Ezekiel Elliott's return to the Dallas Cowboys is over with one game left to play.

The Cowboys made the move now to give Elliott, 29, a chance to join a playoff contender if he clears waivers.

"Out of respect and appreciation for Zeke and wanting to provide him with an opportunity to pursue any potential playoff participation possible, we are releasing him from the Cowboys roster today," Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones said in a statement. "As I have said many times previously, Zeke's impact as one of the greatest to ever play with the Star on their helmet will never change and is etched in our record books and history forever. We thank him, love him and wish him the absolute best."

Who wants mine?

* 

My 2024 weekly results:
----------------------------

Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1    (Loser: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:    5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:    9 - 8   (Losers: -105; +1.5-120; +17.5-250; +3-142; +3.5-150; -150; +3.5-180; -105)
Week 10:    6 - 4    (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)
Week 11:  16 - 6    (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:    8 - 1    (Loser: -7.5 -125)
Week 13:    7 - 4    (Losers: -118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:    5 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:    5 - 1    (Loser: -125 hedge bet) 

Week 16:    3 - 1    (Loser: +8.5 -152)

Week 17:    6 - 3    (Losers: *+3 -140; +0.5 -138; *+12.5 -175 hedge bet)

YTD:  104 - 42     [33 - 10  *Best Bets! ]

                                                                       HOT STREAK warning for regression still in effect

Might take BRONCOS at a lower spread, alt-line.....

RAVENS will win of course..... and they are quite capable of winning by 3 TDs......we all know this.

But will they?

I mean, once they get up HUGE in the game - with the playoffs next week - wouldn't they sit most of their starters and cost the 2nd half or at least the 4th Q -- thus leaving it open for a backdoor cover  which would be meaningless to them....

Saquan Barkley will sit for the EAGLES.

Gainwell expected to start in his place.

@fubah2

 So you finished the season +41 units roughly?

Wins vs losses is always the bottom line (along with win %) - not glorious claims of high "unit" counts despite the OP owning a mediocre W/L record.

However, if one prefers to view & compare ALL forum W/L records by the same equal standard (ie, scored at one unit only) then yes, all my juice losses subtracted from the number of wins would result around that mark, from my currrent 104 - 42 W/L count.

          BoL with your bets this weekend!

Lean to the Bungles

Helluva job buddy… the Duke 

Tonight, 

Steelers players (whole team, not just Russell Wilson!) not only want the win for seeding, not only want the win for their disappointed home fans who will be braving frigid conditions to support them one final time, but more importantly than those is THEY GOTTA TURN THIS THING BACK AROUND - and it has to happen tonight, no ifs, ands or buts...

And they have at least a 50/50 shot if not more...

They were 7 -  1 prior to this recent 3-game losing skid and playing WELL!

But look at WHO  they faced the past 3 games - and WHERE...

              @ Philly   13 - 3  [top tier team!] *Pickens out!

              @ Ravens 11 - 5  [top tier team!] *Pickens out!

              vs Chiefs  15 - 1  [top tier team!]

Steelers will NOT be playing a top tier team this time (not even close!) and will NOT be playing on the road either.

And they have PICKENS - their TOP WR - back, who had missed those recent 2 road losses.

Steelers will be AT HOME, with plenty of motivation, healthy! and facing a desperate but still mediocre 8 - 8 team who may be without their star RB and others!

Steelers are 5 - 1 on homefield.

Steelers faced this Bengals team December 01 in Cinicinnati:

KEY game stats:  Steelers out-gunned  Bungles by a whopping +145 yards and Steelers offense had a stellar 7.9 ypp against the Bengals D, while Joe Burrow et al only managed 6.6 ypp against the Steelers D - and that was WITH Chase Brown...

Steelers led by 17 points 4 mins into the 4thQ and coasted to a win

I have this game rated as EVEN. Which suggests there is line-value in my bet on the homies: Steelers +3 -125 @Bet365

HOT STREAK warning for imminent regression still in effect

 good writeup    so i think ill tag along on this one

 good writeup    so i think ill tag along on this one

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

good writeup    so i think ill tag along on this one

Thanks, Kelly! 

As for the bet, I hope you kept it reasonable and didn't go "Large" or some such, as my bets are still in "imminent regression" mode... I know I've been saying that for weeks and it hasn't happened yet but it gets more likely with each passing week

not large           tkx  and  gl  

GL  on your plays Hau'oli Makahiki Hou! @fubah2