NFL - Thursday Night Write Up - Ronistotle

Away team IND has covered 4 of 8 (50.00%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 12.75 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -10.12 points.

IND has scored the following point totals:

[10, 41, 31, 23, 19, 36, 28, 20]

Averaging 26.0 over all games, 27.33 over the last 3, and 24.8 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[24, 21, 27, 32, 11, 7, 11, 27]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 20.0 points for all games and 24.0 over L3.

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Home team TEN has covered 3 of 8 (37.50%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 10.5 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -6.0 points.

TEN has scored the following point totals:

[24, 20, 24, 42, 42, 31, 33, 16]

Averaging 29.0 over all games, 22.67 over the last 3, and 30.4 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[17, 31, 27, 36, 16, 30, 30, 14]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 25.12 points for all games and 25.0 over L3.

FYI to all, I will be creating automated write-ups for certain NFL and NCAA games that jump out. Much of the analysis is done ATS so please keep this in mind. 

After reviewing the above info, I can see that the Indy offense has not been very consistent in that they are really hit or miss. Given they either cover by 12 points or lose ATS by -10.

For Tennesse they have been on a downtrend offensively, averaging 29.0 across the entire season, 30.4 L5, and 22.67 over the last 3. However the Indy defense has begun to soften, allowing 24 points per game, 4 more than their season average of 20. This while their last few matchups were not vs the strongest offenses (Baltimore, Detriot, and Cincy respectively).

With this said, I trust Tennessee at home more than Indy even though they are covering at a lower clip (37.50% to Indy's 50%). Given I think Tennessee will cover, I will roll with the alt spread Titan's -6.5 (+220), since their average cover margin is 10.5 and Indy's avg ATS loss margin is -10.12.

I would also consider Colts alt spread -6.5(+200) if you like Indy given the opposite is also true, when Indy covers they cover by a wide margin (+12pts & across a larger sample size of 4 games covering ATS).

My pick = TITANS -6.5(+220) for .5 Unit

Wow man I really like this. Thank you 

my numbers give me the same result

@OverAmbassador

 Thank you sir what are you taking on the game??

Tennessee brother. And the 1H over 

Love close pick em games like this. Tease the fuck out of it and you should lock it down.

Titans +7.5 with the over at 41. Total points hits the criteria mentioned above and I can’t see either team winning by more then 1 score.

@OverAmbassador

Best of Luck!! 

Im thinking about also taking Tennessee Team Total over 23.5 as well

@Slick_Jimmy

 GL to you Jimmy -I have to agree teasing the home team is the slick move (pun intended).

I am quite the sucker for a juicy alt spread dog though

After the dust settles:

0-1 (-.5 Unit)

I hope someone took the Indy -6 (+200) alt line!

a lot of write up for nothing, hey ambassador, I guess you still loving it