EAGLES -8' vs. Cowboys - Line moved up from the opener of -7 , no doubt because of the Micah Parsons trade. Philly had massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball and will have five new starters, but this is still a pretty good unit. Meanwhile, there's plenty of "D" in Dallas. That is "D" as in drama and dysfunction. Defense is another story. It'll be interesting to see how the Eagles offense responds with former OC Kellen Moore now in New Orleans, but they should be able click against this defense. Whether the Cowboys can keep up remains to be seen. Threat of a back door cover will keep me off this one.
Friday, Sept. 5th
Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers at Sao Paulo - Super Bowl losers are historically a risky bet the following season, and the Chiefs had it all working for them last season going 12-0 in one score games, including both meetings with the Bolts. Fact is they weren't as good as their 17-3 record would suggest, as they were just 12-8 ITS (in the stats), and were badly exposed in the Super Bowl. Having said that, the Chargers have lost seven straight meetings with K.C. and I have some questions about their defensive line, especially in the middle now that NT Poona Ford is now a Ram. Pass.
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Thursday, Sept. 4th
EAGLES -8' vs. Cowboys - Line moved up from the opener of -7 , no doubt because of the Micah Parsons trade. Philly had massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball and will have five new starters, but this is still a pretty good unit. Meanwhile, there's plenty of "D" in Dallas. That is "D" as in drama and dysfunction. Defense is another story. It'll be interesting to see how the Eagles offense responds with former OC Kellen Moore now in New Orleans, but they should be able click against this defense. Whether the Cowboys can keep up remains to be seen. Threat of a back door cover will keep me off this one.
Friday, Sept. 5th
Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers at Sao Paulo - Super Bowl losers are historically a risky bet the following season, and the Chiefs had it all working for them last season going 12-0 in one score games, including both meetings with the Bolts. Fact is they weren't as good as their 17-3 record would suggest, as they were just 12-8 ITS (in the stats), and were badly exposed in the Super Bowl. Having said that, the Chargers have lost seven straight meetings with K.C. and I have some questions about their defensive line, especially in the middle now that NT Poona Ford is now a Ram. Pass.
Buccaneers -1' at FALCONS - Tampa QBBaker Mayfield had a career year last season, but how will he do this year with his OC, Liam Coen, now HC at J'ville? Falcons spent the off-season trying to improve their 31st ranked pass rush, and catch a break with Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs out for this game.
Bengals -5' at BROWNS - Under Zac Taylor, Cincy is 1-11 SU in its' first two games of the season, including 0-6 as a pick or favorite, and before last season's series sweep the Browns had won six straight meetings at home. The Bengals are determined to start fast this year, but is a change in coordinators enough to fix their defense? And can their offensive line, which has finished #30, #30, #27 and #32 in pass block win rate, have any success vs. the best defensive line in the NFL? Myles Garrett missed practice a couple days ago, but has been cleared to play, and he's been a nightmare for Joe Burrows over the years. It's also worth noting that NFL division home dogs are 24-7 ATS in Week One. This feels like a 20-17 kind of game.
COLTS -1 vs. Dolphins - Miami has a long injury list, but at least Tua Tagovailoa is healthy....for now. Indy is a putrid 2-14-1 SU and 2-15 ATS in season openers, including 0-9 ATS as a pick or favorite.
JAGUARS -3' vs. Panthers - Baker Mayfield's loss may be Trevor Lawrence's gain, if new HC Liam Coen is able to turn around Lawrence's career. Early returns are promising as Lawrence has looked like a different QB this off-season, and he's healthy after missing seven games a year ago. Both of these teams overhauled their defenses after finishing in the bottom of the NFL last season. Carolina's "D" was historically bad, especially against the run where they allowed over 3000 yards at 5.2 yards a clip. The wild card in this game is dynamic rookie Travis Hunter who will see action on both sides of the ball. Leaning Jaguars here, but I liked it better at -3.
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Sunday, Sept. 7th - early games
Buccaneers -1' at FALCONS - Tampa QBBaker Mayfield had a career year last season, but how will he do this year with his OC, Liam Coen, now HC at J'ville? Falcons spent the off-season trying to improve their 31st ranked pass rush, and catch a break with Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs out for this game.
Bengals -5' at BROWNS - Under Zac Taylor, Cincy is 1-11 SU in its' first two games of the season, including 0-6 as a pick or favorite, and before last season's series sweep the Browns had won six straight meetings at home. The Bengals are determined to start fast this year, but is a change in coordinators enough to fix their defense? And can their offensive line, which has finished #30, #30, #27 and #32 in pass block win rate, have any success vs. the best defensive line in the NFL? Myles Garrett missed practice a couple days ago, but has been cleared to play, and he's been a nightmare for Joe Burrows over the years. It's also worth noting that NFL division home dogs are 24-7 ATS in Week One. This feels like a 20-17 kind of game.
COLTS -1 vs. Dolphins - Miami has a long injury list, but at least Tua Tagovailoa is healthy....for now. Indy is a putrid 2-14-1 SU and 2-15 ATS in season openers, including 0-9 ATS as a pick or favorite.
JAGUARS -3' vs. Panthers - Baker Mayfield's loss may be Trevor Lawrence's gain, if new HC Liam Coen is able to turn around Lawrence's career. Early returns are promising as Lawrence has looked like a different QB this off-season, and he's healthy after missing seven games a year ago. Both of these teams overhauled their defenses after finishing in the bottom of the NFL last season. Carolina's "D" was historically bad, especially against the run where they allowed over 3000 yards at 5.2 yards a clip. The wild card in this game is dynamic rookie Travis Hunter who will see action on both sides of the ball. Leaning Jaguars here, but I liked it better at -3.
PATRIOTS -2' vs. Raiders - Both teams finished last in their respective divisions at 4-13, both teams have new coaches, and both teams look to be much improved over last season. Pete Carroll has given Vegas fans a transfusion of enthusiasm. They should have better QB play with Geno Smith, and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty addresses one of their biggest weaknesses from last season. As for the Pats, Mike Vrabel overhauled the roster, especially on the offensive line and the defensive front seven. If anything they're tougher. Tough call here, but the slightest of leans to the Silver and Black.
Cardinals -6' at SAINTS - I have no idea what to expect from the Saints under first time HC Kellen Moore. I'll be curious to see what kind of impact he has on QB Spencer Rattler. I do know that when everybody is telling you how bad you're gonna suck it can fire up a locker room. The Cards made big improvements to their defensive personnel but are running it back on offense behind QB Kyler Murray. I prefer backing Arizona as a dog rather than as chalk, given Murray's inconsistency. Might actually play this if it goes to +7 but right now it's just a slight lean to New Orleans.
Steelers -2' at JETS - What does 42 year old Aaron Rodgers have left in the tank? That's the burning question for Pittsburgh. Aaron Glenn is the Jets new first time head coach, and he has three unproven coordinators. Ex Steeler Justin Fields replaces Rodgers at QB in an interesting twist.
REDSKINS -6 vs. Giants - Russell Wilson takes over at QB for the G- men, who weren't as bad as they looked a season ago. 'Skins went from 4-13 in '23 to 14-6 a year ago, and had a lot of things go right. Regression? More than likely, and the Giants look to be improved. I don't like this line though. If it was +7 I'd be leaning dog here, but it's not so I'm not. Pass.
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PATRIOTS -2' vs. Raiders - Both teams finished last in their respective divisions at 4-13, both teams have new coaches, and both teams look to be much improved over last season. Pete Carroll has given Vegas fans a transfusion of enthusiasm. They should have better QB play with Geno Smith, and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty addresses one of their biggest weaknesses from last season. As for the Pats, Mike Vrabel overhauled the roster, especially on the offensive line and the defensive front seven. If anything they're tougher. Tough call here, but the slightest of leans to the Silver and Black.
Cardinals -6' at SAINTS - I have no idea what to expect from the Saints under first time HC Kellen Moore. I'll be curious to see what kind of impact he has on QB Spencer Rattler. I do know that when everybody is telling you how bad you're gonna suck it can fire up a locker room. The Cards made big improvements to their defensive personnel but are running it back on offense behind QB Kyler Murray. I prefer backing Arizona as a dog rather than as chalk, given Murray's inconsistency. Might actually play this if it goes to +7 but right now it's just a slight lean to New Orleans.
Steelers -2' at JETS - What does 42 year old Aaron Rodgers have left in the tank? That's the burning question for Pittsburgh. Aaron Glenn is the Jets new first time head coach, and he has three unproven coordinators. Ex Steeler Justin Fields replaces Rodgers at QB in an interesting twist.
REDSKINS -6 vs. Giants - Russell Wilson takes over at QB for the G- men, who weren't as bad as they looked a season ago. 'Skins went from 4-13 in '23 to 14-6 a year ago, and had a lot of things go right. Regression? More than likely, and the Giants look to be improved. I don't like this line though. If it was +7 I'd be leaning dog here, but it's not so I'm not. Pass.
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