***** Smitty's Conference Championship Plays *****

@asmth14

 When will you be sharing your play? 

Damn, you are on a terrible losing streak and you picked Seattle ML?  (Ooops, that was vs the Rams and not the Patriots)

That sucks for my bet.  (ignore)

Just make the winning pick for the Super Bowl please.

I'm still hitting almost 2/3 of wagers over entire postseason [62%] including all plays posted & unposted so one or two games is not a make or break. Super bowl is make or break for me regardless because I always go a bit bigger.

But yes, I'll be posting. Best of luck this weekend everyone.

I have a write-up set to go but want to monitor the late movement when public money arrives which will be Tomorrow to early sunday

The general public does not tie up their money for a week or two leading to the big game so you've gotta keep in mind the action and storylines headed into the game need to be taken with a grain of salt. I don't put any stock into who "Mattress Mack" picks or the symbolism of the image that went viral a week ago in which Maye & Sam Darnold were at the front ( Drake Maye specifically being at the front ) . There are going to be a lot of conspiracy theories floating leading up to kickoff as there always are, but keep in mind over 60% of money on the super bowl are casual fans who bet on " over" props as a source of entertainment... hence if an over were to hit here, you either want to be thinking outside the box in terms of who will reap the benefits, go for props that maybe are less popular than a simple " Over" on passing / rush/ recieving yds or stick to betting spread .  The " novelty " props are a total coin flip and present no edge. Still digging but I'll be back early Sunday.

GL, good to see you around again smitty. I always appreciate your insights. I'm personally on Seahawks -4.5, waiting on the weekend action to determine if I should add more or hedge and go the other side 

-Long time lurker