2016 Record: 18-6 (75%)
The Pick: Bills +160 over Patriots
The angle: You heard it all week. The Bills have made overtures to Tom Coughlin. Rex knows it. The owners know its out there. The fans knows it. Tom isn't getting the job but now that that leak has sprung, if Rex sits back and says "Come what may" it will be like putting his finger in a leak in the Hoover Dam.
If you cannot beat Jacoby Brissett today at 1-2 and you fall to 1-3, you deserve to be fired as does your brother and several others.
Yes, the Bills come in the walking wounded but they were the walking wounded last week against Arizona, and on life support, they played sensational.
Know this: Rex will throw the kitchen sink at Brissett today. He has enough blitz packages to keep the score low and steal this one today in Foxborough. And if he doesn't? He's done. That's enough motivation with a coach that has the players behind his psychologically to take the Bills here. End of story.
It's much like the Nevada game (9 am body clock, you have a bye to prepare) vs. Purdue. Lose that game and just the symbolism of loss in that spot will cost you your job. Today if you lose to a third stringer, regardless of what he did to the Texans, it will likely end your coaching career. That's much more than a game folks. It may not happen today but by the end of the year it is basically certain he is done. 1-3 teams losing to third stringers are done in terms of the playoffs.
Many here LOVE the fade the "Star Out other players Step Up" theory and that theory works...in the right situation.
We know what Brissett is. I'll take Taylor and his legs, in addition to ever increasing pressure to improve his passing game, over 17-28 for 195 yards. The star has BEEN out. This is not game one. The Pats have been functioning as one of the best teams in the league with Tom. That theory does not apply to the Pats today.
What pressure is on the Pats here? They fall to 3-1 if they lose, still have a stranglehold on this division and are getting Brady back. Mr. Hoodie would sign up for that every day of the week before the season. No major psychological edges for the Pats here.
You can't fade a wounded dog here folks. Despite what you think, the Pats are not the wounded dogs. You are not 'wounded' psychologically at 3-0. The Bills are wounded. And this is their season. And they get it against a third stringer who played admirably but still has one career start. And you have Rex to gameplan against that.
And you have to take that no matter your/like dislike of Rex because he gets his team to play for him when it matters, just like he did against Arizona last week.
Bills get a nice shot in the arm on Monday with Darues and Henderson coming off inactive. So they can get a boost here with a win and one their best coming back or lose it all. I'll bet on Rex to take it down. In the right spot, he'll come through. Today is that day. No metrics, just the psychological situation.
I don't care if this line was 7.5 at one time with Garrapolo starting. I'm fine with taking the 100% of my bet + 60%. There is not time to be fooling with spreads today. It's win it all or go home for Rex and the bettor.
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