See 8-8 or 9-7 this season. They play a relatively soft schedule with most of the tough games being played in Miami. The total is currently set at 6 (-129) at heritage. Thoughts?
Looking at their first 8 games, I'd be impressed if they managed to go 3-5. At NE, Buff, Sea, and at SF first 5 weeks could easily be four losses, as those are likely playoff teams yet again this year. Then they go to Denver, and get the LA teams B2B. 2-1 is the best outcome they will get, so 3-5 is probably the best start they can hope for. If they can go 2-1 in the next 3 (at Ariz, NYJ, NYJ), they might be able to think playoffs, and your bet has hope.
If they start 1-5 or maybe 2-6, they'll probably turn to Tua and the future. I don't think they have enough Offense for a Rookie to win above .500 percentage rest of the way. He will make mistakes, and your bet will sink with their lost season.
If the juice wasn't so steep I'd maybe play it, but at -129, with way too much uncertainty rebuild vs win now, I would not lay much. Good luck with whatever you do.
Appreciate the insight dyamarik. I was thinking the Phins could get to 4-4 or 3-5 in the first half. Lot of tough games early on but most of them are being played at Miami. You make great points with the uncertainty of a rebuild vs winning this season. If they were to start 1-5 and turn to Tua the bet would certainly be in big trouble.
NP. Personally, I'd like to see the AFC East become competitive again. Pats have been dominant for a long time, so will root for the Phins to go 8-8 or even 9-7. Would like to see NE miss the playoffs, as I live in the Northeast, and there are quite a few Pats fans here that have become quite cocky. And that is putting it mildly... LOL!
good luck. Hope they actually play this Fall - need something to look forward to...