Playoff home dogs of 4 pts or more are 9-4-1 ATS s/'66.

Wild Card round - 6-1 ATS

Divisional round - 1-1 ATS

Conference finals - 2-2-1 ATS

Don't believe your AI searches when they say this:

Based on data from 2026, Based on data from 2026, home underdogs of at least 4 points in the NFL playoffs have historically performed exceptionally well against the spread (ATS), with one report indicating they are 9-0 to 10-0 ATS over the last 50 years.

Overall those playoff home dogs of 4 points or more have gone 6-8 SU & 9-4-1 ATS. I see lots of people saying they are 9-0 SU & ATS over the past 50 years. They're not.

I've seen the stat from several different sources. I'm not sure what YOUR source is, but it's a mute point with the line currently at 3'.

My source are my spreadsheets which go all the way back to the first round of playoffs in 1933. I'm truly amazed at how AI spreads incorrect information and people just lap it up as the truth.

Not going to get into a pissing contest with you, but who's to say YOUR source is legit? I'll stick with what I've seen from SEVERAL different sources until proven otherwise. BOL sir! 

@C-70Blues

 Seriously?

Dude you heard this on VSIN. Don’t try to be something you’re not to impress the people here. You’re not running spreadsheets back to the dawn of time. 

Regardless, trends are so dumb unless they’re the same team, in season and preferably within the last 5 games. 

Seriously I don't listen to sports radio or sports talk shows of any kind. And if you want the results of those 4 point home dogs through the years just let me know. I have them because I don't rely on AI (See my tagline).

Then you're using incorrect information.

Wild Card round

2000 Saints +6.5 vs Rams 31-28W

2008 Dolphins +4 vs Ravens 9-27L

2010 Seahawks +10 vs Saints 41-36W

2011 Broncos +7.5 vs Steelers 29-23W

2015 Vikings +4.5 vs Seahawks 9-10L

2020 Redskins +10 vs Buccaneers 23-31L

2025 Panthers +10 vs Rams 31-34L  

Divisional round

1971 Browns +4 vs Colts 3-20L

1979 Buccaneers +4.5 vs Eagles 24-17W  

Conference finals

1966 Cowboys +7 vs Packers 27-34L

1968 Browns +6 vs Colts 0-34L

1976 Raiders +4 vs Steelers 24-7W

1977 Broncos +4 vs Raiders 20-17W

2012 Falcons +4 vs 49ers 24-28L  

Denver no longer +4 or higher so wont qualify today unless the line goes back up before kickoff

@C-70Blues

 Prove it. If you have the info then post all the instances since 1976. Post the games, the spreads and the results. You'd be doing the forum a favor, and we all have a common goal: BEAT THE BOOKS!

I'm well aware of that. My point is people are buying into this 9-0 SU & ATS stat being spit out by AI as fact.

Betting on trends makes bettors poor and guys like Marc Lawrence rich.

It's literally 2-2-1 in conf championships so I don't see it as significant at all. How many of those teams started a backup vs an MVP runner up (who IMO should be the winner he had less star WRs and lots of rush yards, best completion % and best yards per comp too)

Just did.

Any other requests?

Ok, the system says anything OVER 4 points (+4.5 on up) and we're not concerned about SU records. The only thing that counts is the spread! You count the Vikings 2015 game as a loss, but they covered the spread! Also, the lines vary depending on the source! I won with the Falcons +4' over the 49ers in 2012 for example.  If you check the ATS records over the last 50 years (since 1975) you'll see where you went wrong

AI is stating these teams are 9-0 SU & ATS. They're not.

@C-70Blues

 Gullible stupid people who can't figure things out for themselves follow AI

I've noticed.

Wild Card round

2000 Saints +6.5 vs Rams 31-28W

2010 Seahawks +10 vs Saints 41-36W

2011 Broncos +7.5 vs Steelers 29-23W

2015 Vikings +4.5 vs Seahawks 9-10L

2020 Redskins +10 vs Buccaneers 23-31L

2025 Panthers +10 vs Rams 31-34L  

Divisional round

1979 Buccaneers +4.5 vs Eagles 24-17W  

Conference finals

1966 Cowboys +7 vs Packers 27-34L

1968 Browns +6 vs Colts 0-34L

I took out the games that were +4 and the numbers (4-5 SU & 7-1-1 ATS) are still nowhere near what AI is showing.  

Ok, using the games you selected 

Wild Card round

3-3 SU, 6-0 ATS 

Divisional round 

1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS 

Conference finals

0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS (the system counts the 49ers-Falcons game as a win with the line at +4.5) 

I come up with 4-4 SU, 8-0 ATS.

And that's since 1975! 50 years ago, not 60. You probably oughta proofread your spreadsheet. 

@Boisestateand8

 Info seems to be convoluted more than ever these days. Whether it's honest mistakes, or different spreads used, ie(opening # vs closing), who knows.

A professional bettor on a podcast just said that it's now 10-0 ats after the Broncos cover.

I don't know or really care at this point, but will surely remember if this occasion happens again.

New England (+4.5) is the home team in SB LX, does this trend count also?