Is it better to take an extra half point in the line, or a 5% lower juice? (i.e. Do you take GB +3.5 at -110, or GB + 3 at -105?) Does it depend on whether or not the half point is getting you past a key number or not? What if it were GB +1 at -110 vs. GB + 1/2 at -105? If you say to take the extra half point and pay more juice, then how many points edge with bookie A vs. bookie B would you have to get before it's worth paying bookie A a higher juice, and how much higher juice would you be willing to pay for a half point, full point, 1.5 points, whatever? I've heard that it's never worth it to 'buy points' in your favor, even if it gets you past a key number. Yet people always say that reduced juice over the long run can make a big difference in your bankroll. This is assuming that the lines are the same when you do it. Then they say to shop lines to save money over the long run. No one ever talks about what to do if the lines aren't the same and you have to decide between price vs. juice. If that's not enough, beyond just a half point difference, one must then must decide if more than a half point difference makes a higher juice worth it if the point(s) is/are in your favor. Where do you draw the lines in price vs. juice comparisons when both are different between bookies A and B?
Do I take the lowest juice or best line? For how long?
Is it better to take an extra half point in the line, or a 5% lower juice? (i.e. Do you take GB +3.5 at -110, or GB + 3 at -105?) Does it depend on whether or not the half point is getting you past a key number or not? What if it were GB +1 at -110 vs. GB + 1/2 at -105? If you say to take the extra half point and pay more juice, then how many points edge with bookie A vs. bookie B would you have to get before it's worth paying bookie A a higher juice, and how much higher juice would you be willing to pay for a half point, full point, 1.5 points, whatever? I've heard that it's never worth it to 'buy points' in your favor, even if it gets you past a key number. Yet people always say that reduced juice over the long run can make a big difference in your bankroll. This is assuming that the lines are the same when you do it. Then they say to shop lines to save money over the long run. No one ever talks about what to do if the lines aren't the same and you have to decide between price vs. juice. If that's not enough, beyond just a half point difference, one must then must decide if more than a half point difference makes a higher juice worth it if the point(s) is/are in your favor. Where do you draw the lines in price vs. juice comparisons when both are different between bookies A and B?
well -when in doubt - I play both - so If I were betting $100 on GB in your example - I might would play GB -3 at one site for $50 and then GB-3.5 at the other site.
As for "the better juice" if you can improve your win loss rate by 1-2 % over the course of the season it will matter more than "that one time" you won $95 vice $90.
I am always willing to pay -110 or minus -115 to get off a key number - if I think it's close enough It might impact my chance to win. (and it often is)
well -when in doubt - I play both - so If I were betting $100 on GB in your example - I might would play GB -3 at one site for $50 and then GB-3.5 at the other site.
As for "the better juice" if you can improve your win loss rate by 1-2 % over the course of the season it will matter more than "that one time" you won $95 vice $90.
I am always willing to pay -110 or minus -115 to get off a key number - if I think it's close enough It might impact my chance to win. (and it often is)
no way are bets that are +3 -105 are just -110 for 3.5.. I can make up stuff too...
THAT was your takeaway from this conversation!?
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no way are bets that are +3 -105 are just -110 for 3.5.. I can make up stuff too...
THAT was your takeaway from this conversation!?
![]()
Reduced vig in general is going to be the better option. The one exception would be off of 3 and 7, at least for football. I will buy off of 3 if the overall cost is $.15 or less. See below chart for fair price of buying on/off a number.
Reduced vig in general is going to be the better option. The one exception would be off of 3 and 7, at least for football. I will buy off of 3 if the overall cost is $.15 or less. See below chart for fair price of buying on/off a number.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
SPREAD FAIR PRICE
0 0.4
1 4.4
2 4.4
3 21.4
4 6.7
5 3.7
6 7.4
7 14
8 4.6
9 2.2
10 10.6
11 5.2
12 3.2
13 5.4
14 9.9
15 2.9
16 4.5
17 7.9
18 5.6
19 4.3
20 3.5
21 9.8
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
SPREAD FAIR PRICE
0 0.4
1 4.4
2 4.4
3 21.4
4 6.7
5 3.7
6 7.4
7 14
8 4.6
9 2.2
10 10.6
11 5.2
12 3.2
13 5.4
14 9.9
15 2.9
16 4.5
17 7.9
18 5.6
19 4.3
20 3.5
21 9.8
In the long run, always take the better juice.
In the long run, always take the better juice.
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