NFL WEEK 18 ...................2025/2026

My Other System ....................13-12-1 ATS

back to back losing weeks. Yikkers 

2cd time this year, 2-0 ATS off the last time it happened.  Hopefully the method bounces back here.

3-1 would give the method 55% on the year.

Packers +10 (-125) over Vikes --- 1.25 units

Bengals -7.5 over Browns --- 1.1 units

Chargers +14 (-130) over Denver --- 1.3 units

Dolphins +11.5 (-115) over Pats --- 1.15 units

Bounce Factor ................... 

Falcons -3 (-130) over Saints --- 1.3 units

Fade on the Saints in the 2cd game of the BF generally a bigger play is appropriate in the 2cd game.

I missed getting the -3 so bought the half a point to make up for that.

Bought to key numbers in other games, hopefully it won't matter but it certainly could. Just 1 push makes it well worth it.

I liked Seahawks in 9ers game for sure. However looks like a big line movement on Seahawks. From what I am seeing on you tube public seems to be more on 9ers while sharps are on Seahawks.

But I don't play into these big line movements regardless of who causes them.

And dogs that flip to favorites like the Seahawks did are fades over time is the right side.

To me it is Seahawks or no play so I'll pass but be rooting for Seahawks as I have futures  play on them winning the division and I still think they will.

Consider this......

9ers off 48,42and 37 points scored in their past 3 games.

That is the most points scored, 2cd most and 4th most scored in any game this season.

And they have gained over 400 yards of offense in all 3 games which is their 1st, 2cd, 3rd best performance  all season. with only 1 other game all season over 400 yards.

Not sustainable. I pointed this out last week on the Rams and they lost SU to Falcons while going Under on the game and Rams TT going Under.

I'd look for the same with 9ers.

Isn’t there a Bator rule with the 49ers scoring 37-48-42 ? 

@kidd22

 It's win 30+ while holding opponents below 10, I believe. Someone will be here shortly butching about the name of it

BOL 

Good luck, Claw

Good luck Claw.  

Good luck.

I don't think any Bator rule I am aware of that uses only points scored .............

Yep that is it .........

Thanks ......

Thank you ............

Who you got this week dog ? ............

Seahawks got it done. Their defense  laid a major beatdown on this high flying 9er offense.

However, let's not overreact as 9ers offense in regression mode so some kind of regression should be expected.

But damn that was a major regression/beatdown which does happen but that kind of beatdown I doubt could be expected.

Although they do happen from time to time.

Darnold completely outplayed Purdy, 98 QBPR to 66 for Purdy who average less then 5 yards per pass.

So much for all those doubting Darnold could get it done.

Thing to keep in mind is this Seahawks team is far better then that Vikings team Darnold played on and played poorly when it mattered most.

That is important  to understand.

Tied for first in an all picks ATS season pool heading into this last week claw for 20k. Your one of the guys I’m checking my leanings against today please bring me the good juju! This week feels like a glorified preseason schedule for me the league for several teams. Goodluck today 

@theclaw

 A Seahawks/Texans match-up would be a helluva SB. Way too early for that kind of speculation though.

Futures Plays ............2025

KC UNDER 12.5 wins -240 --- 2.4 units to win 1 unit

KC UNDER 11.5 wins -135 --- 1.35 units to win 1 units

Made at beginning  of season.

Packers to win Division -125 --- 2.5 units to win 2 units

Made after week 1.

Colts to win division -130 --- 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Lions to win division +160 --- 1 units to win 1.6 units

Seahawks to win division +2.75 --- 1 unit to win 2.75 units

Made after week 6 based on top 5 in pts per plays margin

Steelers were  a team in top 5 who I could have played but did not. They will probably win .

Won 3 , lost 3.

Won 4.75 units

Lost 4.8 units

Well not the best but hey, close to breaking even not all that bad. We'll worth the shot to me.

I never seen the Bears doing what they are doing as I thought one of Packers or Lions was a high probability  win. 

The big issue you have with futures  is injuries, nothing you can do about that. But sometimes injuries can work to your advantage as well.

So we need to take the good with the bad.

Wow that's awesome, I hope u get it done.

Best of luck ..............

Yes. I think Texans have a reasonable shot.

Although they have regressed in PR 1 since I last posted the PR's and they were the best team in AFC.

Who else is there ? ..................

@theclaw

 Bills 

Last 4 of 5 years, they were eliminated by Chiefs and now they don’t have that problem this year. They are due

Bills too. A lot of teams have to figure this year's their best shot.