Pre-Season - Bet or No Bet - Pick & Y

I've always looked at sportsbetting as - everyday there's a possible opportunity or opportunities.    You just need something to hang your hat on.     I do think you need to be extremely careful during the preseason for the obvious reasons.     

I like current data to make predictions with and at this juncture all we have are last years numbers, the opening lines that oddsmakers put on the games and whatever insightful info. you might find out about.   I listen to insightful info. but stick to last years numbers and opening lines for Pre-season and the first week of the NFL season. 

Once again I'm pretty selective overall but very much so during pre-season.     I think we have an opportunity this week - Let's look at some numbers:  

        Detroit   14 3 14 20 10 12

-3.5  Cincy     29 6 32 26 21 14   

Cincy opened up as a 3.5 fav currently 6.5 - 7 (madduxsports.com) .    Using last years numbers - Detroit is better across the board in Off rushing rank at 14 vs 29;  Off Passing rank at 3 vs 6 ;  Def Rushing rank at 14 vs 32;  Def Passing rank at 20 vs 26;  Sagarin rank at 10 vs 21 and sagarin sched strength at 12 vs 14  .     Based on the data I collect and how I analyze games - I like Cincy to cover the spread of  6.5 .   The Why part is the odds makers made cincy a 3.5 fav. with an opening line of 3.5 for the home team in this situation and comparing it to other pre-season games with this scenario the data strongly supports taking Cincy even though the line has jumped to 6.5 or 7.   The last time this scenario occurred was in 2024 when GBY played Denver (2nd week Preseason)  opening line was the same and the line jumped to 6.5 - Denver won the game 2-27  .   

I think we have an opportunity here as well.    Good luck all and have a super season.       

Let's go I'm stoked about football ?? already