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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Been on here 10 years... YOU guys never learn. Bears +4

    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
    Thechad10
    727magic
    Holyh3llz
    SuperSlapem
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    Thechad10
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 1:54 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

    A lot of good commentary in this thread.  So many people get wrapped up in these false ideas of certainty, and black and white situations...it's just more easy to process I guess.  But the fact is it's such a world of grey area.

    It's like if a single person tried to sue a corporation...they just bury you with all kinds of things because the corporation has no bounds on time or money in comparison to the single person and you would waste your whole life away trying to fight back.  Somewhat similar principle with Vegas...it's like they have an infinite supply of money so they can afford to take hits sometimes but still keep playing the percentages with extreme discipline in the long-run.

    They DON'T fix games so that they NEVER lose, but like some have said, I believe they have such an extensive database of info (more so than any single bettor) that they do take certain positions on games where they believe to have an advantage.  It doesn't mean they win every single time they do this but again, if it works 6 times out of 10 they can more than afford to take the hit the other 4.

    All that said I'm on Vikings ML because I got a ridiculous line at -155 and thought it was good value, no messing around with points.  It's since gone to -208 where I can see.


    gotcha, my friend.....and, i belive, reverse line movements are about 65-70% correct. So, its not a SURE thing by any means. good luck
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:

    A lot of good commentary in this thread.  So many people get wrapped up in these false ideas of certainty, and black and white situations...it's just more easy to process I guess.  But the fact is it's such a world of grey area.

    It's like if a single person tried to sue a corporation...they just bury you with all kinds of things because the corporation has no bounds on time or money in comparison to the single person and you would waste your whole life away trying to fight back.  Somewhat similar principle with Vegas...it's like they have an infinite supply of money so they can afford to take hits sometimes but still keep playing the percentages with extreme discipline in the long-run.

    They DON'T fix games so that they NEVER lose, but like some have said, I believe they have such an extensive database of info (more so than any single bettor) that they do take certain positions on games where they believe to have an advantage.  It doesn't mean they win every single time they do this but again, if it works 6 times out of 10 they can more than afford to take the hit the other 4.

    All that said I'm on Vikings ML because I got a ridiculous line at -155 and thought it was good value, no messing around with points.  It's since gone to -208 where I can see.


    gotcha, my friend.....and, i belive, reverse line movements are about 65-70% correct. So, its not a SURE thing by any means. good luck
     
    727magic
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 1:54 PM ET #27

    I think public week almost all favorite covers yesterday, stay away 
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    I think public week almost all favorite covers yesterday, stay away 
     
    Holyh3llz
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 1:56 PM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by Luca_Brasi:

    Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 Monday Night Football appearances.

    Do you know how many of those games they were dogs?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca_Brasi:

    Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 Monday Night Football appearances.

    Do you know how many of those games they were dogs?
     
    Holyh3llz
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 1:56 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by Luca_Brasi:

    Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 Monday Night Football appearances.

    How many of those were they dogs?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca_Brasi:

    Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 Monday Night Football appearances.

    How many of those were they dogs?
     
    Thechad10
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 1:57 PM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by CDJohns79:

    I just don't think smart money is on tonight's game. Of course the winning side after the fact can say "see it was easy..." However, there are too many indicators pulling in both directions. Are we forgetting The QB's tonight are Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler...I'm out

    i see what your saying. BUT, remember....MNF is when the Public tries to get their money back before Tuesday(Bookie Pay Day:)). Also, its the most bet game of the week being that is the last game on the NFL weekly slate. So, the more exposure a game has, the better chance a gambler has betting with Vegas. I am in a fantasy league were I have the Vikings defense. Trst me, I am a little worried that The Bears might beat the Vikings tonight solely based off this line movement. either way, good luck to you. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDJohns79:

    I just don't think smart money is on tonight's game. Of course the winning side after the fact can say "see it was easy..." However, there are too many indicators pulling in both directions. Are we forgetting The QB's tonight are Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler...I'm out

    i see what your saying. BUT, remember....MNF is when the Public tries to get their money back before Tuesday(Bookie Pay Day:)). Also, its the most bet game of the week being that is the last game on the NFL weekly slate. So, the more exposure a game has, the better chance a gambler has betting with Vegas. I am in a fantasy league were I have the Vikings defense. Trst me, I am a little worried that The Bears might beat the Vikings tonight solely based off this line movement. either way, good luck to you. 
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 2:07 PM ET #31

    No one's actually given any good reasoning as to why the Vikings should cover. All I hear is DEFENSE. Defense didn't win Seattle the game against NO. At least Seattle can put points up. Don't get me wrong I think Minnesota is a great team but offensively they still have a lot to prove so with Cutlers history vs this opponent I think there is great value on Chicago and this could really boil down to a field goal. We have Cutler averaging two touchdowns almost every game and that doesn't account for what other players have done or can do. Along with that they're home and Minnesota will have a backup strong safety playing against an experienced quarterback who's best attribute is probably throwing the deep ball. 

    Chicago and Over seems to be the play. Somebody give me more reasoning than that to take the Vikings. I'm really liking this play so much due to the angle I'm lookin from I may parlay it with one nba game.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    No one's actually given any good reasoning as to why the Vikings should cover. All I hear is DEFENSE. Defense didn't win Seattle the game against NO. At least Seattle can put points up. Don't get me wrong I think Minnesota is a great team but offensively they still have a lot to prove so with Cutlers history vs this opponent I think there is great value on Chicago and this could really boil down to a field goal. We have Cutler averaging two touchdowns almost every game and that doesn't account for what other players have done or can do. Along with that they're home and Minnesota will have a backup strong safety playing against an experienced quarterback who's best attribute is probably throwing the deep ball. 

    Chicago and Over seems to be the play. Somebody give me more reasoning than that to take the Vikings. I'm really liking this play so much due to the angle I'm lookin from I may parlay it with one nba game.
     
    Holyh3llz
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 2:11 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by Luca_Brasi:

    Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 Monday Night Football appearances.

    How many of those games were they dogs?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca_Brasi:

    Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 Monday Night Football appearances.

    How many of those games were they dogs?
     
    Thechad10
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 4:07 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by 727magic:

    I think public week almost all favorite covers yesterday, stay away 

    Your missing the point and obviously do not understand the whole meaning of this thread.    Do you know what a line reversal means? Jesus. You are right...most favorites covered. Completely irrelevant to the thread. thanks buddy.  Only counts when you are betting the lower percentage and with the house.....while fading the heavy public    
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    Quote Originally Posted by 727magic:

    I think public week almost all favorite covers yesterday, stay away 

    Your missing the point and obviously do not understand the whole meaning of this thread.    Do you know what a line reversal means? Jesus. You are right...most favorites covered. Completely irrelevant to the thread. thanks buddy.  Only counts when you are betting the lower percentage and with the house.....while fading the heavy public    
     
    OSO
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 4:37 PM ET #34

    TheChad clearly you will be wasting your time with majority of the people who comment here.  My advice, don't waste your time on amatuers and talk to the real people who have concerning questions.  Most people don't realize spreads are made to get 50/50 action on both sides, not what the actual spread should be.  Clearly reverse line movement here, VERY CLEARLY, public ~70ish% is on Minny, line opened 5.5 now down to 4.  Vegas is begging you to take minny just like against the eagles, although this line movement is a bit more clear.  I am not saying the bears are a sure winner tonight, but I agree its the Bears or nothing.



    Agreed here 100% and also noted this game for heavy reverse line movement.
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    TheChad clearly you will be wasting your time with majority of the people who comment here.  My advice, don't waste your time on amatuers and talk to the real people who have concerning questions.  Most people don't realize spreads are made to get 50/50 action on both sides, not what the actual spread should be.  Clearly reverse line movement here, VERY CLEARLY, public ~70ish% is on Minny, line opened 5.5 now down to 4.  Vegas is begging you to take minny just like against the eagles, although this line movement is a bit more clear.  I am not saying the bears are a sure winner tonight, but I agree its the Bears or nothing.



    Agreed here 100% and also noted this game for heavy reverse line movement.
     
    Titusblink
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 5:20 PM ET #35

    Line is back to -6 most places. I agree the reverse line movement is scary for those backing Minny but then why not keep the line low and keep taking in those sucker bets? Is the implication that the books are moving the line back just to reduce some of their exposure in case Chi doesnt cover...
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    Line is back to -6 most places. I agree the reverse line movement is scary for those backing Minny but then why not keep the line low and keep taking in those sucker bets? Is the implication that the books are moving the line back just to reduce some of their exposure in case Chi doesnt cover...
     
    wmi799
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 5:25 PM ET #36

    Could care less about line movements, who the "public" is on etc. I see two teams, one team in disarray with bad coaching, an QB who sucks. I guess you could say that about both of them versus a team playing with confidence. Like Minny and under
    Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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    Could care less about line movements, who the "public" is on etc. I see two teams, one team in disarray with bad coaching, an QB who sucks. I guess you could say that about both of them versus a team playing with confidence. Like Minny and under
     
    crazy1464
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 5:39 PM ET #37

    Pick the winning team and they cover the spread 75 % of the time. Vikings are the pick!!!!
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    Pick the winning team and they cover the spread 75 % of the time. Vikings are the pick!!!!
     
    Sandman_130
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 5:41 PM ET #38

    you people are dumb as sin. Vikings cover easy.
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    you people are dumb as sin. Vikings cover easy.
     
    datboy86
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 5:54 PM ET #39

    think your logic is wrong broski.

    If the line started at -5.5 and went down to -4 then that means too much money was on the Bears and so they raised it to -4 to make you bet on the Vikings to negate huge losses. Its all about that juice money for them.
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    think your logic is wrong broski.

    If the line started at -5.5 and went down to -4 then that means too much money was on the Bears and so they raised it to -4 to make you bet on the Vikings to negate huge losses. Its all about that juice money for them.
     
    Wizz_KIDD35
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:01 PM ET #40

     a lot of overthinking....Bradford not very good....with a good D...Bears have cutler who is just returning back...I say just stay away anything can happen...total disaster just my opinion"
    STAY HUNGRY MY FRIENDS!!!!!
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     a lot of overthinking....Bradford not very good....with a good D...Bears have cutler who is just returning back...I say just stay away anything can happen...total disaster just my opinion"
     
    thirdand10
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:01 PM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by Thechad10:

    Why do you guys think MInn is the play? 75% of the public is on the Vikings. LIne opened at -5.5 and is now at 4.

    VEGAS is begging you guys to take The Vikings.  Why is this so difficult to understand? Games are NOT fixed. Plain and simple...."Vegas has a 70% idea on what team will cover a particular spread. Why would you bet with the public when Vegas is obviously trying to get you to take the Vikings? Do you think, "The House" doesn't know that  +4 is a stupid LOW line for a shitty bears team??? My God. 


    Give me the Bears +4. Love betting WITH Vegas. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thechad10:

    Why do you guys think MInn is the play? 75% of the public is on the Vikings. LIne opened at -5.5 and is now at 4.

    VEGAS is begging you guys to take The Vikings.  Why is this so difficult to understand? Games are NOT fixed. Plain and simple...."Vegas has a 70% idea on what team will cover a particular spread. Why would you bet with the public when Vegas is obviously trying to get you to take the Vikings? Do you think, "The House" doesn't know that  +4 is a stupid LOW line for a shitty bears team??? My God. 


    Give me the Bears +4. Love betting WITH Vegas. 
     
    thirdand10
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:05 PM ET #42

    “COME ON MAN.” Chicago is on a 2-9 ATS slide overall and is 2-11 ATS at home, while under Zimmer the Vikings are 29-10. Why not just get a bunch of one dollar bills and give them out to the kids for Halloween instead of giving it to the Bookie.

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    “COME ON MAN.” Chicago is on a 2-9 ATS slide overall and is 2-11 ATS at home, while under Zimmer the Vikings are 29-10. Why not just get a bunch of one dollar bills and give them out to the kids for Halloween instead of giving it to the Bookie.

     
    Dashriprock58
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:09 PM ET #43

    Minnesota looked shaky in its 21-10 road loss at Philadelphia last week. Chicago comes in off a 26-10 loss to Green Bay last Thursday. Note that the Bears do play with “double revenge” today after dropping both to the Vikes last year.

    - Vikes’ QB Sam Bradford was 24 of 41 for 225 yards, one TD and one INT last week. His offensive line was exposed as he was sacked a total of six times. The run game leaves something to be desired, so far averaging just 74 YPG. Overall the offense is ranked 18th, posting 21.5 PPG. The strength of the team is on the defensive side of the ball as the unit is ranked No. 1 in the league in giving up just 14 PPG.

    - Chicago welcomes back starting QB Jay Cutler this week, who has only played in two game so far this season. He’s going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder today as he looks to jump start his last place offense, which averages just 15.9 PPG. The Bears also rank in the lower half on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 24.1 PPG.

    - On paper this looks like a pretty big mismatch, but “situationally,” this one sets up great for the underdog Bears. While he wasn’t at his best in the two games he did play in, getting Cutler back under center healthy at this point of the season is a big bonus for Chicago. The Vikes have another important divsion rivalry at home against the Lions next week, setting up the potential “look ahead” scenario as well for the visitors.

    - Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg.

    - The Minnesota Vikings have never been a good road favorite. How about a 3-9 SU and ATS mark since 2009. Digging deeper, they are a dreaded 0-5 SU and ATS when laying more than 3 points. Against the Bears, the Vikings are 1-2 SU and ATS as a road favorite the L3 with that one win being only by 3 points. Take the bears,like the man said.

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    Minnesota looked shaky in its 21-10 road loss at Philadelphia last week. Chicago comes in off a 26-10 loss to Green Bay last Thursday. Note that the Bears do play with “double revenge” today after dropping both to the Vikes last year.

    - Vikes’ QB Sam Bradford was 24 of 41 for 225 yards, one TD and one INT last week. His offensive line was exposed as he was sacked a total of six times. The run game leaves something to be desired, so far averaging just 74 YPG. Overall the offense is ranked 18th, posting 21.5 PPG. The strength of the team is on the defensive side of the ball as the unit is ranked No. 1 in the league in giving up just 14 PPG.

    - Chicago welcomes back starting QB Jay Cutler this week, who has only played in two game so far this season. He’s going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder today as he looks to jump start his last place offense, which averages just 15.9 PPG. The Bears also rank in the lower half on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 24.1 PPG.

    - On paper this looks like a pretty big mismatch, but “situationally,” this one sets up great for the underdog Bears. While he wasn’t at his best in the two games he did play in, getting Cutler back under center healthy at this point of the season is a big bonus for Chicago. The Vikes have another important divsion rivalry at home against the Lions next week, setting up the potential “look ahead” scenario as well for the visitors.

    - Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg.

    - The Minnesota Vikings have never been a good road favorite. How about a 3-9 SU and ATS mark since 2009. Digging deeper, they are a dreaded 0-5 SU and ATS when laying more than 3 points. Against the Bears, the Vikings are 1-2 SU and ATS as a road favorite the L3 with that one win being only by 3 points. Take the bears,like the man said.

     
    soxfann1
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:12 PM ET #44

    I believe the safest bet is the under tonight Minny is missing both starting O takles and the Bears defense is getting healthy finally The Bears game plan will be dink and dunk short passes eating clock and maybe getting 13 Points and with Minny having a lot of Offense probs of their own 20 seems tops giving us 33 or so JMHO
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    I believe the safest bet is the under tonight Minny is missing both starting O takles and the Bears defense is getting healthy finally The Bears game plan will be dink and dunk short passes eating clock and maybe getting 13 Points and with Minny having a lot of Offense probs of their own 20 seems tops giving us 33 or so JMHO
     
    RCDirect
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:22 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by sydney:

    Bad teams always find ways to lose. look at Cleveland yesterday

    Many, many years ago a sharp gambler gave me a tip that I've always followed. Never bet on bad teams. Yes, I know there are situations when it's a good bet. But if you follow that simple rule you will be ahead in the long run. The reason is simple, just as you said. Bad teams find a way to lose, even when the situation dictates otherwise. So the Bears may cover, may not but I won't have a dime on them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sydney:

    Bad teams always find ways to lose. look at Cleveland yesterday

    Many, many years ago a sharp gambler gave me a tip that I've always followed. Never bet on bad teams. Yes, I know there are situations when it's a good bet. But if you follow that simple rule you will be ahead in the long run. The reason is simple, just as you said. Bad teams find a way to lose, even when the situation dictates otherwise. So the Bears may cover, may not but I won't have a dime on them.
     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:25 PM ET #46

    Quote Originally Posted by Dashriprock58:

    Minnesota looked shaky in its 21-10 road loss at Philadelphia last week. Chicago comes in off a 26-10 loss to Green Bay last Thursday. Note that the Bears do play with “double revenge” today after dropping both to the Vikes last year.

    - Vikes’ QB Sam Bradford was 24 of 41 for 225 yards, one TD and one INT last week. His offensive line was exposed as he was sacked a total of six times. The run game leaves something to be desired, so far averaging just 74 YPG. Overall the offense is ranked 18th, posting 21.5 PPG. The strength of the team is on the defensive side of the ball as the unit is ranked No. 1 in the league in giving up just 14 PPG.

    - Chicago welcomes back starting QB Jay Cutler this week, who has only played in two game so far this season. He’s going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder today as he looks to jump start his last place offense, which averages just 15.9 PPG. The Bears also rank in the lower half on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 24.1 PPG.

    - On paper this looks like a pretty big mismatch, but “situationally,” this one sets up great for the underdog Bears. While he wasn’t at his best in the two games he did play in, getting Cutler back under center healthy at this point of the season is a big bonus for Chicago. The Vikes have another important divsion rivalry at home against the Lions next week, setting up the potential “look ahead” scenario as well for the visitors.

    - Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg.

    - The Minnesota Vikings have never been a good road favorite. How about a 3-9 SU and ATS mark since 2009. Digging deeper, they are a dreaded 0-5 SU and ATS when laying more than 3 points. Against the Bears, the Vikings are 1-2 SU and ATS as a road favorite the L3 with that one win being only by 3 points. Take the bears,like the man said.


    Interesting Write-up
    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dashriprock58:

    Minnesota looked shaky in its 21-10 road loss at Philadelphia last week. Chicago comes in off a 26-10 loss to Green Bay last Thursday. Note that the Bears do play with “double revenge” today after dropping both to the Vikes last year.

    - Vikes’ QB Sam Bradford was 24 of 41 for 225 yards, one TD and one INT last week. His offensive line was exposed as he was sacked a total of six times. The run game leaves something to be desired, so far averaging just 74 YPG. Overall the offense is ranked 18th, posting 21.5 PPG. The strength of the team is on the defensive side of the ball as the unit is ranked No. 1 in the league in giving up just 14 PPG.

    - Chicago welcomes back starting QB Jay Cutler this week, who has only played in two game so far this season. He’s going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder today as he looks to jump start his last place offense, which averages just 15.9 PPG. The Bears also rank in the lower half on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 24.1 PPG.

    - On paper this looks like a pretty big mismatch, but “situationally,” this one sets up great for the underdog Bears. While he wasn’t at his best in the two games he did play in, getting Cutler back under center healthy at this point of the season is a big bonus for Chicago. The Vikes have another important divsion rivalry at home against the Lions next week, setting up the potential “look ahead” scenario as well for the visitors.

    - Going back, Chicago is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game while going 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread. The Vikings meanwhile are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams averaging 17 or fewer ppg.

    - The Minnesota Vikings have never been a good road favorite. How about a 3-9 SU and ATS mark since 2009. Digging deeper, they are a dreaded 0-5 SU and ATS when laying more than 3 points. Against the Bears, the Vikings are 1-2 SU and ATS as a road favorite the L3 with that one win being only by 3 points. Take the bears,like the man said.


    Interesting Write-up
     
    choiOi
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:26 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by RCDirect:


    Many, many years ago a sharp gambler gave me a tip that I've always followed. Never bet on bad teams. Yes, I know there are situations when it's a good bet. But if you follow that simple rule you will be ahead in the long run. The reason is simple, just as you said. Bad teams find a way to lose, even when the situation dictates otherwise. So the Bears may cover, may not but I won't have a dime on them.

    Well said 
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    Quote Originally Posted by RCDirect:


    Many, many years ago a sharp gambler gave me a tip that I've always followed. Never bet on bad teams. Yes, I know there are situations when it's a good bet. But if you follow that simple rule you will be ahead in the long run. The reason is simple, just as you said. Bad teams find a way to lose, even when the situation dictates otherwise. So the Bears may cover, may not but I won't have a dime on them.

    Well said 
     
    FlytheW
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:50 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by Thechad10:

    Quote Originally Posted by sailorman1965:

    No way ! The Vikings will destroy the Bears by 32-10
    That  makes sense. That's why Vegas made the line low...to lose money. lolmore and more keep taking the vikings. yet, vegas keeps lowering the line.DO you belive Vegas just gives away free money, Sailor man?. Why would the line be dropping if Vegas knew the vikings would hammer the bears?

    You have it all figured out huh? If only it was this easy for every game.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thechad10:

    Quote Originally Posted by sailorman1965:

    No way ! The Vikings will destroy the Bears by 32-10
    That  makes sense. That's why Vegas made the line low...to lose money. lolmore and more keep taking the vikings. yet, vegas keeps lowering the line.DO you belive Vegas just gives away free money, Sailor man?. Why would the line be dropping if Vegas knew the vikings would hammer the bears?

    You have it all figured out huh? If only it was this easy for every game.
     
    mcorcoran3
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:53 PM ET #49

    Quote Originally Posted by loserforeverz:

    I bet you would have thought Buffalo would have covered yesterday too. 

    Sure, the book and the sharps don't always win. But they did well  SEA. The week before they won with PHI. Overall short home dogs with little public support and reverse line movement is more likely to win than lose.

    But they still are going to lose about 40 percent of the time or more. OVer time betting against reverse line movement is smart. Choosing a random outlier like NE yesterday, doesn't make this untrue.

    But it isn't as simple as OP makes it. If betting against the public was always the play, we would all be rich. But, by in large, I don't want to be on a team that has 80 percent of the tickets and reverse line movement. Sometimes I make exceptions, but it isn't a position you want to be in often
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    Quote Originally Posted by loserforeverz:

    I bet you would have thought Buffalo would have covered yesterday too. 

    Sure, the book and the sharps don't always win. But they did well  SEA. The week before they won with PHI. Overall short home dogs with little public support and reverse line movement is more likely to win than lose.

    But they still are going to lose about 40 percent of the time or more. OVer time betting against reverse line movement is smart. Choosing a random outlier like NE yesterday, doesn't make this untrue.

    But it isn't as simple as OP makes it. If betting against the public was always the play, we would all be rich. But, by in large, I don't want to be on a team that has 80 percent of the tickets and reverse line movement. Sometimes I make exceptions, but it isn't a position you want to be in often
     
     
    FlytheW
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    Posted: Oct. 31, 2016 - 6:53 PM ET #50

    Quote Originally Posted by LuckyBowl95:

    doesnt cutler have a broken arm?
    hahha no! He had a bad thumb tho and is coming back early. Sports radio here in Chicago are saying he's not ready

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    Quote Originally Posted by LuckyBowl95:

    doesnt cutler have a broken arm?
    hahha no! He had a bad thumb tho and is coming back early. Sports radio here in Chicago are saying he's not ready

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