2025 FUTURES

1. AFC SOUTH winner....HOUSTON +110 (2%)

2. HOUSTON over 9.5 wins +105 (1.5%)

3. AFC  winner HOUSTON +1500 (.5%)

4. NFC SOUTH winner ATLANTA +240 (1.5%)

5. ATLANTA over 7.5 wins -120 (2%)

6. DENVER over 9.5 wins +110 (1.5%)

7. DIV winner DENVER +400 (1%)

Not a fan of tying up 8% of bankroll on futures but I see VALUE!...................................gl

Adding,

OVER 8 wins for NE Patriots  (2%)

Pulled the trigger NE over 7.5 wins -140

Done some significant research on TOM (turnover margins)  that suggests the outliers + or - (10 or more)

in net turnovers are +EV to regress the following year. Where you can find this years win total going the

opposite way triggers a +EV play.

BUFF/LAC/PHIL had their win totals increase despite their massive TOM

JAX/TENN/CLEV had their win totals decrease despite their horrendous TOM

I will throw a 1.5% play on;

BUFF under 11.5

LAC under 9.5

PHIL under 11.5

JAX over 7.5

TENN over 5.5

CLEV over 4.5

With you on ATL, JAX 

I think Houston has value and worth a shot 

@ jowchoo

You most of liked that query I had with the (TO). Think I got another one for you, will get back to ya.

Cancelling the UNDER 11.5 BUFFALO wins.

This season has me more invested in FUTURES than at any time in last 10 years!!

Have you considered for a moment how the QB influences those outcomes ?   You act as though TOs happen by happenstance.  

You act as though TOs happen by happenstance.....OK

Let's see if if I show a profit and ii you withdraw your weak observation.

 You may win your over bets, but it's not due to some "regression to the mean."  If you had the same bozos throwing the football for CLE, JAX, TEN this year as you did for the majority of last year, well,  you'd likely have more dismal performance, and bad TO margins.  And what do bad TO margins lead to ?  More losses.   Do you really think of winning football when you have DTR, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones, Will Levis, and Mason Rudolph leading the charge ? 

What's ironic is that you may win your bets , but you're completely disregarding how the incoming QBs influence these TO outcomes.   And TEN looks most problematic , because you are guaranteed to start a rookie QB mated to a poorly run franchise, with an unimpressive head coach in Callahan.  

Also, just a note when it comes to Turnover Margins.  Certainly, the defense plays a part in the final result, but I put a greater premium on the QB's performance that influences the final outcome.  

Last season HOU had the #4-rated passing DEF according to NFL.com.  If they have improved their horrible OFF line, C.J. Stroud could bounce back and HOU might surprise.  That off-year provides a juicy price.

Good luck.

oh wow, you see 9-8 season for New England? Could be a great call… GL brutha 

I like Atlanta to win the NFC South. I think we've seen Baker's ceiling. We don't know what Penix's is yet. Could be lower than those first few games he played, but what if it's much higher?