Got a good win yesterday winning 4,500. on Houston outright win. When I cap this game , the Steel curtain should be favs between 6 to 7.5 pts but, they’re not. Lines been between 3.5 to 5 all week long , I guess Metcalf being out is the reason why, and my conclusion says the same. He’s Pitts main red zone target and him being out along with their other wideout C. Austin, Gainwell becomes Pitts main target today. Cleveland limited Gainwell to 14 yards the last time these teams played. The weather is cold and windy today in Cleveland. 20 to 30 mph wind factor with a gust even higher. This is a game the stronger defense will feast all day long and flip the field in their teams favor. Pitts defense ranks anywhere between 10th & 19th, not too bad. But Pitt’s D on the road give up on average 380.8 yards per game, where Cleveland @ home give up only 249.1 yards per game on average. That’s a night & day metric that you have to take very serious. Q. Judkins is out for Cleveland and that’s a big loss, but Fannin is back for Cleveland who’s one of the best TE’s league wide. M. Garrett wants this sack record, and he will get it today. He’s going up against a rookie tackle today , that’s going to get burned all day long. These two teams hate each other. Teams with nothing to play for in the final two weeks cover @ a 61% in the final two weeks of the season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season vs a team that made the playoffs are 24-16 ATS this season. Divisional dogs home or away are 41-35 ATS this season. Dogs off a loss vs an opponent off a win are 45-35 ATS this season ( 56 % cover rate ). Pitt does a better SOS by about 8 or 9 spots but, this is a divisional game, we’re at home and we’re getting pts in a cold and windy game. Pts will be at a premium. Pitt gives up on average 21.93 1st downs a game, CLE only give up around 16.40 per game . We will get more possessions today vs an aging QB with a ton of injuries on their side. Give me the Browns at home , who has one of the top ATS records league wide , and it’s been that way for years. CLE + 4.5 3,300/3,000 & CLE + 5 600/500 GL to all
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