NFL Divisional Round Playoffs...

GL  on your plays today @vanzack 

Nice calls on Sat . . . .  keep doing what you do mah man 

Thanks everyone. Good start.

I'm just a humble guy trying to hit 68% to break even.

McVey....  As usual....  Made every mistake he could down the stretch.

The main one was not kicking onsides after their first TD.  They kicked long, and got the ball at their own 20 after a three and out.   If you onsides kick it - you have a chance of getting the onsides kick (not to mention this weather), and if you dont get it - a 3 and out on defense gets you the ball in almost exactly the same position as kicking deep.

Saquon should have also been coached up to not score on the long TD, but I will forgive them for this as it is a close call IMO and hard to execute.  But in a perfect world, he goes down at about the 15 yard line.

Crazy game.  My heart sunk when he missed the EP after the Saquon TD - because I know McVey isnt going for two if he made it to go up by 14.

McVey goes to Vegas and doubles on a 12 and gets a 9, and looks at you and wonders why you are telling him it is the wrong thing to do.

His luck factor is off the charts.

[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]Thanks everyone. Good start. I'm just a humble guy trying to hit 68% to break even.[/Quote

Never in doubt.

Again.

MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nice work VZ!!! 

Nice weekend 

3-0-1 

@vanzack

 Now that is the Vanzack we all know and leach off 

I see 2-2...shady

He literally posted his play in the first post.

Chiefs won by 9. Commanders won,

Eagles won by 6, Bills won

How on earth do you have it as 2-2?

Why KC talking crazy about you?

Good work today,thanks for your kind words!

@NEGolfJosh3

 my imaginary crypto fortune bought my condo in waikiki. thanks imaginary crypto

should've been a clean sweep, but the two missed extra pointers by the Eagles screwed Philly backers.  Luckily we both had 6 for a push.  very good divisional weekend 

Great work van 3-0-1 congrats 

Impressive weekend 

Thanks all.

Every NFL loser outgained the winners this weekend.

Turnovers told the story.

I noticed that too. Points were at a premium. I went 1-1-1, but would've been 3-0 if not for an intentional safety (had KC -9) and two missed PATs (had Philly -7). Thankfully I hit my biggest play of the weekend (Buffalo), but that one got interesting towards the end! Whew! Nice 3-0-1 weekend Van! 

We all (me too) sit here and try to handicap yards, because yards are a predictor of points.  But the hardest thing to model is turnovers, and it is the single biggest predictor (more than yards) of winners and losers in NFL betting.

This is why going 55% is such an accomplishment in NFL, and why everyone experiences great variances over the years.

@vanzack

 Agreed. You can't handicap turnovers, and to that I would add special teams and injuries.

@Boisestateand8

 why can't you cap special teams ??  There are plenty of metrics saying otherwise.... excluding metrics even, you can "cap the weather" which can create volatility in the kicking game and turnovers.  

@kcblitzkrieg

 You can't cap kick returns, blocked punts, blocked field goals, or missed extra points. Just because one team may have a special teams advantage going into a game you can't count on it materializing. For instance, had I known the Eagles were gonna miss not one, but TWO PATs I might not have bet the Eagles. I actually did factor in special teams in my Chiefs wager, thinking they were more apt to have a big special teams play than the Texans (and special teams saved KC's ass in that game), but had I known Andy Reid would take an intentional safety......You can handicap Xs and Os, but everything else is just guess work.