REGRESSION PLAYS WEEK 1.................NFL 2026

Hey people it's  been a long wait but the NFL is finally back ..........

I'll have my regression indicators as well as some new info using the magic of PTS Per Plays Differential. 

Close Wins mismatches ........

We back the top 2.

KC by 17 over Denver .... WOW, got to be the largest I've ever seen

Zona over Chargers by 10

Honorable mention ......

Wash over Philly by 7

Gmen over Boys by 7

Expected Wins ...........

KC over Denver by 6.5

Zona over Chargers by 4.1

Honorable  mention .....

Gmen over Boys by 3.3

Wash over Philly by 2.2

Rams over 9ers by 2.2

Year over Year Improvements...........

Kc by 13 over Denver , once again pretty huge

Browns over Jags by 7

Lions over Saints by 7

Honorable Mention ........

Seattle by 6 over Pats

Zona by 5 over Chargers.

We back each area so that means we have 3 plays on KC, 2 plays on Zona and 1 play each on Browns and Lions. 

Now this method has not worked well past 2 to 3 years.

I suspect now that these indicators are becoming well known as I see the mainstream media on TV and online taking about them they may not be as useful.

This will be a make or break year, another not so good year and I wint take action on these in future years 

The method does have a history of bouncing back off poor performance so we'll  see how it goes.

But the past 2 to 3 years are the worst the method as done by a good amount over that same time period.

Rams look like the SB favs, no regression indicators against the Rams. Zero, not a 1.

Seattle no regression either.

Pats show big regression in 1 indicator and some regression each of the other i dicators.

Denver, big regression in 2 of the 3 indicators and I will have additional info on Drnver using pts per plays diff. 

9ers show regression across all 3 indicators.

Bears regression across all 3 indicators.

Jags show big regression in 1 indicator with small regression in the other 2 but not so bad in those 2.

Giants, Zona both show big regression to improve. 

Colts show some decent regression to improve. 

Philly had 8 close wins of 12 close games. Show some good regression but not in the other indicators. 

Interesting the Eagles are the only team I have seen that actually repeats close wins. Maybe the tush push was the difference  maker 

With only 2 teams 8 close wins or better, Eagles being 1 and Denver with a monstrous 11 close wins in only 13 close games.

Think about that, 13 of 17 games were close 1 score games, not what strong teams are made of.

Repeating such a great close wins record will be highly, highly unlikely.

In 2024 KC had 11 close wins in 2025 they had 1, some was Mahomes injury but not all of it.

Wash had 8 close wins in 2024 then in 2025 they had 2.

Last Season KC was my favorite team to regress along with Wash and the Vikings all 3 did big time.

This season Denver will be my favorite team to regress, possibly big time regression could very well be coming for this team.

14-3 last year with books opening their win total at 9. Pricing in a 5 game regression. Sounds reasonable to me. 

Pats had a 10 game improvement  from the year before, Jags a 9 game improvement. 

I talked about this last season, teams with 7 or more game improvements have a history of big declines the next year.

No teams has ever produced a better record the following  year with only 1 team I think it was 1 team, Colts with A. Luck did produce the same record which was 11 wins, producing the same record the following year.

Last year that was Wash with a 8 game improvement  in 2024 only to decline by 7 games in 2025.

Vikings also improved by 7 games in 2024 only to win 5 fewer  games in 2025.

I would look for both Pats and Jags to decline in wins by a decent amount 4 to 6 games or more is very possible. 

Hold tight I'll  have alot more coming up........