NFL Playoff Team Discussions

@best_bets

 Have the same 

I think Special Teams play will make a noticeable difference this playoffs considering how close alot of these teams are competition wize. I will put more emphasize on this than in previous years. 

@Digitalkarma

Not based on some analytics, stats or trends, just a guy feeling that 49ers and Bills are going to the Super Bowl.

Those two teams, Josh Allen and Brock Purdy, have been to the playoffs games a ton and been refuted for a Super Bowl ring, this might be the year either one of them finally win one.

Tought about John Elway and the Broncos in the '90s. 

Does anyone got any special teams EPA or DVOA stats to spit on me? I found this on Twitter but don't know the veracity of these numbers but feels like the numbers are right. Houston special teams is decent too, good special teams defense and their kicker Fairbarn has come along in recent years. Pineiero and Skyy Moore was a great addition to 49ers special teams and Seahawks have return man Rashid Shaheed and good special teams D too, only one i question is Jason Myers the last few years. 

 https://x.com/i/status/2006060717267640414

Perhaps they have paid their dues but it finally took Elway 14 years , Allen only halfway there 

@Digitalkarma

With Patrick Mahomes out his way this time, Josh Allen might have much better chances than before. Well, what do I know.

DVOA ST top 3:

NYJ 10.3%

SEA 9.6%

WAS 5.0%

No. 12:

SF 1.7%

No. 13:

HOU 1.6%

Rams/Buffalo or Chargers is my choice……Rams have all the right pieces especially with Davante back in the mix. 

Don't know if I'll have time to review the rest of the playoff field but can the discussions continue? 

@MaximusRamulous

 That's my Superbowl matchup. Rams/Bills

Rams or Seahawks in the NFC. AFC is wide open, and I think it's easier to eliminate the pretenders (Pittsburgh, LA Chargers).  However, I do think the Chargers may beat the Pats.

To summarize it for me only way to look at the NFC is the Eagles and the entire NFC West(don't count out the Niners!)  great chance an NFC West team makes it to the Super Bowl. On the AFC side, it looks a bit weaker. The only perennial contender left is the Bills but Broncos has some pieces to compete. AFC South has been stronger than expected they could surprise in the playoff race. 

I like 49ers +3.5 & ML over Eagles in wildcard 

If the Chargers beat the Patriots on the road you can't exactly call them pretenders. 

Anything can happen, but I don't think they have the talent to win 3 games on the road to get to the SB unless the stars align.  Could very well beat the Pats and get Pitt next round.  Anyhow, I will be on them plus the points vs the Pats.

I think the SB is Denver, Buffalo, Jacksonville vs Seattle, LA Rams 

Eagles line up to -4.5 at DraftKings

Kickers in the playoff field

AFC

Wil Lutz - missed 4 kicks(2 from 40+, 2 from 50+), 86% career kicker. Decent mid-range veteran kicker but nothing remarkable. Not great from long range 

Andres Borregalas - missed 5 kicks(1 from 30+, 4 from 40+) 84% for career. Hit all 4 of his kicks from 50+ yards. Could be a promising kicker considering he's a rookie and less likely to have the yips like Tyler Loop he's shown he's capable from hitting deep.

Cam Little - missed 4 kicks(2 from 40+, 2 from 50+) 90% career kicker. He's got the leg, broke Justin Tucker's field goal record this season. Jaguars possibly have the most talented field goal kicker in the playoff field. In his 2nd year, looks like he has the best range and accuracy of the recent young kickers

Chris Boswell - missed 5 kicks(2 from 30+, 1 from 40+, 2 from 50+) 87% career kicker. Long time kicker for Steelers. Has hit some clutch kicks in his career, can hit those long distance shots. Mostly consistent kicker throughout his career. 

Kai'mi Fairbairn - missed 4 kicks(4 from 50+), 87% career kicker. Veteran kicker for the Texans. He has been much more consistent the last few years. Weakness is in the long range game he is hit or miss, but otherwise has improved his accuracy. Solid year for the Texans kicker he has stepped up his game.

Matt Prater - missed 2 kicks(1 from 30+, 1 from 50+), 83% career kicker. Oldest kicker in the field. Prater is long time accomplished kicker, might not have the power in his leg like he used to but his experience in tight playoff atmosphere is on his side. Bills hadn't need to use him that often. He's attempted only 20 kicks this year. 

Cameron Dicker - missed 3 kicks(1 each from 30, 40, 50+) 93% career kicker. Dicker has been accurate from midrange but has been a bit spotty at times from 50+ in his career. Dicker has established himself as one of the better young kickers in the league

Top 3 kickers in the AFC: Cam Little, Cameron Dicker, Chris Boswell. Honorable mention: Kai'mi Fairbairn

NFC next

NFC

Jason Myers - missed 7 kicks(2 from 40+, 3 from 50+) 85% career kicker. Veteran kicker who has had some decent years but not as accurate compared to other kickers from 40+/50+ yards. If I had to pick a weak link from Seahawks special teams it's their kicker. 

Cairo Santos - missed 5 kicks(2 from 40+, 2 from 50+) 85% career kicker. Journeyman kicker who has recently found a home with the Bears. Accuracy from long range has been an issue, but he has improved a bit in that area as Bears kicker. 

Jake Elliot - missed 7 kicks(3 from 40+, 4 from 50+) 83% career kicker. He has hit some clutch kicks earlier in his career with Eagles but he has been in a funk since last season where he missed 6 of 7 field goal from 50 yards. Jake Elliot might possibly be the most washed kicker in the field. 

Ryan Fitzgerald - missed 5 kicks(1 from 40+, 3 from 50+) 82% career kicker. Don't know too much about this Panthers kicker but from the looks of it, he might be the weakest rookie kicker in the playoff field. To his credit he has made some clutch kicks though only because of how bad Panthers are offensively.

Harrison Mevis - missed 1 kick(1 from 40+) 92% career kicker. Mevis replaced Rams original starting kicker Karty as an 2024 undrafted kicker getting his first season. Possibly the biggest frame I've seen from any kicker in history with the nickname Thiccer Kicker, so far he hasn't disappoint. Might be a nice rare win for a dismal Rams special teams this season.

Eddy Pineiero - missed 1 kick(1 from 50+) 89% career kicker. Journeyman kicker who recently found home with 49ers. Made the smart move to replace Jake Moody. Pinero has rewarded the Niners with best numbers of his career. Hit 6 of 7 from 50+ with his longest made kick of his career with 59 yards. Pineiro is the hottest kicker going into the tournament

Brandon McManus - missed 6 kicks(4 from 40+, 2 from 50+) 82% kicker. McManus and Elliot are the only kickers from the field that have a Super Bowl ring but McManus is serviceable. Had a good year last season with Packers but is hit and miss. 

My top 3 kickers from NFC: Eddy Pineiro, Cairo Santos, Harrison Mevis

My Overall Top 5: Eddy Pineiero, Cam Little, Cameron Dicker, Chris Boswell, Cairo Santos

Starting field position could mean the difference from winning and losing. Teams with game-changing Return man: 

Seahawks - Rashid Shaheed

Broncos - Marvin Mims

Patriots - Marcus Jones

Jaguars - Parker Washington

Texans - Jaylin Noel

Bears - Devin Duvernay

49ers - Skyy Moore

Can't see Eagles coming far in playoffs. It's just not it this year. Too shaky.

Here is the wild thing, if somehow Rams, Niners and Packers should all win in this week. Rams, a wildcard team, will host the Divisional Playoffs at home vs Niners. Packers will visit Seahawks in the next week. 

@Europa

 Bills fan since the 1960’s…

Lots of concerns…kicker is hurt again, no BOSA, no Ed Oliver, no pass rush…Allen and Cook are fantastic but…

Fair point, appears tough road game for the Niners on Sunday. I think if Niners' offense could hang mid to high twenties on Eagles, Niners may win this game. Eagles' offense somehow isn't very consistent.