tuesdays thoughts from the sty

good day gentlemen and welcome to the somewhat smelly sty, we call home. i have targeted a few NBA games for tonight that i like. as regular followers of this thread know, the stinky sty crew tends to focus on overs. lets look at NYK at the pistons from the motor city.
first...totals are propelled over when teams dont play defense, and thats where this begins...in terms of defnsive efficiency detroit sits dead last at 109.6 and the knicks are third from last at 108.4...detroit avg slightly over 100 ppg while the knicks score 94...but with both teams struggling defensively, i expect those numbers to rise. avg total pts for all games by the following officials..dan crawford 200 1/2 J T orr 196.7 and Leon Wood 206.. both teams play at or slightly under the avg pace  for the NBA eastern conference...the first pick from a pig is NYK-detroit OVER 198. i will also play the pistons TT over 101 1/2.
next we look to south beach, where the hawks from the ATL battle the heat... these teams combined average right at 211 pts..they rank first and 4th in offensive efficiency and both teams are 7-3 to the over. miami is shooting a heat-check like 52 1/2% from the field and 48% from 3 pt range..both teams are middle of the league in terms of defensive efficiency. the clincher is the three officials sean corbin, brent barnaky, and david guthrie are 18-2-1 combined to the OVER.....make miami over 205 another pick from a pig.
ya'll digest that while i do some more analysis, and i might dig up something else. good luck everyone.

Get em bro 

thanks, Dark.....im trying to find us a few winners in our never ending quest to BEAT THE MAN.

since we like quarter and half plays so much, i put first quarter nba stats in a search and i found a wealth of info.....and the most interesting is minnesota....they play at the second fastest pace at 99.4 of any team in the league besides the 76ers at 99.5. they average a +7 margin of difference in the first quarter, highest in the league. on the road they average a whopping 32.4 pts a game in the first quarter. i will play this info and see if its valid tonight. taking over 51 1/2 first quarter and minn - 1 for the first quarter, and putting both of them in a small action reverse. lets see if these numbers mean anything..

based on the above info and avg 2Q scoring...i am also playing Twolves first half TT over 52 1/2...they rank first in the NBA averaging 57 1/2 ppg in the first half and 57.4 on the road.if they can just shoot at their normal efficiency, this should go over. also, washington is middle of the league on defense, so i dont see that posing a big problem. if minn doesnt cover these quarter and half numbers, it will be their own sloppy play ( turnovers and missed easy shots) that contributes to it...

Right now I just wish my book would work...

On that too Big PIG

MINN/WASH over 51.5 1Q

Good stuff, Pig...I'll probably be tailing a few of those.  Lots of NHL tonight and first up......

Blackhawks (Reg) (+125) - Hawks coming off their best game of the season in a 5-1 domination of San Jose last Sunday evening.  Avs have lost 3 straight and will, again, be without their leading scorer in Matt Duchene.  Hawks' offense #1 in the league averaging 3.57 G/G on 35 S/G which doesn't bode well for Avs netminder Semyon Varlamov who's 2-4 with a 3.05 GAA and a .898 SV % in the month of November.

Coach my book have Blackhawks at -135

CARB.....that would be for FG which includes OT.  I'm banking that the Hawks win in regulation, hence the better odds albeit greater risk.

MInny-Wash 1Q o52

Adding.....

Isles/Leafs o5.5 FG - I'm not huge on historical trends, but this one caught my eye.  Over the past 10 games that these two played, 8 of those have eclipsed this number on an average of 7.1 goals/game.

BTW - the Isles o1.5 2P stat I shared with you last week now sits at 16-5 though a bit too juicy for me this evening.

i know we hate unders.....but ive just been sittin on my butt all day handicapping and something keeps taking me back to the phoenix-sac total, which has climbed steadily today...now at 194 1/2...several factors scream UNDER to me, but i am reluctant , knowing how easy it is for a team to get hot and score like crazy.
here is whta i am sifting through... pace....pace plays into scoring and these 2 teams dont play very fast. this isnt the same phoenix team people are used to. the personality has changed with different coaches and players..of the 30 NBA teams they are 13th in pace and sac is 27th...fourth from the bottom...add to this sac season FG % is only 41 %, the kings just cant score. when you play slowly and dont make but 41 %...its hard to go over and they are 2-7 to the UNDER..and they only avg 93 a game. the suns are 5th in defensive efficiency, while the kings are way down at 23.....avg totals of the 3 officials marc davis 194.5 person bavetta 192.8 and courtney kirkland 188.9... none of these averages are over the total of 194 1/2. suns play better defense,  shoot the ball better at a faster pace..officials trend under..7-15 to the under.. i will make phoenix on the ML and under 195, buying the hook, picks from a pig.

Hey guys, did really well last night;  in hockey and hit another tease.

thx metta. didnt realize the hawks had those 2 out, losing millsaps may hurt and i think gustavo ayon, a pels cast off will start for him....that means al horford may get more shots...so im stayin with the over......as far as twolves 1 Q TT ....dont have quarter TT option...
also, eric bledsoe is out for the suns. gerald green should replace him and be serviceable, but hes not bledsoe...i will add some to the under and im still confident in suns ML..

Book still down, got nothing...

Henry, if you're out there...

a sad thing

coach...making a rare hockey play and my little curly tail is ridin with ya on this, but i got +115..

StL -1/2 -135 BIG.  Blues are one of the top teams and coming off a loss to the red-hot Caps.  Sabres showed slight signs of life after getting their new coach, but the honeymoon ended quickly.  They are still the worst team in the league and no match for the Blues.

I'll return the favor and hop on your NYK o198 FG