I though about it all week and I have a play on the Panthers at Giants. Comprehensive write-up.

Last 24 picks: 17-7

2015 NFL record: 5-0

I'm on the Panthers and here is why:

There are holes everywhere on this team. The O-Line is in shambles. The running game is nothing to write home about and ranks near the bottom of the league in total yardage. If you shut down ODB (and I will tell you why this is possible), the receiving core is average to poor. And worst of all, the secondary is dreadful.

The Giants teams of past had a moderately solid ground game

to back up the passing game. Not the case anymore. This will all fall on Eli. I can trust Eli in Miami, but be assured, he can throw 4 INT's anywhere anytime when he falls apart.

And this defense is scary: 18.1 pts per game and 4th in the NFL. What have the Giants proven this year they can overcome a defense like this in any way? The Jets defense is a start but ultimately, they lost that game and the Panthers are leaps and bounds better than the Jets offensively and the Jets have 'leak' games where the 'same old Jets' show their true colors. They almost were that against the Giants.

So talking about history and beating the Pats in the Super Bowl and beating Denver in 1998 is trash to me. I don't have that kind of faith in this Giants team like that and when you look at what Carolina brings to the table, it's a bad match-up.

2. Shutting down ODB. Can it be done?

The Giants MAIN offensive weapon and what everyone who bets the Giants counts on...

But what about the other side of the ball: Josh Norman???

He is a premiere shutdown corner this year. Don't believe me?

Let's look at the big name receivers and the results:

DeAndre Hopkins

Mike Evans

TY Hilton

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

Hold your breath if you have the Giants because here's what he did to contain ALL of those receivers:

A COMBINED 9 receptions for 89 yards.

You read that right.

Will he completely shut down ODB? No. But he doesn't have to! If he holds him below his averages, the Giants are in big trouble as Eli won't have very many places to turn.

How is the Giants secondary going to do against a team scoring 31.6 points per game

Also, I love the JPP story. I love that he is on the field after suffering that fireworks injury. He was arguably the Giants best defensive player. Now he only has one working tackling hand. This is an issue as last week at 10-7 Giants he had the RB on a running play where the Giants blitzed, he couldn't tackle him and it resulted in a crucial TD. That almost lost the game for them. He is playing at I would say 65% capacity! And he's their best defensive player (or was at least)! Against the highest scoring offense in the league with a bad secondary behind him! Bad spot for NY.

I love the desperation angle and use it often.

But you can fade that angle too.

Carolina faced a desperate division rival last week in ATL at home.

What did they do? Smashed them 38-0 ending their playoff hopes.

They faced a game Saints team that needs every win it could get.

What did they do? Won by 3. That's an argument for the spread of +4 here right? Wrong. They scored 41 points. The Giants aren't scoring 38 points folks. Not this team. Not against the Panthers.

Before that it was Dallas on Thanksgiving. Desperation game for Dallas as the Panthers were at one point, a 1 point DOG!

33-14 Panthers in a game Dallas was never in.

Before that?

A desperate Washington team (as is every team the NFC East):

44-16.

Folks these are very disturbing victories if you are on the Giants!

All those teams could be classified as desperate and the Panthers not only won 3 of the 4, they killed 3 of the 4, two of which are in the Giants division and where the Giants get some of their victories from.

The Giants have 6 victories....

Against teams a combined 31-47 none over .500.

What about last year?

5 victories over teams with a 22-58 record with only one team finishing over .500...the Texans at 9-7.

In 2013 they only beat two 'good' teams: The 8-7-1 Packers and the 10-6 Eagles. And those teams weren't all that 'good'. They were decent. They weren't the Panthers.

You have to go all the way back to 2012....2012!!!! to see a win like the win the Giants need today:

A 38-10 win against the Packers and a win over the Niners team that reached the Super Bowl.

What does that say? The teams in recent Giant history aren't Giants killers at all!!! Not this permutation of a team...

The Panthers RB Stewart sitting does not justify this line at -4. I'm sorry. Go look at his game log.

Also, you worry about the Panther motivation to win.

Let me tell you this: This team has been called the WORST undefeated team in history and they know it. They also take the field and they are proving it against teams that are absolutely motivated to take them out in every way.

So let's put that argument to bed.

All the headlines this week? Giants over Patriots...It'll happen again. You don't think in the social media era the Panthers don't see this?

Plus they still haven't wrapped up a first round bye so why is everyone saying they won't be motivated, all with a perfect season on the line!!!

Your last argument: The Panthers schedule isn't that impressive.

Ok, but it's 13-0 record folks. Wins over Seattle and GB. Let's not poo-poo 13-0. Look at the Giants in the worst NFC East division maybe EVER and look at their wins before you throw stones!

Finally, I go outside my door and this is Giants weather. Very cold. It does disrupt opponents, I will say that.

To sum it all up:

I can't see the Giants winning and the spread is dangerous but not enough to push me off the Panthers.

The only way I see the Giants covering is if the Panthers lead by 10 and the Giants score late and ultimately lose by 3.

That is why when this line was 3.5 on 5 Dimes I bought it down to 3. But I am posting it at 4 because 3 doesn't help anyone here as it  is not available. The Giants will fight but it won't be enough and this is simply not enough points.

Can't believe the line has dropped since opening as the bettors be it sharps or squares continue to disrespect an undefeated team with a  sterling ATS record.

This is only a 2 unit play for me as the spread is dangerous and it pains me to put a personal 5-0 record on the line giving out over a FG but I have to do it. It is not Rex vs. Jets or SMU vs. Tulane but it is still a postable moderate play in its own right.

I've heard this many times before from the trolls on here with great success.

My sentiments exactly.  I have a system that picks the NYG but I will pass because of scalabrine's excellent analysis and record.

GL to scalabrine and all of his tailers.

If they do somehow pull it off though.......Brady and Bill will start game planning immediately.

I'm standing outside right now. I'm about 35 miles from the stadium.

My phone says it's 42 degrees but it doesn't feel like that. Not much wind at all and it feels close to high 40's.

So the weather isn't all that bad. Just noting it because the Giants thrive in Giants weather and now that I'm standing in it an hour and a half before kick-off it's not all that bad at all in terms of a 'disruption' for Carolina.

I checked your thread and didn't see a play on this one.

I understand completely. 

I just don't see the Giants winning this. They needed to win against the Jets and Wash and failed in both. How are the Giants going to stop Carolina from scoring through the air? I just don't see it.

It may be square to back a 13-0 team but all the talk has been about an upset, not a perfect season. This pick isn't all that square as the Giants are a national team and are responsible for the Vegas' biggest loss in the Super Bowl ever vs. the Pats in the first Of the two...because of all the Giants ML bettors!

Believe me, bettors never forget their great wins or great losses and I see this line as being too light today given that all the Giants bettors are looking for a special win today. This Giants team just doesn't have it and if ODB doesn't make an all world catch last week, what happens in that game? Could have been completely different. Can't depend on that guy to do everything week in week out.

The Giants coming off a win instead of an embarrassing loss also leads to mild overconfidence

Short work week for the Giants to prepare

@Big