Of concern for Seattle

one key to the game:

NE just beat the #1 sack leader (Denver with 68) who also led the league in QB knockdowns by a country mile (80)

Yes, they did sack NE 5 times but the Patriots also racked up 141 rushing yards (and 3 straight playoff games with 100+ rushing yards)

by contrast, NE also beat the Texans who had 47 sacks which is the same as the Seahawks

& they won both those games vs top 5 D's in terrible weather (not including a top 10 D' of the Chargers)

but of bigger concern is NE had the lowest number of missed tackles in their passing D' (71) while Seattle had one of the highest number of missed tackles (110) - on par with Arizona, Dallas, Miami & the New York Jets

while allowing 2184 yards-after-catch (YAC)...more than Dallas, Miami, the Jets, the Rams & the Redskins...

this is a huge red flag & I cannot back a D' that bad

@Riderx

 Paying much attention to the Patriots 3 playoff games this year is useless in handicapping this next game imo. They were handed two wins against Houston and Denver by offenses that couldn’t produce anything whatsoever. You can give some credit to the Patriots defense if you want, but Stidham and Stroud performed so poorly that it was nearly impossible for those teams to win. And still it only resulted in a 5 point win against Houston and a 7 point win against Denver where the 7 points were a direct result of a Stidham gift wrapped score. Not much different in the Charger game. That offensive line was so horrendous that Herbert couldn’t possibly produce with his offense. I don’t think you’ll see anything similar to that against Seattle, especially with weather being a non factor.

Okay but you were 0-4 last week and 3 of those bets weren’t even close. Sooo…

spot on 

yeah...no sh*t...same as last year...but now is the SB & if you remember my SB post from last year I made up for all of that +++

the post & the thread are still in here in which I called for a blowout by Philly & alt lines...got paid huge

& I've been workin' on this SB everyday & have it pegged...which I will post next Saturday

@brn2loslive2win

They beat Houston by 12 and Denver by 3. But I totally agree with your analysis 

Checking the defensive numbers for the 2025 regular season and I see Seattle finished 2nd in net yards per pass attempt and 1st in yards per rushing attempt allowed. That seems to be in conflict with the numbers you posted.

@Riderx

Good luck, Riderx!  

I remember. You’ll deliver 

For some reason I remembered the final in the Houston game as 21-16. And was thinking 10-3 against Denver for some reason as opposed to 10-7. Total jackassery on my part. 

mine are not "net yards"

just pure numbers straight up

& if it weren't for a punt return fumble, the Rams would be in the SB

I'm not here to argue...just posting facts

& Seattle allowed more points in one playoff game (27) than NE did in 3 playoff games (26)

check:  Maye's TD-to-INT vs Darnold's TD-to-INT during the regular season

Its simple. Every time you fade situations that work you lose. You did it with Rams/Panthers and Bears/Packers and some others.

1 seed is 0-10 ats since 2000 vs WC teams in SB

Pats +4.5

I played Philly but I think I remember you on the Chiefs last year. Am I incorrect? 

@Riderx

 Let's not forget the weather conditions in Boston & Denver which definitely made defenses look better than reality and offenses worse than reality.

I highly doubt we will see anything close to these conditions for the SB since it's being played in Cali.

NE allowed only 8.7ppg in 3 WC games...only Balt in '00 allowed less for a WC team in the SB

H*ll no...check the thread

I'm on the Pats

Who did Seahawks play this year vs who did NE play? Seahawks played 3 times… a Super Bowl favorite LA Rams with Puka and Adam and almost won all 3. What would NE fair against Rams 3 times this year? It’s easy to have good stats when you play one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Stats are for losers without context. 

Seattle gave up 374 pass yards on 22 completions & 3 TD's in good weather at home

Then take Seattle.

As far as the SB goes...there have been 14 WC teams to make the SB since '00

11-3 s/u

13-1 ats

('21 had both LAR & Cin...Rams won s/u but lost ats, the only ats loss)

@Riderx

New England's pass rush is pretty daunting in their three playoff games. 12 sacks (ranked #2 per game), opponents' completion % at 51 (#1), completion average 4.6 yards (#1), passer rating 51.2 (#1), rushing yards per game 71.3 (#1)...

Those are some good numbers from the Pats' defense squad.  

Yeah their D is so bad they allowed the lowest points per game in the league and 6th most takeaways they must really suck

I agree.

Pat's OC will call a much stronger game and use Hunter Henry to take the chip.