12-6 YTD
Blazers/Magic under 218
I've been back and forth on the side and total for this game.
As far as the total goes, I think the under is the play here and I'll tell you why.
This is the first game the Blazers have played against a team with a different playstyle. The Orlando Magic do not have the personnel to be getting caught up in run and gun games, especially with a team like Portland.
Through four games the Magic are averaging right around 100 points, which in today's NBA is LOW. Somehow though, they find themselves 2-2, but could easily could be 0-4.
From the eye test, a few things I see from the Magic that might be contributing to their low scoring outputs are that number one, they're a poor three point shooting team. Number two, the shots that they do shoot are mid ranged jumpers, with not so good shooters in general. Number three, they don't get to the free throw line, probably because they're settling too much for the jumper.
The Magic attempt around 30 shots a game from the mid ranged area and that happens to be Portlands strong defensive area. Add in the fact that Portlands one of the best rebounding teams and doesn't give up second chance points, it's hard to see the Magic cracking their 100 point average. Oh, did I also mention that the Magic are last in 2nd and 3rd quarter PPG averages at under 25 points per quarter?
Portland comes in with some pretty big offensive numbers, but considering the teams they've played against thus far, that's expected. Even though they're sixth in shots made, they're only ranked 20th in assists. They also commit 16 turnovers a game, good for 25th in the league. Ball movement is key against a defense like Orlando that's lengthy and plays with their hands up.
Both teams are middle to late shot clock shooters with few quick shots and that also helps when playing unders. Both teams have a plethora of guys 6-10 and up and getting into the paint for easy baskets probably won't be easy.
All in all, I think normally this total would sit at about the 208-210 range so we're getting around 8 points due to the overall market inflation.