A big 1H play

Patriots 1H pk(-105) *4.20/4.00

@Betonline 

Won't go over much but will post some 1H #'s and coaching trends shortly. 

The Patriots in the 1H this year are 12-1 SU.

PS=16.15, PA=10.07, avg margin +6.08

At home:

6-1 SU, PS=17, PA=10.20, avg margin +8.15

Last 5:

5-0 SU, PS=19.20, PA=10.20, avg margin +9

The Bills in the 1H are 5-7-1 SU

PS=12.46, PA=13.46, avg margin -1.00

On the road:

2-4 SU, PS=10.83, PA=11.66, avg margin -0.83

Now for those who argue that the Patriots "have played no one". Is the Bills schedule really that much harder? Sagarin has the Pats schedule #32, and the Bills #28. It's the NFL and both teams have played 13 games against professional football teams. As a matter of fact, the common opponents between these 2 teams are plentiful. 

Here's some 1H #'s comparing their common opponents. 

Patriots 7-1 SU

PS=17.25, PA=11.75, avg margin +5.5

Bills 4-4-1 SU

PS=12.11, PA=12.77, avg margin -0.66

We know that they've already played each other in Buffalo. The Patriots won the 1H 6-3

Coaching. This is a big one for me.

Mike Vrabel after a bye in the 1H is 5-0-1 SU as a head coach of the Tennessee Titans(2018-2023).

PS=13.16, PA=5.00, avg margin +8.16

The tie was in 2018 as a rookie HC. He posted 2 shutouts. One of the games was vs Buffalo where McDermott was the coach, and Josh Allen was the qb. Vrabel won 21-10.

I've been reading and looking up a lot of Josh McDaniels stuff lately. Don't laugh(you can if you want), but I'm finding a lot of parallels between Drake Maye and Tom Brady. And there's one guy in the equation who is the common denominator, their OC.

McDaniels was the qb coach simultaneously while the offensive coordinator with the Pats for years. Should we question the results of the Patriots dynasty at this point? Sure he failed with the Broncos and Raiders as the HC, but he's right back where it all started, where he's comfortable in a roll that he's good at.

I looked up all the Patriots 1H #'s following a bye week while McDaniels was the OC.

7-5-1 SU, PS=14.07

3 losses were vs very good non conference playoff teams. The 2013 Panthers, scored only 3. The 2016 Seahawks legion of boom, scored 14. And the 2019 Eagles scoring only 9, losing 9-10. They lost in 2020 and 2021 where the Belichick era was dissolving. Tom Brady moved on to Tampa and the Patriots turned to Cam Newton, Jared Stidham, Brian Hoyer, and rookie Mac Jones in 2021.

What McDaniels has now in 2nd year Drake Maye is something special, and it's something new. With a HC who also has new life, who should of never been fired from the Titans imo.

Good Luck guys 

great info thanks, and BOL

@undermysac

 Good luck!

Good luck Sac.  

go get 'em Sac!

Thank you for the info!

GL 

Thanks guys, gonna need it.

Here's the dvoa podcast, just started it this morning. They talk about Bills/Pats at the 16:38 mark.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-schatz-tanier-nfl-podcast/id1706356164