Was a great first night hitting the FH over comfortably as well as the Eagles TT in the FH. I think there are some pretty tough games today and I won't be around the entirety of the day so might just come along and post more plays as the day goes on. But there are definitely teams that we will look back on and scratch our heads as to how they were favored so much and how they were underdogs, once the season finishes and we look back to week 1. The goal is finding those spots early that have the value. I think I have a couple earmarked so let's see how the day turns out.
Here are the games that I will be on:
NYG (+6)...BIG PLAY!!!: I do not think that the preseason for the Commanders is something to just shrug off. Yes, there are sophomore slumps but every single time I've seen a WR holdout through training camp, they do not come out of the gates awesome. Makes a lot of sense and with the question marks at RB for the Guardians and the uncertainty as to how Deebo Samuel's knee holds up, I think the 6 points is a bit rich. On the other side of the ball the Giants have some coaching consistency and are now tuning the leaf on the Daniel Jones era. Russell Wilson manages a game MUCH better and with some protection will be able to find Mailk Nabers and Tyrone Tracy is a really good RB. Add to that the Giants 9-3 ATS over the last 12 played in Washington and even more recently 6-1 ATS over the last 7, and I'm loving this play.
NEW ORLEANS (+6):. The Saints are supposed to be miserable this year but I'm not buying it. They had tremendous misfortune last year and few offensive pieces but now with Olave, Kamara, and Rasheed Shaheen healthy, they should be able to score a bit. Rattler isn't exactly the top pro QB but he can move out of the pocket if need be. The Saints defense is always good at home and the Cardinals, as good as they are on offense, are traveling on the road to New Orleans where they are 0-5 ATS over the last 5 and 1-7 ATS over the last 8 played in New Orleans.
OVER 47 (TB/ATL)...BIG PLAY!!!: Well, these games have gone OVER in 20 out of the past 28 affairs played IN Atlanta. I'm not going to even start to assess the prowess of each offense, if Michael Penix can do half of what people expect, this should easily play into the 50's.
I"m going to leave it at those 3 but I will come back to add the later games. I'll start a new thread for tonight's game. I'll be at the baseball game this afternoon so limited communication on here. Hopefully it will all be cheers I miss. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
4
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD (NFL): 3-0 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-0 ATS)
Was a great first night hitting the FH over comfortably as well as the Eagles TT in the FH. I think there are some pretty tough games today and I won't be around the entirety of the day so might just come along and post more plays as the day goes on. But there are definitely teams that we will look back on and scratch our heads as to how they were favored so much and how they were underdogs, once the season finishes and we look back to week 1. The goal is finding those spots early that have the value. I think I have a couple earmarked so let's see how the day turns out.
Here are the games that I will be on:
NYG (+6)...BIG PLAY!!!: I do not think that the preseason for the Commanders is something to just shrug off. Yes, there are sophomore slumps but every single time I've seen a WR holdout through training camp, they do not come out of the gates awesome. Makes a lot of sense and with the question marks at RB for the Guardians and the uncertainty as to how Deebo Samuel's knee holds up, I think the 6 points is a bit rich. On the other side of the ball the Giants have some coaching consistency and are now tuning the leaf on the Daniel Jones era. Russell Wilson manages a game MUCH better and with some protection will be able to find Mailk Nabers and Tyrone Tracy is a really good RB. Add to that the Giants 9-3 ATS over the last 12 played in Washington and even more recently 6-1 ATS over the last 7, and I'm loving this play.
NEW ORLEANS (+6):. The Saints are supposed to be miserable this year but I'm not buying it. They had tremendous misfortune last year and few offensive pieces but now with Olave, Kamara, and Rasheed Shaheen healthy, they should be able to score a bit. Rattler isn't exactly the top pro QB but he can move out of the pocket if need be. The Saints defense is always good at home and the Cardinals, as good as they are on offense, are traveling on the road to New Orleans where they are 0-5 ATS over the last 5 and 1-7 ATS over the last 8 played in New Orleans.
OVER 47 (TB/ATL)...BIG PLAY!!!: Well, these games have gone OVER in 20 out of the past 28 affairs played IN Atlanta. I'm not going to even start to assess the prowess of each offense, if Michael Penix can do half of what people expect, this should easily play into the 50's.
I"m going to leave it at those 3 but I will come back to add the later games. I'll start a new thread for tonight's game. I'll be at the baseball game this afternoon so limited communication on here. Hopefully it will all be cheers I miss. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
I think team histories are more important than anyone thinks. There is a consistency that people shrug at because of all the personnel changes. Your write ups are solid and I’m liking your approach in Week 1.
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I think team histories are more important than anyone thinks. There is a consistency that people shrug at because of all the personnel changes. Your write ups are solid and I’m liking your approach in Week 1.
I like it and for some of the reasons stated above. First week of the season, team does NOT do well when visiting NO, and new season with some new pieces as well as some healthy pieces. I don't think we saw the real Saints team last year though that's probably not saying much. I think their defense is improved and nobody really focused on that element, then again so are the Cardinals. Maybe a lower scoring game here but the Saints cover LB's well (or did last year if that counts for anything) so they will have to limit big plays from Harrison Jr.
Though if I'm being totally honest if this game came out and were a PK I would NOT be on the Saints. So to answer your question I like the ML but I wouldn't be smashing it until we see a bit more from NO this year. Hope that helps
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Quote Originally Posted by alldub:
I’m thinking about saints moneyline. Thoughts?
@alldub
I like it and for some of the reasons stated above. First week of the season, team does NOT do well when visiting NO, and new season with some new pieces as well as some healthy pieces. I don't think we saw the real Saints team last year though that's probably not saying much. I think their defense is improved and nobody really focused on that element, then again so are the Cardinals. Maybe a lower scoring game here but the Saints cover LB's well (or did last year if that counts for anything) so they will have to limit big plays from Harrison Jr.
Though if I'm being totally honest if this game came out and were a PK I would NOT be on the Saints. So to answer your question I like the ML but I wouldn't be smashing it until we see a bit more from NO this year. Hope that helps
I"m not buying into the Colts today. Very tempted to take Miami few to nobody on them. Also, just for contextual sake, the Rams close to never lose their opening game. Still assessing the later games but will post when I do have them. Just don't want to overdo it.
If anyone is interested I'm throwing the Panthers FH into a parlay I think they could be solid offensively and stay in games if not win them outright. Good spot for them here in FH
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I"m not buying into the Colts today. Very tempted to take Miami few to nobody on them. Also, just for contextual sake, the Rams close to never lose their opening game. Still assessing the later games but will post when I do have them. Just don't want to overdo it.
If anyone is interested I'm throwing the Panthers FH into a parlay I think they could be solid offensively and stay in games if not win them outright. Good spot for them here in FH
I just reread my original post and I called the Commanders the Guardians at one point . Clearly I know the difference but I'm old enough to still call the Commanders the Redskins and Guardians the Indians while also mixing those up. I mean, come on...but they haven't outlawed "the chop"
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I just reread my original post and I called the Commanders the Guardians at one point . Clearly I know the difference but I'm old enough to still call the Commanders the Redskins and Guardians the Indians while also mixing those up. I mean, come on...but they haven't outlawed "the chop"
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