I’d like to know if I’m approaching this with the correct mindset. Along with my usual weekly wagers I participate in a high stakes pick’em pool (ATS) with weekly and season long prizes. I take a similar approach to all of my wagers.
1. Use multiple avenues to handicap games (personal power ratings, professional power ratings, +EV)
2. Line shopping (best price, best number)
3. Betting early and attempting to find CLV
My questions to some of the more experienced guys on covers are these-
1. In a pick’em pool should all picks be considered (+100/-100) even money wagers? As a correct pick =1 point and technically no vig is paid on a wrong pick.
2. The lines on each game are out and locked on Tuesday of every week. This gives me an opportunity to get excellent CLV. Should this be a determining factor on a selection?
Ex: pool spread is Phi-6.5/Dal +6.5
Actual closing line Phi-8 -110 (give or take)
Does it make sense that the mindset is the opportunity to bet (select) Phi -6.5 at +100? In which case Phi must be the play. My personal opinion would have been to take Dallas +8.5 -110 in a real wager. But with the opportunity to play Philly-6.5 with no implied vig I selected Philly and took a loss.
For those of you who understand what I’m getting at, is this the logical way to approach this type of gambling situation? FYI I took a beating in this pool last year taking underdogs, even by taking advantage of better lines in a majority of games.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I’d like to know if I’m approaching this with the correct mindset. Along with my usual weekly wagers I participate in a high stakes pick’em pool (ATS) with weekly and season long prizes. I take a similar approach to all of my wagers.
1. Use multiple avenues to handicap games (personal power ratings, professional power ratings, +EV)
2. Line shopping (best price, best number)
3. Betting early and attempting to find CLV
My questions to some of the more experienced guys on covers are these-
1. In a pick’em pool should all picks be considered (+100/-100) even money wagers? As a correct pick =1 point and technically no vig is paid on a wrong pick.
2. The lines on each game are out and locked on Tuesday of every week. This gives me an opportunity to get excellent CLV. Should this be a determining factor on a selection?
Ex: pool spread is Phi-6.5/Dal +6.5
Actual closing line Phi-8 -110 (give or take)
Does it make sense that the mindset is the opportunity to bet (select) Phi -6.5 at +100? In which case Phi must be the play. My personal opinion would have been to take Dallas +8.5 -110 in a real wager. But with the opportunity to play Philly-6.5 with no implied vig I selected Philly and took a loss.
For those of you who understand what I’m getting at, is this the logical way to approach this type of gambling situation? FYI I took a beating in this pool last year taking underdogs, even by taking advantage of better lines in a majority of games.
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