I find 3 things can affect a football game where you have to re-think your method of evaluation: 1. Qb Change 2. Coaching change 3. Change of venue. Like last years SB, this game is being played on one of the participants home field (Rams), there are not any changes to the coaches nor Qbs that I’m aware of so we can use regular season and playoff data to do an apples to apples comparison. If it was a neutral field – you would want to do an evaluation compared to other neutral field games. Same reason when looking at College Football I look at Bowl season games separately from Regular season games.
Let's look at some numbers:
49 Cincy 23 8 8 26 9 21 -4 LAR 25 5 5 21 3 11
Rams open up as a 4 pt fav, currently the same. Cincy is better in in Off. Rushing rank at 23 vs 25. The Rams are better in Passing rank at 5 vs 8; Def. rushing rank at 5 vs 8; Def Passing rank at 21 vs 26; Sagarin rank at 3 vs 9 and schedule strength at 11 vs 21.
The reason I like the Rams is not because they are better in 5 of the 6 categories - I wish it worked that way - it doesn't.
There have been 4 previous games since I have been collecting the data (over 15 years) - where the away team was only better in Off. Rushing, and the opening line on the game was -4 for the home team.
What happened in those previous 4 games - in 3 of the games the away team covered and even won out right in one of those games. The 4th game the home team favorite covered. So why the Love for the Rams – when you peel the onion back further it has to do with the schedule strength and ranks of the teams for this particular situation. When you have a wide disparity among Sagarin Sched. Strength 21 vs 11 in this situation the data shows the home team often covers these situations when you have a 1/5 situation and the 1 is Rushing Off. for the away team.
There are patterns in the data and that’s worked well for me over the last 15 years. I’m taking the Rams – 4.
I find 3 things can affect a football game where you have to re-think your method of evaluation: 1. Qb Change 2. Coaching change 3. Change of venue. Like last years SB, this game is being played on one of the participants home field (Rams), there are not any changes to the coaches nor Qbs that I’m aware of so we can use regular season and playoff data to do an apples to apples comparison. If it was a neutral field – you would want to do an evaluation compared to other neutral field games. Same reason when looking at College Football I look at Bowl season games separately from Regular season games.
Let's look at some numbers:
49 Cincy 23 8 8 26 9 21 -4 LAR 25 5 5 21 3 11
Rams open up as a 4 pt fav, currently the same. Cincy is better in in Off. Rushing rank at 23 vs 25. The Rams are better in Passing rank at 5 vs 8; Def. rushing rank at 5 vs 8; Def Passing rank at 21 vs 26; Sagarin rank at 3 vs 9 and schedule strength at 11 vs 21.
The reason I like the Rams is not because they are better in 5 of the 6 categories - I wish it worked that way - it doesn't.
There have been 4 previous games since I have been collecting the data (over 15 years) - where the away team was only better in Off. Rushing, and the opening line on the game was -4 for the home team.
What happened in those previous 4 games - in 3 of the games the away team covered and even won out right in one of those games. The 4th game the home team favorite covered. So why the Love for the Rams – when you peel the onion back further it has to do with the schedule strength and ranks of the teams for this particular situation. When you have a wide disparity among Sagarin Sched. Strength 21 vs 11 in this situation the data shows the home team often covers these situations when you have a 1/5 situation and the 1 is Rushing Off. for the away team.
There are patterns in the data and that’s worked well for me over the last 15 years. I’m taking the Rams – 4.
one stat I heard is the Rams DL QB pressures is Top 5, whereas the Bengals OL stat in that spot is like 27th. When I heard that I remembered how Donald (and the other Rams) repeatedly pressured Kyler Murray and took away his ability to scramble. Add Ramsey to the mix in the secondary and it’s pretty tough to score on them early in the game.
one stat I heard is the Rams DL QB pressures is Top 5, whereas the Bengals OL stat in that spot is like 27th. When I heard that I remembered how Donald (and the other Rams) repeatedly pressured Kyler Murray and took away his ability to scramble. Add Ramsey to the mix in the secondary and it’s pretty tough to score on them early in the game.
You do see teams get to the mountain but don't get very far on their climb until the next time around (if there good enough for a next time). I find a lot of those, hard to quantify specifically things, are either displayed in the stats above or possibly the opening line.
I do think the best kept secret is how/what goes into the opening line specifically. Would love to be a fly on the wall when that's developed. Some in here say their line is more like 5.5 - 2.5, etc. - we beleive the house wants even action on both sides - makes total sense to me, however, the specific line weights and what's included in coming up with -4 vs - 3.5 - etc. I've never seen the specific weights laid out from anyone in here, thus what i am saying is just a speculative comment. Should be a fun game to watch. Either way BOL to ya.
You do see teams get to the mountain but don't get very far on their climb until the next time around (if there good enough for a next time). I find a lot of those, hard to quantify specifically things, are either displayed in the stats above or possibly the opening line.
I do think the best kept secret is how/what goes into the opening line specifically. Would love to be a fly on the wall when that's developed. Some in here say their line is more like 5.5 - 2.5, etc. - we beleive the house wants even action on both sides - makes total sense to me, however, the specific line weights and what's included in coming up with -4 vs - 3.5 - etc. I've never seen the specific weights laid out from anyone in here, thus what i am saying is just a speculative comment. Should be a fun game to watch. Either way BOL to ya.
It’s just amazing that such brilliant people can be so stuuuupid.
Burning all these tickets. All these special plans. All these “let’s go money line because they won’t lose at home because of the def line….blah blah blah…”
It’s just amazing that such brilliant people can be so stuuuupid.
Burning all these tickets. All these special plans. All these “let’s go money line because they won’t lose at home because of the def line….blah blah blah…”
The Rams is the “obvious” pick. Is it really that obvious? I don’t think so. Which QB is better under pressure? I think Joe B is better than Matt S. Talking experience like the other poster said, Rams coach has more experience but he also made some bad management that cost them. The Bengals defense will make great adjustments to confuse Matt S. The Rams “might” win the game but not cover.
The Rams is the “obvious” pick. Is it really that obvious? I don’t think so. Which QB is better under pressure? I think Joe B is better than Matt S. Talking experience like the other poster said, Rams coach has more experience but he also made some bad management that cost them. The Bengals defense will make great adjustments to confuse Matt S. The Rams “might” win the game but not cover.
If the Rams win history says they will cover, only 6 Super Bowl games the dog lost but covered the spread and they were all higher pt spreads than 4 or 5 and that was over 13 years ago. I am thinking pick the winner and at least history says it will cover. Just my 2 cents. I'm with TheBuddah on the Rams
If the Rams win history says they will cover, only 6 Super Bowl games the dog lost but covered the spread and they were all higher pt spreads than 4 or 5 and that was over 13 years ago. I am thinking pick the winner and at least history says it will cover. Just my 2 cents. I'm with TheBuddah on the Rams
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