The "haven't played anyone" argument doesn't work in the NFL IMO. There are 2 or 3 really bad teams and 2 or 3 really good teams, but the rest of the league is all within 7 points of each other.
I agree with this. "Parity" is vastly underrated in the NFL. For a completely different example, the Raiders last week comes to mind. They "hadn't beaten a team with a winning record" going into the game vs the Broncos. Then they dominated them..
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:
The "haven't played anyone" argument doesn't work in the NFL IMO. There are 2 or 3 really bad teams and 2 or 3 really good teams, but the rest of the league is all within 7 points of each other.
I agree with this. "Parity" is vastly underrated in the NFL. For a completely different example, the Raiders last week comes to mind. They "hadn't beaten a team with a winning record" going into the game vs the Broncos. Then they dominated them..
As a Steelers fan, I thought this line would open up with Dallas being about a three point favorite based on how both teams have been trending. That being said, Pittsburgh plays far better at home. My big concern here though is injuries. With Heyward-Bey out, other WR's have to start playing better. Will Wheaton play? Ladarius Green? Bud Dupree?
I'm a Steeler fan myself, and I thought it would open as a (pk). Obviously you get the 3 point adjustment for the home team in NFL. DHB was never REALLY a difference maker, even though I cross my fingers every week hoping something clicks for him.... Wheaton is average at best. Eli Rodgers is the Antwan Randle El of this team... He may be the difference maker at WR.
The problem with this Steelers team is defense. THEY CAN'T STOP ANYONE!!! Terrible secondary, and it gets even more exposed because f the inability to pressure the QB on a consistent basis. They are not the same defense as the last few years and REALLY need some help there. Ezekiel Elliot is a great runner with the football. Not good, great! Dak can do some damage with his feet as well which scares me....
This game has high scores written all over it.
Over is my play here Good luck everyone
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Quote Originally Posted by XSixburghX:
As a Steelers fan, I thought this line would open up with Dallas being about a three point favorite based on how both teams have been trending. That being said, Pittsburgh plays far better at home. My big concern here though is injuries. With Heyward-Bey out, other WR's have to start playing better. Will Wheaton play? Ladarius Green? Bud Dupree?
I'm a Steeler fan myself, and I thought it would open as a (pk). Obviously you get the 3 point adjustment for the home team in NFL. DHB was never REALLY a difference maker, even though I cross my fingers every week hoping something clicks for him.... Wheaton is average at best. Eli Rodgers is the Antwan Randle El of this team... He may be the difference maker at WR.
The problem with this Steelers team is defense. THEY CAN'T STOP ANYONE!!! Terrible secondary, and it gets even more exposed because f the inability to pressure the QB on a consistent basis. They are not the same defense as the last few years and REALLY need some help there. Ezekiel Elliot is a great runner with the football. Not good, great! Dak can do some damage with his feet as well which scares me....
It actually does work though Thorpe especially with a rookie qb getting the starts. Strength of schedule is real. On the road, against a veteran team, a hall of fame qb, the best all around back in the league when healthy and a good coach, I think that means something. Has dak faced that yet? Not to this extent this sunday.The fact that everyone is on their knees with Dallas is beyond me. This team does NOT have a great defense like russ' seahawks or cams Panthers when they had their great years. Big difference. I feel the schedule wouldn't mater as much if Dallas were sound on defense but I feel they haven't seen an offense like pitt yet and that could disrupt their game plan of running if behind on the road or trying to close a game out. Any given sunday, anybody can win, I agree Thorpe but this Sunday we'll see what Dallas is all about.
Dallas has the beast all around back in the league, not Pitt......not even close. f you think Pit struggled against crappy Balt, just wait until tomorrow afternoon. Dallas travels well......
Dal 31
Pitt 17
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
It actually does work though Thorpe especially with a rookie qb getting the starts. Strength of schedule is real. On the road, against a veteran team, a hall of fame qb, the best all around back in the league when healthy and a good coach, I think that means something. Has dak faced that yet? Not to this extent this sunday.The fact that everyone is on their knees with Dallas is beyond me. This team does NOT have a great defense like russ' seahawks or cams Panthers when they had their great years. Big difference. I feel the schedule wouldn't mater as much if Dallas were sound on defense but I feel they haven't seen an offense like pitt yet and that could disrupt their game plan of running if behind on the road or trying to close a game out. Any given sunday, anybody can win, I agree Thorpe but this Sunday we'll see what Dallas is all about.
Dallas has the beast all around back in the league, not Pitt......not even close. f you think Pit struggled against crappy Balt, just wait until tomorrow afternoon. Dallas travels well......
Drinking that koolaid Charlie? I posted to you in east sides thread but I respectfully disagree with you. I think Pitt is the the one scoring in the 30s and if you think zeke is a better ALL around back than Leveon, I'm sorry, that's where we end this argument. 8 games in and you want to crown zeke and DAK already like the majority of the public? Good luck with that. Zeke, sure, DAK, not yet. Enjoy the game
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Drinking that koolaid Charlie? I posted to you in east sides thread but I respectfully disagree with you. I think Pitt is the the one scoring in the 30s and if you think zeke is a better ALL around back than Leveon, I'm sorry, that's where we end this argument. 8 games in and you want to crown zeke and DAK already like the majority of the public? Good luck with that. Zeke, sure, DAK, not yet. Enjoy the game
Drinking that koolaid Charlie? I posted to you in east sides thread but I respectfully disagree with you. I think Pitt is the the one scoring in the 30s and if you think zeke is a better ALL around back than Leveon, I'm sorry, that's where we end this argument. 8 games in and you want to crown zeke and DAK already like the majority of the public? Good luck with that. Zeke, sure, DAK, not yet. Enjoy the game
That Koolaid goes down pretty smooth when they're 7-0-1 ATS, we'll see my friend
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Drinking that koolaid Charlie? I posted to you in east sides thread but I respectfully disagree with you. I think Pitt is the the one scoring in the 30s and if you think zeke is a better ALL around back than Leveon, I'm sorry, that's where we end this argument. 8 games in and you want to crown zeke and DAK already like the majority of the public? Good luck with that. Zeke, sure, DAK, not yet. Enjoy the game
That Koolaid goes down pretty smooth when they're 7-0-1 ATS, we'll see my friend
PIT has had a tougher schedule and have the 4-4 record to show for it compared to DAL record of 7-1.
PIT has put up 184 and given up 171 points for a per game differential of +1.6 in their favor
DAL has put up 223 and given up 140 points for a per game differential of +10.4 in their favor
Give PIT +3 points for home field and using just point differentials gives us a rough spread of DAL by -5.8, yet they are getting 2.5 points for a difference of predicted vs. actual lines of 8.3 in DAL favor (even though this doesn't take into account a lot of variables it highlighted as a game to look at this week).
Conclusion, yes PIT has played a tougher schedule putting up a 4-4 record, HOWEVER the schedule was not that much tougher - if you use a simple tool like ESPN power rankings and average the opposition's power ranking you get 19.25 for DAL and 14 for PIT. Given ESPN ranks DAL at #2 and PIT at #9 if the average power ranking for opponent for PIT was 14 you would expect them to do better than a 4-4 record. There were 3 opponents PIT played with a better current power ranking which could be used to add confidence to PIT and their 4-4 record but given the 18th ranked Eagles (again ESPN power ranking) common game and PIT getting blown out in that game leads me to still lean for DAL getting points.
I like this method of capping. I'm a law of averages type myself. But do your self a favor homie...replace the ESPN ratings w/ DVOA or something a little more credible and see whatcha get
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:
Regarding +2.5 DAL @ PIT
I am leaning Dallas in this matchup
3 common opponents this season:
Dallas won all 3, PIT lost to Eagles pretty badly
28-1424-16 Bengals
27-2338-16 Skins
29-23*4-34 Eagles
PIT has had a tougher schedule and have the 4-4 record to show for it compared to DAL record of 7-1.
PIT has put up 184 and given up 171 points for a per game differential of +1.6 in their favor
DAL has put up 223 and given up 140 points for a per game differential of +10.4 in their favor
Give PIT +3 points for home field and using just point differentials gives us a rough spread of DAL by -5.8, yet they are getting 2.5 points for a difference of predicted vs. actual lines of 8.3 in DAL favor (even though this doesn't take into account a lot of variables it highlighted as a game to look at this week).
Conclusion, yes PIT has played a tougher schedule putting up a 4-4 record, HOWEVER the schedule was not that much tougher - if you use a simple tool like ESPN power rankings and average the opposition's power ranking you get 19.25 for DAL and 14 for PIT. Given ESPN ranks DAL at #2 and PIT at #9 if the average power ranking for opponent for PIT was 14 you would expect them to do better than a 4-4 record. There were 3 opponents PIT played with a better current power ranking which could be used to add confidence to PIT and their 4-4 record but given the 18th ranked Eagles (again ESPN power ranking) common game and PIT getting blown out in that game leads me to still lean for DAL getting points.
I like this method of capping. I'm a law of averages type myself. But do your self a favor homie...replace the ESPN ratings w/ DVOA or something a little more credible and see whatcha get
Well, congrats Dallas backers. Tomlin, going for 2 4 times changed the complexity of the game but zeke is a beast. DAK, he played well. Still think this team is better with romo. As for Pitt, they got too cute. I was wrong on this one. Oh well, moving on.
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Well, congrats Dallas backers. Tomlin, going for 2 4 times changed the complexity of the game but zeke is a beast. DAK, he played well. Still think this team is better with romo. As for Pitt, they got too cute. I was wrong on this one. Oh well, moving on.
I like this method of capping. I'm a law of averages type myself. But do your self a favor homie...replace the ESPN ratings w/ DVOA or something a little more credible and see whatcha get
Good point, will do.
Here are my 3 bets for the weekend, couldn't actually place any of them due to my bank back in FL doing maintenance ALL weekend, I need a Vegas bank to get cash since paying $5 per ATM withdrawal is getting OLD!
ATL @ PHI (+2)
DAL (+2.5) @ PIT
CIN @ NYG (+1)
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
I like this method of capping. I'm a law of averages type myself. But do your self a favor homie...replace the ESPN ratings w/ DVOA or something a little more credible and see whatcha get
Good point, will do.
Here are my 3 bets for the weekend, couldn't actually place any of them due to my bank back in FL doing maintenance ALL weekend, I need a Vegas bank to get cash since paying $5 per ATM withdrawal is getting OLD!
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