Alright so I've been staring at these two games all week and I keep coming back to the same play. Gonna lay it out for you guys. First leg is Dallas getting 10.5 after the tease. Original line is 3, tease it up to double digits and suddenly you're in a really comfortable spot with a Cowboys team that's been playing out of their minds lately. I know I know... its the Cowboys and we've all been burned by them before. Trust me I get it. But something changed with this team after the trade deadline. They brought in Quinnen Williams and that defense went from historically bad to actually competent. Like they were getting gashed every single week early in the season and now theyre generating pressure and actually making stops. Dak has been unconscious the last three weeks. Beat Philly, beat the Chiefs on thanksgiving, the dude is slinging it. 3,261 yards on the year which is second in the league. 25 touchdowns, also second. And the Pickens/Lamb combo is absolutely cooking right now. Pickens has over 1,140 yards receiving and leads the entire NFL in tight window receiving yards. The guy makes ridiculous grabs look routine. Now here's where it gets interesting with Detroit. The Lions are banged up bad. Amon-Ra St. Brown has that ankle injury from thanksgiving and he didnt practice at all this week. Everything I'm reading says hes probably not playing or if he does hes gonna be limited. Sam LaPorta is done for the year with back surgery. Brock Wright their backup TE is out too. Kalif Raymond also out. So basically Jared Goff is throwing to Jameson Williams and a bunch of guys nobody's ever heard of. Against a Dallas secondary that's been trending up. On a short week where they couldn't even practice with their best player. The ATS numbers back this up too. Dallas is 4-1 against the spread as underdogs of 3 or more this year. They've been covering as dogs consistently. And Detroit is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus the Cowboys. The history is there. Getting nearly 11 points with the hottest offense in football right now feels like robbery honestly. --- Second leg is Tulane getting 9.5 after the tease. This one might be my favorite of the two. So North Texas has this ridiculous offense right. Drew Mestemaker leads the country in passing yards with 3,835. Caleb Hawkins leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 23. They score like 47 points a game and everyone's falling all over themselves talking about how great they are. But here's what nobody wants to talk about... the ONE time North Texas played a ranked team this year they got absolutely smoked. South Florida came into Denton back in October and dropped 63 on them. Sixty three points. The Mean Green turned it over 5 times and Mestemaker threw 3 picks after not throwing any in his first five games. The stadium emptied out in the third quarter it was so bad. Meanwhile Tulane has actually played real competition. They beat Northwestern. They beat Duke at home. They've been to the AAC title game four years in a row now. This North Texas team has literally never been to a conference championship game in program history. First time ever.
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