I'll take your best argument, THE NUMBERS DONT LIE

I am sure there is a site to scrape this data, I am not savvy enough to find it.  So, I went through week by week and here is what I came up with:

In the NFL this year, there have been 78 "Coin Flip" games.

Coin Flip game (for me) is a line of 3 points or less.  The info below is from SBR utilizing the first column for convenience which was Fan Duel.  Most of the other books were comparable, but it is always possible book dependent a point here and hook there may be different for some.

Of the 78 "coin flip" games:

41 times the favorite covers the number

29 times the dog wins outright

5 times the dog loses, but covers the number

3 times the number pushes.

If you like favorites, play favorites but lay the points.  The point of this post is that if you like the dog play them on the ML rather than taking points.

Someone else can double check my math but on the ML dogs, if you played $100 per unit $3400 @ +130 would return you $4420 - $500 (dog covers but loses) = $3920.  Versus taking the points and winning 34 times @ -110 which would return $3090.  I will continue to scream, yell, and beat my head against the wall trying to squeeze us some value of the books.  Too much emphasis on winning percentage while sacrificing ROI which is really the number that matters.  At the numbers above you've lowered your break even from 52.4 down to 43.4.

It's your money and you can play it how you want and for whatever reason.  But stop with this "I don't want to get burned by 1 point" or "Last week such and such" as it just doesn't happen enough to worry.  AND FOR GOD'S SAKE STOP BUYING HOOKS.

My two cents on all of this, but it has served me well.  BOL in week 13.

First off....  Thanks for taking the time to make this kind of post.  There is very little of this these days here - and I for one value it and think it is way more important and has more potential than picks posts.

I like what you say about ROI vs %.  Profit is the only thing that matters.  And in this game, any place you can squeeze pennies to make more profit is worth the effort.  It is always easier to save a dollar than to make a dollar.

One thing to add to your work....  It is often easier to find a lower house hold (spread in price between two options) on spreads than MLs.  For example - at lowvig they deal a 10 cent line on spreads, but often a 22 cent line on MLs.  This certainly doesnt disprove anything you say above.  It is just something to be aware of.

Any thread that gets vanzack up off his yacht to post in is fine by me

And I completely agree with this post...not that there's anything wrong with that

As stated, this is the type of thinking that is or has been lacking from this site for some time...very few understand or even think this way any longer...it's missed

HD and line < 3.5 and season > 2013

(202-190-19) 51.5%  Last 10 years of HOME DOGS of less than 3.5.

Supports the ml wager versus spread assuming juice is OK

I respect you trying to seek a way to save profits or earn them, and then share them with the forum. Great!
But in your example there are a few flaws ..... This is NOT an attack/flame/insult ....it is a friendly response to make corrections....

First, in your math example it should NOT be $3400 @ +130 then subtracting the 5 ML dogs that covered ATS but lost ML
What you are in effect doing is counting those 5 (twice!) first with the 29 winners, then subtracting them. That's a false net of 0.
         It should be 29 wins x +130 = +3770  (not 34 wins x +130)
        subtracting those 5 ML losers =  -500
         .................for a net profit of +3270   (not $3920)

Yes, this is still better than $3090 betting ATS, but far from the $3920 profit you quoted.

Second, you've assumed a mean avg of +130 for the small DOGS. But from my review,
the mean avg for small DOGS getting pts between +0.5 and +3 (per your example) but then playing them on the ML is nowhere near +130....it's actually between +121 and +122 mean avg, but I am rounding up to +122. (More accurate would be using +121.5)
      So that changes the numbers even more!
      29 wins X +122 = +3538
      minus 5 losers  =    - 500
      for a net profit of   +3038    (not $3920)

The more realistic $3038 betting ML dogs compares with $3090 betting ATS dogs.  Not much diff but ATS is the clear winner (not the ML dogs)

Third, and this is a biggie caveat, this is a small sample size. Variance in numbers over an extended period can be quite significant. So big "grain of salt" with any conclusions from these small numbers either way 

**Additionally, the small dogs from the first few weeks of any season are shaky guesses on limited information.  Small dog lines that occur after week 4 are reflective of each team's level of play evaluation thru 3 - 4 games.  I would not trust numbers from the first few weeks and how those stats might influence decision making when the lines are much more solid in later weeks, and MANY cappers avoid them altogether for this reason.

@unplucked_gem

 Thanks. These kind of posts have popped up here n there over the years. Definitely a rare occurrence. 

Even after reading your post, which makes perfect sense, there are those who still can't resist buying the hook. It pains me seeing -120, -125, or -130 on spreads.

To each their own

Thats why I keep a units record with my win %. My bottom line ( Profit/ ROI) is what is important to me at the end of the day / season

Let me clarify , the SU data is 994-709 or 58.4%, DOG money line very much the PLAY!

  Ooops....rechecking my own work I see I made errors too, including I forgot to include those 3 pushes, which makes it even more in favor of going ATS rather than ML.... 

Of your 78 "coin flip" games:
•  41 times the fav covers the number
•  29 times the dog wins outright
•  5 times the dog loses ML, but covers the number ATS
•  3 times the number pushes.

The 3 times the fav line pushes(1, 2, or 3 pt spreads) would mean the DOG player betting ATS would also push, for a net of zero ......but the ML dog would have LOST all 3

So, disregarding the 41 times the fav covers the numbers, which is an equal number of losses for either the ML DOG bettor or the ATS DOG bettor, we get this math:

ATS DOG player: (ie, bet $100 to win $90.91)
29 outright winners X $90.91  = +$3538.00
5 lose but cover ATS X $90.91 = +$ 454.55
3 times the line pushes ATS    = + 0
==============================

                                                   = $3992

Moneyline DOG player: (ie, bet $100 to win avg +$122)
29 outright winners X +$122 avg  = + $3538.00
5 cover ATS, but lose ML! X -$100  =  - $500.00
3 pushes ATS are all ML losers!      =  - $300.00
==================================
                                                          = $2738

So ML dog bettor $2738 vs. ATS dog player $3992

I'll argue with you. You said, "numbers don't lie"?  Have you paid any attention to the presidential elections, or better yet, to any elections??? Probably around 85% of any elections, mayor, City council, judge, presidential etc? The numbers lie all the time.

DISREGARD. SORRY

HD and line < 3.5 and season > 2013

shows (185-217-3) 45.% SU winners, supporting fubah2's conclusions!!

Yes, the math was off so thanks for that.  I do think you are taking liberties with the numbers in the sense that my book (Sugarhouse PA) todays "coin flips"

ATL / JETS.  Jets on the ML was +125 and for the 3 points -117

DEN / HOU.  Denver was +138 on the ML and for the 3 points -108

PHL / SF.  Philly was +130 on the ML and for the 3 points -118

So you can get the + numbers I posted and the juice numbers were quite liberal.

We will continue to track as the season progresses and do a wrap up.

Ongoing monitoring of the thesis, but today's coin flips and spreads (per my book Sugarhouse PA).  

Bucs ML +112 and -110 for the +2

Jags ML -103 and -113 for the +1.5

Chicago ML +143 and -105 for the +3

Colts ML +112 and -106 for the +2.5

LV ML +125 and -106 for the+2.5

Denver ML +125 and -115 for the +3

Buffalo ML -107 and -112 for the +1

Eagles ML +150 and -115 for the +3

Last weeks coin flips went:

4 favorites covering

4 dogs winning straight up

0 dogs losing but covering.

If you'd played only Spreads, you'd be behind last week.

This week's coin flips:

Chicago +125 ML and -105 for the +2.5

Houston +143 ML and -105 for the +3

Carolina +128 ML and -114 for the +3

Dallas +107 ML and -110 for +2

Jax +143 ML and -108 for the +3

Seattle +143 ML and -105 for the +3

Lines pulled from Sugarhouse PA my local book.  If you're new here, the theory goes if you like a dog leave the points with the book.  Few more weeks and we'll have the "complete sample size"