**** Monday Night Football ****

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

The dolphins are 30th against the pass this year and are traveling with an 0-4 record to face the New York Jets. New QB Matt Moore is expected to play as well which could be hazardous against the Jets' very good corner-backs but I like the Dolphins for a few reasons. The Jets' run defense has been very pedestrian this year and can't stop anyone. They are giving up 4.9 YPC the past 3 weeks. Vernon Carey is back in the lineup for the Dolphins this game and should be a great help opening up running lanes for Daniel Thomas. With Thomas running effectively, Matt Moore should be able to convert enough 3rd and short's to score some points. I also expect the Jets to be very flat this week. Rex Ryan had that matchup last week against the Patriots circled on his calendar as him and the Jets always give 110% effort in those games. They gave everything they had to win that game and came up short making it a very good possibility they come out flat at home against a desperate Dolphins team coming off a bye. Last year the Jets lost to the Patriots 45-3 and faced the Dolphins the next week as 5.5 point favorites. They ended up losing the game straight up. The Jets always give everything they got into beating the Patriots but when they come up short they are usually very flat the next game. Dolphins have won 4 of the last 5 against the Jets and appear to have their 'number.' I also like that the Dolphins are on the road for this one. Tony Sparano is 18-8 ATS on the road compared to 7-18 ATS at home.

One last thing...
84% of ML bets and 82% of ATS bets have came in on the Jets yet the line has dropped from -8 to -6.5. Very clear where the sharp money is on this one.

Dolphins +7

Single #227267186 (Placed by Web)(225) Miami Dolphins +7 (-105) Mon@5:35p
Competitor:(226) New York Jets

bol

This is a whole different Dolphins team buddy...They don't have Ronnie Brown and they dont run the wild cat offense....You can throw away those past numbers. Jets are hungry for a win and this game is a momentum builder for the Jets and almost a must win at home..Their Defense will be on point tonight..With that being said Jets -7 and you can take that to the bank.

Who needs the wildcat or Ronnie Brown? The Jets just gave up 130+ yards to BGE who is nothing above average. Daniel Thomas should have a solid outing.

Not to mention if the Dolphins lose comfortably you can bet Sparano will be fired as he's been on the hot seat all year. With a bye week you can bet that Dolphins coaching staff was up all night for the past 14 days coming up with a solid gameplan

Like the Dolphins also tomorrow. Good write up.

I think the Dolphin are more exciting for facing Tim Tebow than facing the Jets.

why are you so sure that Thomas's hamstring is 100%?

if he isn't 100% Bush won't run on them

why are you so sure that Thomas's hamstring is 100%?

if he isn't 100% Bush won't run on them

So you think you're one of the sharps!? The line move can mean two things, the first one you already pointed out.second,it could also mean a trap by the books. 82% public on nyj should've moved that line higher than the opening line of -9 to pull some dolphins money but nah...you're getting suckered into believing that you're getting a full touchdown is a gift.7 is what Miami will score total! Jets will quadruple that!Bol.

Date placed:
Oct 16, 2011 4:34p

3 Team Parlay #228104041 (Placed by Web) Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread NFL - WEEK 6 (224) Chicago Bears -3 (EVEN) Sun@5:30p Competitor:(223) Minnesota Vikings Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL - WEEK 6 (223) Minnesota Vikings vs. (224) Chicago Bears Over 41 (-115) Sun@5:30p Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline NFL - WEEK 6 (226) New York Jets -300 Mon@5:35p Competitor:(225) Miami Dolphins Risk US$ 128.98 to win US$ 514.05

I was thinking of taking Miami -7.5 @ 510% you think its worth a shot?

What do you mean?

 

 

 

Nice post OP.

Jets to win BUT Miami to cover with the +7.5   ( @5Dimes ).

How to you see the over/under ?

One last thing...
84% of ML bets and 82% of ATS bets have came in on the Jets yet the line has dropped from -8 to -6.5. Very clear where the sharp money is on this one.

This game is setup perfectly for the Jets to win big.  I know they have looked average but lets face it they did get beat by the Patriots and Ravens (2 top teams in AFC) and the Raiders are no slouch (although that is a bad loss)...With Matt Moore at QB the jets will load up the box.  Thomas, bush whoever will not have any daylight.  Revis will be on Marshall so the window will be small for Moore... Im sorry I just dont see where the Dolphins have a chance in this one.  I would expect a Jets win in the 31-7 area.  Maybe a late garbage TD by Miami but no where near the 7 point spread.

Exactly.  I am a firm believer Vegas does funky things with the lines to intentially confuse everyone.  Stop reading into this kind of shit and focus on the game people.

AWESOME POINT OF VIEW I THROW PAST STATS OUT THE WINDOW AND FOCUS ON THE REAL!!!! ISSUE AT HAND M,O,N,E,Y, ITS PRIME TIME AND IF ALL THE MONEY IS ON THE JETS 82% OR SUCH I WOULD TOALLY AGREE TAKE THE DOLPHINS BUT AS WE ALL KNOW VEGAS WILL GIVE THE PUBLIC A FEW PRIME TIMERS THEN SUTTLY TAKE IT ALL BACK AND MORE NEXT WEEK !!! I FEEL IN THIS GAME YOU SIMPLY TAKE THE BETTER TEAM JETS AND BET IT LIGHT THERES BETTER GAMES THIS WEEK TO UNLOAD  BUT GREAT ANAYLIS GOOD LUCK BROTHER IM SIMPLY TAKING THE JETS  BUT THE DOLPHINS VERY WELL COULD GET BEAT BY 9 OR WIN BY 4  ENJOY

 

 

 

Jets covers no more than -9.5 that's why miami sharp money no matter how big wont make the line move.have fun crossing your fingers Miami backers.

jets BIG 

with all that 82% on jets,you'd think that the line moved in favor of Miami -10.5 at least. books are out to get your money.

I have cashed many times over the last few seasons with Miami as a live road dog however I'm having a hard time putting my faith in that team right now. The best thing going for Dolphins backers is the fact that the Jets have sucked as well lately. There are two teams who are playing thier asses off (joke) for a shot at some Luck next season... Miami and Indy.

Now back to this MNF game... The best bet on the board for this one is Under 42.5 points. There is no way I'd wanna watch this and hope for an ATS cover by EITHER team... just sit back and enjoy the fact that they both suck and watch as they kick FG's all night in route to a cashing UNDER 42.5 pt game.

My guesstimate is NYJets-16(3 FG's and 1 TD) Miami-9(3 FG's)... That means that one FG more either way will decide the ATS cover since odds are it will not end exactly as I guesstimate at 16-9.

Good Luck LeagueCapper

great analysis  but stick to your guns Miami covering +7 or may upsets the jets out right period   g.l.