Patriots Easy Schedule
Why do we want to punish a team for being 14-3? Yes, they may have had a favorable schedule, 14 times they won, and 2 of their 3 loses were in the first two weeks. They won at Buffalo, lost a close one hosting them (covered 4.5) and beat the Ravens (knocking their QB out of the game). They were taking care of business, with 7 of the 14 wins by two scores or more.
Common opponents faced this year include: Pitt, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Carolina and Tennessee. Both were 5-1 against them. I don't like looking at this too closely, as every situation is different, but it's something.
Seahawks Defence is Elite
The Hawks didn't exactly have this "daunting" schedule to go through as they trash Back Up QBs in Zona, Minny and Indy this year. Throw in the AFC South Clowns and you have a solid statistical defence. This isn't the Legon of Boom, lol... Did you watch that defence?
Solid QBs who played them:
Purdy - 277 (W) / 127 (L) / 140 (L)
Mayfield - 379 (W)
Lawrence - 258 (L)
Stafford - 130 (W) / 457 (L) / 374 (L)
The good QBs they were going against were putting up massive yards and beating them as well. Besides the Jags above, those opposing defence's were very elementary compared to the Pats.
Patriots Got Lucky in Playoffs
Not enough to blame them for their schedule (which we saw as above, is closer to the Hawks then people are claiming) - People also want to say tge opposing teams they played in the playoffs "lost" the games - lol!
The Pats D held Herbert to 159 and their HBs to 30 yards - The weather was not a factor. The Pats D forced 4 INTs from Stroud, and their HBs to 37 yards - the weather was not a factor. The Broncos game was in a blizzard, but so it's tough to include stats from this, but the Pats out gained the Broncos on the ground 141 - 79... both boxes were stacked all game. This brings me down to my last Key, the QB play.
Darnold > Maye
One of the reasons the Pats beat the Broncos, was Maye didn't turn the ball over or make the big mistake. He plays within his means and takes the sack as opposed to the INT and makes the clutch scrambles when they appear. Darnold, is a pylon in the pocket, and I'm expecting the Pats to dial up the pressure in the middle (which they're good at). The quick game is going to be taken away from the solid corners on the Pats. There may be a shot play or two on the Pats, but that's fine, it's going to happen. Darnold will, eventually, make the mistakes he's been making his entire career. He threw the third most INTs this year - 14!!!
I want the more composed, less to prove, QB whose playing loose and confident. Wait for the Darnold mistake, the Pats are ready for this.
Final Thoughts - Pats No Love
Their team must be so sick of hearing about how good the Hawks are on both sides of the ball. The Offence is going to play within their game, don't make mistakes and wait for a "slightly above average" defence to make mistakes and miss some tackles. The defence is going to want to wax Darnold and stuff this run game. Gonzalaz is very important to taking away the short game, and the rest are going to rally... expect 11 hats on the ball every play. Maye makes a couple clutch runs and the Pats win, but I'm taking the points.
Patriots +4.5 -108 FanDuel
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