Scal, I think Warriors win this game and the 1st quarter is the way to go. The Cavs needed a couple of miracles to come back and win last year (I am talking Green suspension and Bogut injury) against a gimpy Curry, no way they do it this time. Losing game 6 was very painful last year (if you recall) and then they lost a close one in the regular season. The Cavs made history against the Warriors last year, and the Warriors will make history this year as they go undefeated: 16-0
But I am not watching these games. As I told you when the Warriors got Durant, this not interesting or exciting for me. Might as well watch reruns of the Globetrotters and Generals!
BTW, the only Warrior home playoff game (or any playoff game) this year where they did not win by more than 4 was the game I bet on. Nice, eh? How is that for luck?
Thanks guys. Lots of consensus here. That's what tradition brings.
BB, you're seriously not watching the NBA Finals? We all go through a lot here, being gamblers, degenerates of sorts. I know depression runs deep here. When you stop watching the team you love (even one that betrayed you by taking away the fun, home-grown team by courting/signing KD), especially someone as dedicated as yourself, I gotta think there is more going on than just hate for the Warriors have become.
But it really is just a principled stance not to watch them, more power to you! Glad to see you like the quarter bet and I knew you wouldn't be on the full game line.
When I saw Curry toy with Lebron running circles around him (in the third Q I believe) I was not messing with the full game line. Win a quarter, particularly the first yes. Full game no. And I defer to you on that one.
Scal, I think Warriors win this game and the 1st quarter is the way to go. The Cavs needed a couple of miracles to come back and win last year (I am talking Green suspension and Bogut injury) against a gimpy Curry, no way they do it this time. Losing game 6 was very painful last year (if you recall) and then they lost a close one in the regular season. The Cavs made history against the Warriors last year, and the Warriors will make history this year as they go undefeated: 16-0
But I am not watching these games. As I told you when the Warriors got Durant, this not interesting or exciting for me. Might as well watch reruns of the Globetrotters and Generals!
BTW, the only Warrior home playoff game (or any playoff game) this year where they did not win by more than 4 was the game I bet on. Nice, eh? How is that for luck?
Thanks guys. Lots of consensus here. That's what tradition brings.
BB, you're seriously not watching the NBA Finals? We all go through a lot here, being gamblers, degenerates of sorts. I know depression runs deep here. When you stop watching the team you love (even one that betrayed you by taking away the fun, home-grown team by courting/signing KD), especially someone as dedicated as yourself, I gotta think there is more going on than just hate for the Warriors have become.
But it really is just a principled stance not to watch them, more power to you! Glad to see you like the quarter bet and I knew you wouldn't be on the full game line.
When I saw Curry toy with Lebron running circles around him (in the third Q I believe) I was not messing with the full game line. Win a quarter, particularly the first yes. Full game no. And I defer to you on that one.
Warriors are hungry for vengeance this year. They remember blowing out Cleveland in G1 and G2 but losing G3 and ultimately the series.
I completely agree that taking the 0-2 team in a home G3 1Q is traditionally a great bet. I just think the sting of GS losing LY despite the 2-0 lead will greatly motivate them for G3 this year. It's the same motivation
You are more talking about the game line. 1st Quarter lines really don't apply to what you are saying. The Cavs must win the first quarter to even have a shot to win the game and could still very well lose it. But that most certainly doesn't mean they won't win it.
Warriors are hungry for vengeance this year. They remember blowing out Cleveland in G1 and G2 but losing G3 and ultimately the series.
I completely agree that taking the 0-2 team in a home G3 1Q is traditionally a great bet. I just think the sting of GS losing LY despite the 2-0 lead will greatly motivate them for G3 this year. It's the same motivation
You are more talking about the game line. 1st Quarter lines really don't apply to what you are saying. The Cavs must win the first quarter to even have a shot to win the game and could still very well lose it. But that most certainly doesn't mean they won't win it.
I need to make my bet in a couple of hours so i dont have much time.
But to your points, what about the warriors being the best 1st quarter team in the league, (bunker mentality) on the road in a game they lost by 30 last year, who blew a 3-1 lead?
Won't they come out guns blazing at least the same as the cavs will, but only with bigger guns?
Don't worry about guns a blazin' in Cleveland. It could happen based on pure talent but the motivational scale FAR tips in Cleveland's favor (and they have the skill that just needs to wake up...I'm talking to you JR and the entire bench).
I need to make my bet in a couple of hours so i dont have much time.
But to your points, what about the warriors being the best 1st quarter team in the league, (bunker mentality) on the road in a game they lost by 30 last year, who blew a 3-1 lead?
Won't they come out guns blazing at least the same as the cavs will, but only with bigger guns?
Don't worry about guns a blazin' in Cleveland. It could happen based on pure talent but the motivational scale FAR tips in Cleveland's favor (and they have the skill that just needs to wake up...I'm talking to you JR and the entire bench).
Please reread the Rest and Relaxation bullet from the Game 1 thread. It applies fully to this bet.
I posit this "road trip" (and given the Warriors have been home for what seems like forever, this is a trip of sorts) particularly the underlined paragraph below, is a shock to the Warriors system and further, would not that shock be its strongest in the first quarter??
The Warriors are immensely well-rested and stay at home, where they've been for quite some time:
Golden State has played 11 of their final 16 games at home, including 6 of their last 7 to end the regular season. They played the absolute minimum on the road by sweeping every single team in the playoffs. Since March 30th, including the playoffs, they've made just 4 road trips: Phoenix, Portland, Utah, and San Antonio.
By the time they leave for Cleveland in Game 3 of the Finals, it will be the first time they've stepped foot in the Eastern time Zone in NINETY FOUR DAYS and they'll have spent only 13 of the prior SIXTY EIGHT DAYS outside of the Bay Area.
That explains why this team is 27-1 SU and 21-7 ATS in their last 28. Being home matters. Familiar surroundings matter. Less wear and tear matters. That is why spreads shift so much for those instances when they occur.
The Warriors have essentially gotten the NBA's version of a Swedish Massage in terms of travel since March 30th.
Please reread the Rest and Relaxation bullet from the Game 1 thread. It applies fully to this bet.
I posit this "road trip" (and given the Warriors have been home for what seems like forever, this is a trip of sorts) particularly the underlined paragraph below, is a shock to the Warriors system and further, would not that shock be its strongest in the first quarter??
The Warriors are immensely well-rested and stay at home, where they've been for quite some time:
Golden State has played 11 of their final 16 games at home, including 6 of their last 7 to end the regular season. They played the absolute minimum on the road by sweeping every single team in the playoffs. Since March 30th, including the playoffs, they've made just 4 road trips: Phoenix, Portland, Utah, and San Antonio.
By the time they leave for Cleveland in Game 3 of the Finals, it will be the first time they've stepped foot in the Eastern time Zone in NINETY FOUR DAYS and they'll have spent only 13 of the prior SIXTY EIGHT DAYS outside of the Bay Area.
That explains why this team is 27-1 SU and 21-7 ATS in their last 28. Being home matters. Familiar surroundings matter. Less wear and tear matters. That is why spreads shift so much for those instances when they occur.
The Warriors have essentially gotten the NBA's version of a Swedish Massage in terms of travel since March 30th.
With the line you got cleveland has to be leading at the end of the quarter. A tie pushes. I agree with the idea of coming home down 2-0 and the first quarter play because of that but with the very low amount of time that the cavs have lead in the series I myself can't feel confident with making the play. Then the fact that LeBron has had his struggles playing at home it could take him a quarter or 2 to get warmed up. Game 3 versus Boston he was 1 of 5 with 2 turnovers in the first quarter. But I will mention that Cleveland still won that quarter by 11 points although versus a far more inferior team than the Warriors. In my opinion the first quarter bet is going to come down to if GS comes out in a groove or if it will take them some time to get going. In this situation though if I was rooting for Cleveland I don't know how much I'd like my chances with Lue as my coach. I won't be on either team first quarter though so I really hope you do cash in Scal! BOL man!
With the line you got cleveland has to be leading at the end of the quarter. A tie pushes. I agree with the idea of coming home down 2-0 and the first quarter play because of that but with the very low amount of time that the cavs have lead in the series I myself can't feel confident with making the play. Then the fact that LeBron has had his struggles playing at home it could take him a quarter or 2 to get warmed up. Game 3 versus Boston he was 1 of 5 with 2 turnovers in the first quarter. But I will mention that Cleveland still won that quarter by 11 points although versus a far more inferior team than the Warriors. In my opinion the first quarter bet is going to come down to if GS comes out in a groove or if it will take them some time to get going. In this situation though if I was rooting for Cleveland I don't know how much I'd like my chances with Lue as my coach. I won't be on either team first quarter though so I really hope you do cash in Scal! BOL man!
My concern for this bet is that GSW remembers being up big last year and G3 is the start of their undoing. Last year makes the W's take less for granted especially for the Finals then they otherwise might.
My concern for this bet is that GSW remembers being up big last year and G3 is the start of their undoing. Last year makes the W's take less for granted especially for the Finals then they otherwise might.
Please reread the Rest and Relaxation bullet from the Game 1 thread. It applies fully to this bet.
I posit this "road trip" (and given the Warriors have been home for what seems like forever, this is a trip of sorts) particularly the underlined paragraph below, is a shock to the Warriors system and further, would not that shock be its strongest in the first quarter??
The Warriors are immensely well-rested and stay at home, where they've been for quite some time:
Golden State has played 11 of their final 16 games at home, including 6 of their last 7 to end the regular season. They played the absolute minimum on the road by sweeping every single team in the playoffs. Since March 30th, including the playoffs, they've made just 4 road trips: Phoenix, Portland, Utah, and San Antonio.
By the time they leave for Cleveland in Game 3 of the Finals, it will be the first time they've stepped foot in the Eastern time Zone in NINETY FOUR DAYS and they'll have spent only 13 of the prior SIXTY EIGHT DAYS outside of the Bay Area.
That explains why this team is 27-1 SU and 21-7 ATS in their last 28. Being home matters. Familiar surroundings matter. Less wear and tear matters. That is why spreads shift so much for those instances when they occur.
The Warriors have essentially gotten the NBA's version of a Swedish Massage in terms of travel since March 30th.
This is far more likely to impact the Warriors as the game goes on. As a statement of fact, it says nothing about their or Cleveland's likelihood of winning the 1Q.If the Warriors pay any price from this angle, it will start to manifest sometime at the end of the 1st half/during the 2nd half.
As a predominant tennis bettor, it's a common sight to see that players who come into any particular match off the heavier workload in previous rounds than their opponent areinevitably seen to pay the price for that discrepancy not in the 1st set, but in the latter stages of the 2nd set &, if there is one, in the 3rd set as a whole. Slightly different dynamic than what's anticipated here, but it's still in principle the same: the assertion is one player/side is going to suffer physical inertia in a way the other player/side isn't, and the question is how long it takes for that inertia to takes it's toll. Players fresh out of the gate who are not playing b2b games & not off a staggering comeback effort simply aren't likely to betray physical flatness from the word go. IMO Cleveland to win the 3Q if they trail at the half is the bet of this game.
Please reread the Rest and Relaxation bullet from the Game 1 thread. It applies fully to this bet.
I posit this "road trip" (and given the Warriors have been home for what seems like forever, this is a trip of sorts) particularly the underlined paragraph below, is a shock to the Warriors system and further, would not that shock be its strongest in the first quarter??
The Warriors are immensely well-rested and stay at home, where they've been for quite some time:
Golden State has played 11 of their final 16 games at home, including 6 of their last 7 to end the regular season. They played the absolute minimum on the road by sweeping every single team in the playoffs. Since March 30th, including the playoffs, they've made just 4 road trips: Phoenix, Portland, Utah, and San Antonio.
By the time they leave for Cleveland in Game 3 of the Finals, it will be the first time they've stepped foot in the Eastern time Zone in NINETY FOUR DAYS and they'll have spent only 13 of the prior SIXTY EIGHT DAYS outside of the Bay Area.
That explains why this team is 27-1 SU and 21-7 ATS in their last 28. Being home matters. Familiar surroundings matter. Less wear and tear matters. That is why spreads shift so much for those instances when they occur.
The Warriors have essentially gotten the NBA's version of a Swedish Massage in terms of travel since March 30th.
This is far more likely to impact the Warriors as the game goes on. As a statement of fact, it says nothing about their or Cleveland's likelihood of winning the 1Q.If the Warriors pay any price from this angle, it will start to manifest sometime at the end of the 1st half/during the 2nd half.
As a predominant tennis bettor, it's a common sight to see that players who come into any particular match off the heavier workload in previous rounds than their opponent areinevitably seen to pay the price for that discrepancy not in the 1st set, but in the latter stages of the 2nd set &, if there is one, in the 3rd set as a whole. Slightly different dynamic than what's anticipated here, but it's still in principle the same: the assertion is one player/side is going to suffer physical inertia in a way the other player/side isn't, and the question is how long it takes for that inertia to takes it's toll. Players fresh out of the gate who are not playing b2b games & not off a staggering comeback effort simply aren't likely to betray physical flatness from the word go. IMO Cleveland to win the 3Q if they trail at the half is the bet of this game.
This is far more likely to impact the Warriors as the game goes on. As a statement of fact, it says nothing about their or Cleveland's likelihood of winning the 1Q.If the Warriors pay any price from this angle, it will start to manifest sometime at the end of the 1st half/during the 2nd half.
As a predominant tennis bettor, it's a common sight to see that players who come into any particular match off the heavier workload in previous rounds than their opponent areinevitably seen to pay the price for that discrepancy not in the 1st set, but in the latter stages of the 2nd set &, if there is one, in the 3rd set as a whole. Slightly different dynamic than what's anticipated here, but it's still in principle the same: the assertion is one player/side is going to suffer physical inertia in a way the other player/side isn't, and the question is how long it takes for that inertia to takes it's toll. Players fresh out of the gate who are not playing b2b games & not off a staggering comeback effort simply aren't likely to betray physical flatness from the word go. IMO Cleveland to win the 3Q if they trail at the half is the bet of this game.
While what you say can be assumed to be sound IF this was my only and primary angle, I have 5 angles in the OP to buffer my point that it will help Cleveland over Golden State.
The 6 angles as an amalgamation should pay us off.
This is far more likely to impact the Warriors as the game goes on. As a statement of fact, it says nothing about their or Cleveland's likelihood of winning the 1Q.If the Warriors pay any price from this angle, it will start to manifest sometime at the end of the 1st half/during the 2nd half.
As a predominant tennis bettor, it's a common sight to see that players who come into any particular match off the heavier workload in previous rounds than their opponent areinevitably seen to pay the price for that discrepancy not in the 1st set, but in the latter stages of the 2nd set &, if there is one, in the 3rd set as a whole. Slightly different dynamic than what's anticipated here, but it's still in principle the same: the assertion is one player/side is going to suffer physical inertia in a way the other player/side isn't, and the question is how long it takes for that inertia to takes it's toll. Players fresh out of the gate who are not playing b2b games & not off a staggering comeback effort simply aren't likely to betray physical flatness from the word go. IMO Cleveland to win the 3Q if they trail at the half is the bet of this game.
While what you say can be assumed to be sound IF this was my only and primary angle, I have 5 angles in the OP to buffer my point that it will help Cleveland over Golden State.
The 6 angles as an amalgamation should pay us off.
With the line you got cleveland has to be leading at the end of the quarter. A tie pushes. I agree with the idea of coming home down 2-0 and the first quarter play because of that but with the very low amount of time that the cavs have lead in the series I myself can't feel confident with making the play. Then the fact that LeBron has had his struggles playing at home it could take him a quarter or 2 to get warmed up. Game 3 versus Boston he was 1 of 5 with 2 turnovers in the first quarter. But I will mention that Cleveland still won that quarter by 11 points although versus a far more inferior team than the Warriors. In my opinion the first quarter bet is going to come down to if GS comes out in a groove or if it will take them some time to get going. In this situation though if I was rooting for Cleveland I don't know how much I'd like my chances with Lue as my coach. I won't be on either team first quarter though so I really hope you do cash in Scal! BOL man!
I don't play for a .5 pt or 1 pt brian. If Cleveland doesn't make a statement in the first quarter they are done for the next 7.
With the line you got cleveland has to be leading at the end of the quarter. A tie pushes. I agree with the idea of coming home down 2-0 and the first quarter play because of that but with the very low amount of time that the cavs have lead in the series I myself can't feel confident with making the play. Then the fact that LeBron has had his struggles playing at home it could take him a quarter or 2 to get warmed up. Game 3 versus Boston he was 1 of 5 with 2 turnovers in the first quarter. But I will mention that Cleveland still won that quarter by 11 points although versus a far more inferior team than the Warriors. In my opinion the first quarter bet is going to come down to if GS comes out in a groove or if it will take them some time to get going. In this situation though if I was rooting for Cleveland I don't know how much I'd like my chances with Lue as my coach. I won't be on either team first quarter though so I really hope you do cash in Scal! BOL man!
I don't play for a .5 pt or 1 pt brian. If Cleveland doesn't make a statement in the first quarter they are done for the next 7.
I bet the cavs first quarter in both games 1 and 2 and they were both the correct bets. Can't cap those buzzer beaters though. Iggy, at the buzzer and then a heave by durant at the shot clock. Both went in, both bets lost. I said I'd be betting this until it won but tonite's seems a bit too good to be true. Most likely I will hold to my word and bet it again, but the thought of the dubs trying to come out fast on the road does enter the mind here.....For me, first half cavs could be good too. Enjoy scal.
I bet the cavs first quarter in both games 1 and 2 and they were both the correct bets. Can't cap those buzzer beaters though. Iggy, at the buzzer and then a heave by durant at the shot clock. Both went in, both bets lost. I said I'd be betting this until it won but tonite's seems a bit too good to be true. Most likely I will hold to my word and bet it again, but the thought of the dubs trying to come out fast on the road does enter the mind here.....For me, first half cavs could be good too. Enjoy scal.
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