I am sure there is a site to scrape this data, I am not savvy enough to find it. So, I went through week by week and here is what I came up with:
In the NFL this year, there have been 78 "Coin Flip" games.
Coin Flip game (for me) is a line of 3 points or less. The info below is from SBR utilizing the first column for convenience which was Fan Duel. Most of the other books were comparable, but it is always possible book dependent a point here and hook there may be different for some.
Of the 78 "coin flip" games:
41 times the favorite covers the number
29 times the dog wins outright
5 times the dog loses, but covers the number
3 times the number pushes.
If you like favorites, play favorites but lay the points. The point of this post is that if you like the dog play them on the ML rather than taking points.
Someone else can double check my math but on the ML dogs, if you played $100 per unit $3400 @ +130 would return you $4420 - $500 (dog covers but loses) = $3920. Versus taking the points and winning 34 times @ -110 which would return $3090. I will continue to scream, yell, and beat my head against the wall trying to squeeze us some value of the books. Too much emphasis on winning percentage while sacrificing ROI which is really the number that matters. At the numbers above you've lowered your break even from 52.4 down to 43.4.
It's your money and you can play it how you want and for whatever reason. But stop with this "I don't want to get burned by 1 point" or "Last week such and such" as it just doesn't happen enough to worry. AND FOR GOD'S SAKE STOP BUYING HOOKS.
My two cents on all of this, but it has served me well. BOL in week 13.